Don’t love Davis starting. I know teams start a center often and in the Big 10 it makes sense to have someone like that to start on Garza, Cockburn, Williams and such even if they’re only playing 10-15 minutes but if Brown is eligible I have no idea why this team wouldn’t play fast and switchy and very aggressive on D with lots of shooting and less classically Big 10. I guess the hope here has to be that Dickinson will be the guy at the 5 and instead of just giving him the job he’s easing into it.
The upside on a Johns-Livers-Wagners-Brooks-Smith lineup with Brown as 6th man, Dickinson and Davis fighting for 15-20 minutes off the bench and maybe 10-15 minutes for Williams backing up the forwards and Jackson getting 5-10 if we need another guard out there just seems higher. Could even start Brown with one of the guards coming off the bench if the idea is to rebound by committee and Livers being a sneaky bad rebounder along with 2 small guards is too big an achilles heel.
I don’t mind playing big in general and I’m definitely being hysterical but I dunno I was so excited to have a Miami Heat assistant coach (as I would have been to get a Dallas, Toronto or Boston assistant) and it feels like maybe we have one from just another team that isn’t necessarily ahead of the curve tactically.
They haven’t even started camp yet so I’d take it with a grain of salt. Hunter will likely start, and once Brown is finally granted immediate eligibility (fingers crossed) there’s a very good chance he will as well
I am hoping that Johns at center is a real option and opens up a lot of possibilities. It seems inevitable…no matter what Martelli said previously.
As for minutes, I don’t think there are really any to spare for Williams if Brown is eligible. Not sure how you get him 10-15 in that situation. Maybe a Nunez-like cameo…except that Nunez might still be getting those. Zeb might get a few just because we need guards, but if Smith is solid then it won’t be much.
I am still with Dylan that Brown is the perfect sixth man and I don’t love a lineup with Brooks, three forwards, and a center. If I were the opposing coach I would press and trap that lineup and blitz ball screens to see if Eli and Franz have improved their handles or not.
I think we will see it, but I am hoping Smith holds his own for 25mpg.
If Davis is healthy, he’s in the starting lineup for Game 1 (and likely at least the first month of the season). Doesn’t mean he’ll play more than 15-20 minutes. But, much like he did with Nunez opening games last season, Coach Howard seems to put a priority on experience to open a game.
Especially with limited off-season access to the younger players, Coach is likely to open with what he knows and tinker from there.
Coach Howard has shown a preference for playing big. I think Johns sees time at the 5 but unless there’s an injury to Davis/Dickinson (or Dickinson just isn’t ready for the speed of the college game), I don’t think Coach Howard plays Johns more than 10mpg at small ball “5”
And as long as David and Dickinson play how we expect, that 10mpg is about perfect. The true bigs are at 10-20 each, Johns is 10 and also available for some matchups where he plays more.
Nunez didn’t start because of his experience last year, he started because Franz was hurt. If he could’ve, Juwan would’ve gone with the less experienced option.
Indirectly that should also illustrate why expecting Dickinson to play more than 20mpg (at least initially) is unlikely too. Bigs take time to develop their basketball skills (avoiding fouls at the top of the list) and their physical skills. There isn’t a Michigan center who played >20-25mpg early in his career since Juwan himself.
Dickinson will probably play a lot both because he’s talented and because the depth chart is shallow…but don’t be surprised if it is a true 3-man platoon for a while with a three getting 10-18 minutes
I 100% see your point about not expecting big minutes for centers in general, but I would caution against making any conclusions regarding Dickinson’s playing time ceiling based on Austin Davis’ career thus far. Austin is a great veteran to have, I’m glad he’s in the program and he will be a vital asset this upcoming season, but his <20 minutes played in his career so far are more a product of his skill level (and playing behind upperclassmen Moe Wagner and Jon Teske didn’t help).
I’ve been harping on Dickinson being a >20 minute player all offseason and I’m gonna ride the bandwagon until I’m proven totally wrong. He’s basically a blue chip recruit and the position is wide wide open, tough to compare to past Center situations IMO.
I don’t really think it is fair to compare the two. I don’t think there’s any doubt that Dickinson has a significantly higher ceiling in the near and long term.
The reason they are so often lumped together is that they both project to be poor defenders and really struggle with lateral movement.
Brown should be a perfect 6th man who can play 25+ minutes at the 2-4 and bring a lot of veteran presence off the bench.
As for Center, I agree that I would love to see more of Johns there when the matchup is right. I’m fine with Davis starting when the season begins (assuming he is healthy). But I would hope and expect that Hunter would develop into the starter later in the season.
I was lumping them together not so much because I think Davis and Dickinson are all that similar (though they are both large, earth-bound guys with limited athleticism). I was lumping ALL centers together from the standpoint that they are a lot like offensive linemen - rarely are they ready for a major role right away. Here’s recent Michigan history, knowing that Dickinson is his own player and not exactly like any of these guys:
Castleton - barely played as a freshman
Teske - barely played as a freshman
Wagner - barely played as a freshman
Wilson (not a center, but a “big”) - barely played as a freshman
Doyle - played a lot out of necessity…still averaged 18mpg
McGary - didn’t crack 20 minutes until the eighteenth game, didn’t consistently until tourny
Morgan - redshirted
Before that you’re dealing with guys like Hunter, Sims, Asselin, Young…none of whom played a lot early. Even Robert Traylor followed more of a McGary path.
I think the minutes expectation should be similar to McGary - some games he’s going to play well and crack 20 minutes. Some games he’s going to get a bunch of fouls and play 8.
Ehhhhh… Totally different situation than those guys though. Dickinson doesn’t have an established starting big man in front of him. And Juwan seems more willing to play more guys than Beilein was.
Castleton - Teske ahead of him
Teske - Wagner ahead of him
Wagner - extremely raw and skinny as a freshman
Wilson wasn’t really a big coming in. He was a skinny wing that had to develop toughness to play inside.
McGary had two experienced bigs to share time with and Morgan had already started the two seasons prior
Morgan was questioned as to whether he was even a Big Ten caliber player out of HS. The redshirt year really helped and he became a valuable starter as a redshirt freshman.
Needless to say, I’ll be shocked if Dickinson has games where he only plays 8 mpg. Davis isn’t a major roadblock like some other previous centers because he has never played big minutes. Dickinson played elite competition in prep school and EYBL. He is also massive and very old for a Freshman (he will be 20 years old when the season starts). I don’t think you can really compare this to other situations. Dickinson will play a lot of minutes.
Yeah, I don’t think this discussion is really about minutes even, or how many minutes a freshman big can play. The bigger issue to my eyes is that Davis and Dickinson both have the same weakness: mobility and defense.
That just doesn’t give you much flexibility as far as gameplanning or making adjustments.
Do you think that’s something they can scheme around? Not totally dissimilar from the concept of having 35-40 minutes at PG taken by a complete non-shooting threat, it was never a matter of game planning or adjusting by replacing that piece, but by scheming around it. Obviously Simpson improved as a shooter a good amount by the end of his career, but do you think there’s similarity between that concept and how they will have to treat defense at the 5 this year? I just have a hard time believing Johns is a legitimate option there.
I don’t really see them as similar circumstances. Obviously there are different things you can do but the difference between a weakness on offense and defense is that the opponent can prioritize how involved your weakness is in the game when it is on defense.
I think that interior defense will probably be a limiting factor, especially if Johns isn’t brought along as an option there. If Michigan is healthy and Chaundee is eligible, there’s not a particularly high upside path to significant playing time for Johns at the four and he could address a big issue at the five. I think it would be a huge mistake not to prioritize that option (and right now we have no idea either way).
I just think a flexible coach looks this group of players:
Bigs: Dickinson - Davis
Forwards/Wings: Wagner - Livers - Brown - Johns - Williams
Guards: Brooks - Smith - Jackson
and sees that 4 of probably our 6 best players this season (let’s say one of Smith or Dickinson cracks the top 6) are wings/forwards and so we have to play fast and aggressive on D like many teams outside the Big 10 tend to.
If you were hiring a one year assistant coach for this roster to fill in, you’d probably go with like a West Virginia assistant who comes from a style where you play a ton of interchangeable wings which means flying around on defense very aggressively apart from the probably 15-20 minutes Dickinson is in the game and on offense lots of Wagner and moving the ball around to let whoever has a mismatch on him drive or run a pick and roll since most teams can’t throw out 4 or 5 competent perimeter defenders.
I don’t see this as a flying around on defense type of team. We have wings sure, but that’s a very specific style of defense you have to recruit for and I don’t really see any of our guys fitting that. MAYBE Wagner since he’s long. But definitely not Livers or Brown or Johns or Williams. Then our 2 guards are small and we have no rim protection really