Great points John. Our 4’s and 5’s get worn down on defense. The worst part about it is, neither position is capable of wearing down their defender which is part of the reason teams consistently have their best shooting nights against us.
It’s a bad recipe.
Yep. Irvin has an advantage against guys like that on offense but there’s a big difference in wearing someone down physically and driving past them once or twice a game. I truly feel for Irvin, he has back surgery and night in and night out he has to be the most physical guy on the team and on top of that try to be a plus offensive player. That’s a whole lot to take on. Oh and I forgot, the seniors are out so trying to be the leader of the team now. Chatman being a big disappointment so far is really hurting this team. Ranked #27 we have gotten nothing close to that. MAAR and Dawkins were both in the 300s. It frustrates me when chatman does come in and makes a play or two he comes out in a minute and a half. No idea how someone can gain confidence that way but I’m not the coach. Hope he keeps his head up and keeps trying.
I think Young and Cain are both upper tier prospects, and both underrated. Instant impact is a bit more difficult to project, so I’ll keep it within the context of UM.
Young - I’ve watched hours of full game film on him, he’s already playing his college position in HS (3/4), rather than the oversized guards JB traditionally brings in (Duncan, Dawkins, DJ) for the 3/4 spot. He’s a legit 6’8 and 225-230lbs already. From that standpoint, he’s already ahead of the curve and there will be less ‘transition cost’. Young is proficient at playing the FT line spot against zone defenses (very similar to how we used Mitch vs. Syracuse) where he is a really nice passer, he also plays the wing and is great at catch and shoot scenarios, also used as back to the basket post player on occasion and is sufficient there as well, also displays great ability and feel for when to cut on the baseline and finishes with authority (recently had a monster dunk on Derek Culver), also a willing rebounder that isn’t afraid/timid of contact…versatility is the word best used to describe Young. He’s very good at a lot of things, but not elite at any single thing.
Ballhandling - He has above average ballhandling for a 6’8 kid, I’ve seen him create separation on defenders off the bounce and finish.
Shooting - excellent from deep in catch and shoot scenarios, has shown ability to shoot off bounce as well, but I haven’t witnessed this in great volume
Passing - really good passer from FT line area and generally a solid passer all around
Rebounding - shows willingness to mix it up and get physical, decent ball pursuit. Don’t think he’s a McGary level rebounder, but certainly an improvement over any one on the current roster at the 3/4 spot
Finishing - definitely has good instincts in terms of timing on cuts, understands spacing, finishes with dunks and effectively uses body to get into defender’s chest when laying it up
Defense - think he will be an upgrade defending back to the basket post players of the B10, certainly better that Irvin, Dawkins, Robinson…not even close to be honest. Don’t think he has the lateral agility to check wings on the perimeter though
Athleticism - above average athlete with above average verticality, above average strength as a HS kid, lateral agility seems about average
UM Projection - custom made for the 4 at UM. Has all the offensive skills you want at the 4 spot, while not sacrificing size, post defense, athleticism…think he’s pretty close to a sure thing to be an above average player at minimum. Would certainly be an upgrade from any 3/4 player on the current roster IMO. I think Young would be a rotation player as freshman, and would be a major contributor by his sophomore year. Probably doesn’t have the upside that Cain has, but most likely has a higher floor if that makes sense.
Cain - a bit more difficult to project because you don’t know what position he will play at UM. Cain’s natural position is the 3…but we all know JB may be inclined to play him at the 4. Cain is 6’6, 177, with a 36.5 inch vertical as of October 2015. Cain is your prototype 3, a jack of all trades…with good size and length at that position. Cain also plays the FT line area for Cornerstone, but not used as a back to the basket type player. Cain is used primarily as a catch and shoot type wing at Cornerstone that rebounds and block shots, but is much more of ballhandler in AAU/Camp settings. Again versatility is the term, Cain can do a lot of things well, but probably not elite at any single thing.
Ballhandling - above average ballhandler at 6’6, certainly better than GR3 and Irvin at the same age. Displays ability to beat defender off the bounce with change of direction and is above average at PnR situations both creating for himself and others
Shooting - Cain is a good catch and shoot player from deep, and absolutely great from midrange; a bit better than Young at shooting off the bounce IMO
Passing - more of a PnR passer than Young, Young the better passer from the FT line
Rebounding - very good ball pursuit, will come from 8-12 feet away to get rebound, but doesn’t use his body as effectively as Young to box out defender, relies more on jumping ability because he can
Defense - not strong enough at this point to defend a back to the basket B10 player, better equipped to check wings than Young…think he would still be an upgrade over Irvin, Dawkins, Robinson on the post, and certainly on the perimeter
Athleticism - Cain already has above average verticality for a B10 player as a junior in HS…has ability to reach a 40inch vert with Sanderson’s aid; strength not where it needs to be for B10 level; lateral agility is average, straight line speed average/above average
UM Projection - a natural 3 on both Offense and Defense. Has all the skills you want for a 3, while not sacrificing size and athletic ability on D at that position. However, if he plays the 4, you would be giving up something on defense, particularly in the post. If he plays the 3, I think he would be a rotational player as a freshman, and be a major contributor as a sophomore or junior. Would probably need a RS year if playing the 4, but you known JB doesn’t typically RS freshman that can play. Would certainly be an upgrade from Dawkins, Robinson…will be better than Irvin as an upperclassmen IMO. Just depends on how JB uses him…would be better served at the 3, but with JB and his approach you just don’t know. In sum, I think Young is more of a sure thing in a UM context because he has a defined position, whereas Cain will probably be the better player as an upperclassmen but difficult to project early on because of position questions.
Think you’re selling Cain way short if you think he and Watson are the same player. Cain has 2-3 inches on Watson while being a year younger. Additionally, Cain MUCH further ahead of Watson at the same age in terms of ballhandling and shooting. Cain also more athletic.
I see Watson as project/developmental type, it will take him a few years to be a contributor IMO. I think Cain is a better prospect, with better upside, and more potential to be an instant impact player.
Fantastic Write up MattD. You’re not allowed to leave the site again.
Thanks. Great recap. I didn’t realize that Young was a legit 6’8, 225lbs. That is reassuring. Cain sounds very intriguing, but I share your concern that Beilein would play him out of position.
I haven’t really been following 2017 recruiting too closely. I know Young currently has more high major offers. Does anyone know if we are in good shape with these 2?
From my limited knowledge, I’d say Cain has more interest in UM than Young. Young seems intrigued with Butler at the moment…but I think more high majors will show interest come AAU season, as Young is vastly underrated.
I’ve personally witnessed Cain on campus no less than 3 times during the past 9 months…the interest is there. This may not go over well…but it is factually true. Cain’s camp has been publicly lobbying for UM interest…which kind of adds fuel to the narrative that we don’t recruit kids from the city. Whether or not it is true, I don’t honestly know, but I do know that is the perception for a decent faction of the Detroit basketball community whether justified or not.
Great analysis Matt. Out of curiosity, do you see Cain working himself into the top 100 before all is said and done and if not, is level of competition the only factor that is holding back the general estimation of his abilities?
Interesting point re the community perception of UM in Detroit. I don’t have any direct exposure to the basketball community there but it seems to me that if we’re going to go for under-the-radar guys anyway, might as well make an effort to recruit them in the city to build credibility there… seems we are doing the opposite.
Cain is already #70 on Rivals (which is odd because they are generally the least reliable bball recruiting service IMO). I think moreso than HS competition, it is AAU that is holding him back…Cain plays for the Detroit Stars (not a very big/prominent program) in the summer. If Cain played for The Family (Nike), Michigan Mustangs (Adiddas), or 1 Nation (Under Armour)…he would get much more exposure and likely be a consensus top 100 player.
Not going to speak on prioritizing guys from Detroit…just too polarizing on this board to have an in depth discussion.
Just took a look, appears as though Cain is finally in 247 database…checks in at #185, which is much too low IMO. Scout also has him as a generic 3 star now
You think young is legit 6 8, I didn’t think he looked that tall. I thought 6 7 was s stretch. I’m with you on young, I’ve been beating his drum heAvy. He’s a way higher ranked prospect then given credit for. He’s top 60 to be based on who they got ranked in that area.
I think we need to full court press young. I see why he likes Wisconsin and butler, they are more his style. He fits in perfectly there. When asked About us on that list dylAn posted his response was troubling. He said its always nice to get offered by a good basketball school with tradition. I think he probably sees us as soft and not up his alley. I’d love for them to recruit him heavy. I think he’s exactly what we need at the four. I’ve also watched many games of his. As you know they post all their games online. He has a great all around game. If we can’t find a way to get him in the fold I’ll be heart broken.
I think he should be priority number one. I also agree with you that an athletic wing should be the next most important priority over a pg. Simpson Poole and rahkman will be sufficient. A class of Poole young and Cain would be a step in the right direction. I like Cain too not as much as you guys and certAinly not as much as young. Coach b needs to sell to young that he is the missing cog in the wheel here. We can’t let butler Xavier or Wisconsin get him. Young is so solid I think he could possibly start right away. He’d at least get big minutes. Hold off on the pg till 18
Your review of young is spot on by the way. The one thing id add is he seems to have a nice iq, very heady player and on top of all that he has those intangibles that hard to put into words, but he just has that it factor that winner mentAlity and style.
The video I have seen shows young is a good player. That player evaluation may be giving him a bit too much credit. I didn’t see him play too many good looking teams. I don’t know if he would play right away but in a few years he could be an above average player. All Michigan needs is for him to be tough and finish around the rim. We are missing that pretty badly.
Sly you will appreciate this recruiting story I was just told. Huggy Bear was at Warren Harding recruiting Culver. Guess they want him real bad. Huggy took their coach out after the game. Huggy got WH’s coach so drunk that the guy couldn’t get out of bed for 2 straight days! Hahaha.
They beat Huntington prep. He was matched up with bridges a lot. He plays some good teams and succeeds. Jmiller he really has a great all around game. He’s so solid in every aspect. Watch him more. He scores inside outside blocks shots. Great finisher. Sneaky athlete. Hits turnarounds. Knock down from outside. I really don’t see many weaknesses. And they just win. Picture his development through the summer and next year.
Culver is a huggy type guy too man. Might be to heavy to press but he could bang down low. Huggins obviously knows how to have a good time. I’m not even a drinker and if drink with him.
It would be great if kids like culver would want to play center for us.
I believe you boogie. I’m just saying the film I’ve seen he is by far the biggest/best player in the court. I hope he is that good because groce at illinois offered him recently too
Watch McKinley and Huntington high lights. Both solid competition. I think someone said he played culver recently and warren Harding, I’m going to try and find that on you tube.
Right but we have one PG soooo…I’m done with Dakich type player at PG.
Poole, MAAR are both SG’s. Won’t play PG in D1.
I like Cain too. Guess it just depends on space.
can someone just breakdown real quick in a paragraph or so whats going on in the 2017 class…we have
poole but are we in the serious running for anyone else as good a caliber as Poole and how many kids we could sign in this class?