2017-18 Bracketology


#854

They just can’t D up at all and they aren’t an absolutely elite offensive team to make up for it. Trevon Blueitt is straight up just a jump-shooter. Can’t get to the rack or pass, so he’s a guy who is very very liable to have a 1-14 shooting night when’s off (like vs. Providence for example).


#855

For a big upset I’d look to Georgia State over Cinci. GSU has a real talent in Simonds and then some guys who can hit the 3. They’ll go small and Cinci will kill them on the glass, but Cinci is inept on offense sometimes. I generally feel like that bottom half of the South bracket has the potential for wackiness.


#856

Wichita is an awful location, middle of no where, Denver is 7-8 hour driver. Flying to Kansas City, Tulsa, or OKC from NY is $700+, not cheaper than flying to Wichita. On the other hand, flying form NYC to LAX is 400 round trip.


#857

It’s a long way away, but I’m not relishing the thought of potentially getting North Carolina again in the S16.

There was about 25-28 minutes of that game that was a complete ass kicking.

We’re a different team now, but I have real reservations about us beating them in a rematch.

Just don’t like that matchup for us. Hopefully they get beat before we “may” play them again.


#858

They’re certainly a tough team, but keep in mind that we played them:

…on the road, as opposed to a totally neutral site (L.A.).

…before we’d really figured out how to play D the way Yaklich wanted.

…before Simpson had emerged as our top point guard.

I think we’re a very different team and it will show if we face them.


#859

Yes, this! I feel like they couldn’t have picked a better place to neutralize all the different fanbases we have around the country. Freaking Wichita.


#860

I’ll say this, if you’re rooting against the sparties and you know I am, unless you think Syracuse can beat Sparty, I think you have to root for ASU in Dayton. Because otherwise facing the Syracuse zone would be great preparation for potentially facing Duke a week later. I had a long talk with a Duke student a few minutes ago (his family’s dog is one of my dog’s favorites) and lol, it is really an enemy of my enemy is my friend situation. They’re really rooting for us and I know I’m really rooting for them.

Of course, we both need to get through the first rounds to be in position to do the job.

Oops, got ahead of myself. TCU vs. ASU/Cuse winner is the opponent. Of course, GO BUCKNELL!


#861

Okay, so listening to the second show, there’s a real theme emerging. “And so… to be consistent with my preseason prediction… I’m going with Michigan State.”

Person after person has said this. On both the shows. And it couldn’t be any dumber. So what they’re saying is that they got a full season’s worth of evidence but they’d prefer to go with their snap low-information pick before the first ball was tipped. Before anyone showed what they were made up, what their weaknesses are, before anyone improved or failed to improve. Seems like sound thinking.

:roll_eyes:


#862

The same people saying that crap picked us to go to the final four or elite eight in the same segment. I guess they must have picked Michigan to go far before the season too…bunch of freaking Nostrodamus’.


#863

I think it’s more a foolish love of consistency and they want to have that one thing that they can say they’ve stuck to their guns on. Of course if there’s ever been a thing you shouldn’t be consistent on it’s your pre-season pick vs. your pre-tournament pick. Because, you know, a season’s worth of new information.


#864

I just don’t see them getting past Duke.


#865

Isn’t the preseason poll actually a pretty good predictor of NCAA tournament success?


#866

Is it? Would like to see exactly what that means. I mean, picking the most talented teams in terms of returners and incoming recruits, it’s not like you’re going to predict poorly, in a macro sense. Certainly better than you would do just picking random teams. But it’s also hard for me to believe it’s anywhere near as good as anything based on an actual season worth of play and results.


#867

If seeding is based in part on the bias of preseason expectations, and higher seeds have supposedly an easier road to advancing in the tournament along with an increased likelihood of playing close to home, then you can link name brand bias to post season success…but don’t worry, eventually Kansas will play a well coached or equally talented team and lose.


#868

https://kenpom.com/blog/the-preseason-ap-poll-is-great/


#869

I’m not saying it’s gospel, but IIRC it’s a solid predictor since the preseason poll is based on pure talent essentially. I say this as someone that totally agrees with you in regard to MSU. Even a month ago I was sold on them going to the Final Four, but I don’t see it anymore.

Thanks to @ReegsShannon for finding it.


#870

Look forward to digging into that article.

Really worried about us getting through our first two, but really starting to strategize to get tickets to the West Regional just in case…

@ReegsShannon, so that was a fast read. I get what he’s saying, but I mean no one is using the AP rankings at the end of the season to pick their tournament who knows anything. They’re looking at the metrics rankings. His survey also cuts off at 2010, and I wonder if the landscape hasn’t changed quite a bit in the last 8 years, with less great teams and more good teams. He doesn’t provide a particularly robust data presentation, and the preseason #1 being your best guess is not hard to believe - what did it end up 6 for 21 vs 3 for 21? Sure, the most talented team in the country or just about the most talented is probably as good a bet as any. More to say later, but I think that article more shows the issues with the in-season polling product than anything else. I’d take metrics driven rankings overlaid by a good eye test or issues test if you really know the game over the preseason list. I think it would take a more deep dive article than that to convince me that a season’s worth of actual information isn’t more helpful than that group think.


#871

In the years since 2010 the Preseason AP Poll #1(tourney finish in parentheses): Ohio State(S16), Kentucky (Champ), Indiana (S16), Kentucky (Runner up), Kentucky (F4), UNC(Runner Up), Duke (2nd round).

Plus I think you ultimately agree with the conclusion of the article, he says it’d be more valuable to have 50 experts (as in like real experts, not Dan Dakich or Dickie V) who would just vote on who the best team is at this moment, it would be pretty valuable.


#872

I’ll say this - if those people got together and voted for sparty, I’d think there’s some bias they can’t get past in their selections. Could sparty win the tournament? Sadly, yes. But do I think they’re the best team in the country right now? Honestly? No freaking way.


#873

Kind of funny, KPI was a resume metric and it was absolutely terrible ranking the teams by their actual seeds.

How was it even added to the resume metrics to begin with?