2017-18 Bracketology


#62

I agree the result (win/loss) is the most important thing. I disagree on impact of margin. Margin of victory/defeat is an additional datapoint in comparing teams — within some reason.

Maybe we’re talking “bump in selection” differently. In this case, Michigan losing 2 games to a Top5 ranked Purdue by a total of 5 points…tends to support Michigan’s ranking somewhere in the 20s. However, had Michigan lost this game in similar fashion to the game at Nebraska, maybe the first meeting (last possession game) looks like a fluke and maybe Michigan isn’t really that close to top competition. Same win/loss total, different evaluation of the results.

(In my opinion not much difference between say a 16-17 point win and a 25-30 point win — comfortable margin either way; no need to run up the score beyond a range where you’re coasting to victory)


#63

Michigan is a #6 seed on Jerry Palm’s latest bracketology updated this morning. He had Michigan as a #7 seed prior to last night’s loss to Purdue.


#64

Oh man that would be an awesome draw too. Here’s to hoping we see something similar on Selection Sunday.

Also, I think the LSU loss is weighed heavily by Palm. He seems to fluctuate Michigan based on when LSU is in the top 100 RPI or out. He’s big on historical RPI selection data.


#65

I would do anything for this draw. And a potential elite 8 rematch with Purdue


#66

Heck, second round would likely be Clemson (are they REALLY a 3 seed!!!) and would love to show Donnal what’s up. I know that we arent supposed to have any hard feelings about the situation and it is viewed as a mutually beneficial grad transfer, but I would still like to stomp his team a bit… no different than OSU and Dakich.


#67

I would laugh so damn hard if Michigan State got a 3 seed and their path was Wright State, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Duke just to get to the final four.

South Carolina, Clemson, Auburn, Purdue is a cakewalk compared to that


#68

Not with “Turning a blind-eye” Hollis leading the committee.


#69

Not sure he’ll be leading the committee anymore.


#70

Wooooooooooooow. People had been calling for it but it still seems unexpected. GOOD.


#71

After last year, South Carolina might be the scariest game of that bunch. Don’t know much about them or their personnel but they completely locked down M last year. Is Auburn any good???


#72

I haven’t watched Auburn this season, but believe they are 18-2 without one or maybe even two players that are out due to the FBI investigations. Not sure I’m buying Auburn or any team from the SEC as a #2 seed. Would be thrilled to see Michigan a #7 seed up against a #2 Auburn for a trip to the Sweet 16. Loved the beat down Beilein put on Bruce Pearl and Tennessee back in 2011.


#73

THis. I’m sorry unless it’s Kentucky or Florida I rarely can take sec ball seriously. South Carolina was sick last year I know but still.

Honestly I truly believe we’re a top 15 team. I wish we had snagged one or both of those Purdue losses so rolls would recognize. I’m really worried about " bad losses" to teams like nw, minny and penny
St. Those teams are more talented then their records.

The one thing though that gives me hope is that besides that Nebraska loss this team hasn’t really had a letdown or a game where they fail to show up. Seems like they’ve avoided a lot of the usual let downs or trap games and won games we’d normally lose in other years.

Almost our losses have been " good losses" in games on the road that we had rightvyhere. I hope the committee recognizes this. Add all the quality wins at mich st, at Texas, Maryland , vcu, ucla and I think of we can take care of business we will rise up to a 4 seed.


#74

Michigan hasn’t lost a Big Ten game at home to a 100+ RPI team in a loooong time. (End of year RPI)

It can obviously happen in any of these games, but it’s rare and usually doesn’t happen with Beilein teams. Heck, even losses at RPI 100+ teams aren’t very common.

I’m like you, I was/am worried this team could slip up in a few games they’re expected to win, especially at the Kohl Center or at Northwestern. When I looked back to see how often this occurred, it’s crazy to see how rare it actually happens for Beilein and Michigan.


#75

I will always refer to that as the Air Stu game. Never gets old.


#76

I don’t think Texas stays there if they make it, but they’re pretty close to the top 25 RPI.

Michigan might have two top 25 RPI road wins when all is said and done. That’s huge for the resume. Beat OSU and that’s some high quality wins for seeding.


#77

Palm has Michigan as a 6

Lunardi as a 7

Win the next 3 and Michigan can really focus on playing for seeding IMO


#78

Obviously, lots of basketball to go, but what do you believe our realistic ceiling/basement is seeding wise??


#79

Think there’s way too much basketball left as you say. Basically 5 of Michigan’s last 6 games are going to be 50-50 type of toss ups. Games with a <3 point spread in either way. That means things can really go in any direction.

I think if you split those games 3-3 down the stretch, you probably stay right around a 7/8. Deviate significantly from that track and you could maybe talk seriously about a 6 or a 9?

The trouble is that there just aren’t that many quality win opportunities. Even in the Big Ten Tourney, Michigan is likely to get Nebraska which is just a good win not a signature win unless you are talking about playing til Sunday.


#80

I don’t know if we still need a “signature win” when Michigan State is hovering around a 1 seed and they don’t have a top 20 win on their ledger. If we finish the season 5-1 and can get a 21 or 22 win Nebraska team in the Big 10 tournament I think we can be in the discussion for a 4 or 5 seed.


#81

Yeah, I say it more in the sense there aren’t a lot of games left on the schedule that are resume boosters, moreso just games that are another win. Depending how Maryland does down the stretch you are looking at 1 or 2 tier A games left on the schedule.