2017-18 Bracketology


#42

How many bids will the SEC get? They currently have 10 teams ranked between 14-67 in KenPom and 10 (not the same 10) ranked between 9-56 in RPI. Lunardi gives them 8 bids.

Team     KenPom RPI Lunardi
Tennessee 14     13   5
Auburn    18      9   4
Florida   23     26   5
Kentucky  33     17   5
Texas A&M 34     37   9
Missouri  36     38  10
Arkansas  43     23   9
LSU       56     81
Alabama   59     35  10
Georgia   67     54
USC       80     56

#43

I’ll go with 6 because there’s too many teams in the 9-10 range. I’m going to assume at least a couple fall off. Plus, Sexton has been injured so it’s hard to count on Bama. A&M is in a free fall as well.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see 8, but I’ll guess 6!


#44

Since it looks like the Big Ten may only get four, there will be extra spots for other conferences to snatch up the 2-4 additional spots that the big ten typically gets


#45

Just keep winning…Nebraska could win out. We should finish the last 8 games 6-2. We need the JB bump for a big finish. I hope we can avoid the drama of the Maryland game. Go Blue!


#46

Honestly I get the measurements and rankings favor the big twelve and the sec but I’d still take a lot of our teams over theirs. Big 12 is overhyped every year and they always falter in the tourney outside of the occasional Kansas run.

Betting on that conference to fail and for big ten teams to come through works often for me in pools.


#47

I travel a lot for work and end up watching a lot of Big 12 and PAC 10 games…I constantly think to myself, “these guys would get yanked in a heartbeat if they played for some of the B1G coaches (JB for sure)”. Talent is talent, and the B1G didn’t get it done in the non-conference, so probably not much benefit of the doubt when selection and seeding comes into play.


#48

I agree, but I’ve won this pool 4 times in the last ten years. The pool has 200-220 entries, everybody putting in ten bucks a sheet. Now you can fill out up to 5 I believe. I usually do 3-4 depending on the year. I normally keep the same final 4 or close to and rotate winners in tough years. Last year I won with a brCket that had a final 4 of Wisconsin, gonzaga, Oregon unc. Unc over the zags. every round is worth 32 so getting the champ is essential.

Two years ago I was so accurate where my two brackets won either way on the finals. I had Wisconsin over duke and then duke over Wisconsin in the other.

My point besides bragging here is I very rarely back big 12 teams and their often very overhyped. Every year I hear about how deep and good they are but it never translates. I haven’t followed closely enough this year to write it off but I’m confident that although the big ten crapped the bed so they can’t really improve their resumes at this point I’d still put my money on say a northwestern versus Kansas st or us versus say Texas tech in a one game scenario.

I’m worried about some " bad losses" coming up against sAy northwestern or Iowa or penn st because I believe those teams have more talent then it’s shown.


#49

Yeah - I tend to avoid the Big 12 teams as well. My worst showings in pools are usually when Kansas does well…or when Trey knocks them out and I was too scared to pick that win lol.

I do think that, because of the non-conf results THIS year, its harder to argue that our league is as deep…but at the same time, on a neutral court, I don’t think the difference is as dramatic as the bracketologists may think.


#50

I think you won those years because you successfully picked both championship matchups, not because you avoided the B12 lol


#51

At the end of the day, I think 5 B1G teams will get in. 4 seem clear right now, and one other will likely go on a late run and emerge as a Last4 in team — Maryland or Nebraska seem to best positioned, maybe Northwestern or Penn State (strong BPI, poor RPI)


#52

I think Charles Matthews is totally fine with our scheduling of boat anchors and wishes we were playing some now.


#53

I think tonight is a pretty good example of how margin of victory/defeat has a place in seeding: Purdue has been beating teams by 20+ pts, and we played them to the wire, on the road, when they were firing on all cylinders. Our Purdue-induced losses are better than most everyone elses’.


#54

Our AdjO and AdjD are almost identically ranked now after the Purdue game. 33 on O, 30 on D.

I know Dylan tweeted that we are 10th in the B1G in eFG% against, I’m curious how much of that has been FT or 3 pt “luck”


#55

Lol this is correct, but others did as well. My point is I rarely take big 12 teams far. Like one of the above posters posted whenever Kansas goes far I usually do terrible.

I like west va though. Maybe would back them.


#56

Trust me, NOT trying to jinx it at all! Here’s a fun question though, anybody remember the last time Michigan lost to a team that ended with a 100+ RPI?

Figured this is relevant for Bracketogy purposes given how the schedule starts to shake out the next 3 weeks.

Hint: You’ll immediately know the season but probably not the team that first comes to mind.


#57

To be fair, the game you are referring to would be a quadrant 2 not quadrant 3 loss :slight_smile:


#58

But Michigan lost and Purdue won. That’s the most important thing. I don’t think you should get a bump in NCAA Tournament selection because you lost by 1 and not 20.


#59

Haha indeed it would be, but barely. You knew it immediately with that quick answer too, no cheating to look it up.


#60

I did look up the exact number but I guessed the game. :slight_smile:


#61

Ha getting the game was the true answer anyway. I honestly forgot about this loss until looking it up.