Palm with a 7 seed
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T-Rank has us as a 6 if the season ended today, but projected to a 7.
Thatās probably about right, but I still have the bad feeling that weāre going to end up seeded a notch below where we think we should be. Too many games against very low rated RPI teams has done that to us in the past.
I feel like our likely seeding this year is more due to lack of quality wins. Wouldnāt say itās due to anchors from 200+ RPI. Loss to LSU and northwestern hurtā¦but the down year in the big ten will likely deflate our seed. Road wins at Iowa and Wisconsin are useless this year. Stealing one against Purdue wouldāve put us near the 5 lineāwhich I feel is about where we should be qualitatively. Just couldnāt close that out or at OSU/Nebraska.
Luckily those wins at Texas and against UCLA have really helped as those teams come on here late.
But Iām looking at the possibility of playing three quality games guaranteed to close the season. Plenty of opportunity to sneak up to the 4-5 rangeābut as with any year we just have to beat good teams (on the road and on neutral floors) to have a legit claim on 4-5 line.
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Weāre a 7 seed on Crashing the Dance now. I think we were an 11 seed to their calculations before OSU.
Iām not gonna lie buckets Iām shocked as you are on that .
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Thatās still underseeded imo. Two top ten wins , one on the road then ucla, Texas coming on , Maryland still a solid win as well.
I get the big ten flunked out but what happened to the eye test? 7 seed even if weāre the top one implies weāre at best the 28th best team in the country. What a load of crap. Thereās no doubt in my mind this group is top 15. Iād put my money on it to thatās how much faith I have.
Two of our losses by a basket against a top 5ish team. Another versus unc who Iām confident will finish top ten. Another against a top 25 Ohio st. We blew the Lsu gahe which is a bad loss. Raped by Nebraska but thatās the outlier here. I canāt remember who eise we lost to. Oh yes nw . We all know thatās not a bad loss on the road but alas the numbers wonāt support that. Had they beat msu and gone on a run like they should have then maybe they get on the bubble.
Either way this team has many narrow defeats and 5 nice wins. We need to help our cause and win out, normally Iād be resigned to the fact that weād lose one if not two here but this team feels different. They havenāt had too many let down games this year. Avoided lots of traps against teams fighting for their lives with talent who underachieved ( minny, Maryland, nw both times). Iād be surprised if they donāt win one here.
This teams d and rebounding has allowed us to stay in games and win games theyād lose in years past. I just hope they match penn st and marylahds intensity as both teams are playing for their seasons and need to get hot and stay hot. Terps are probably done but weād look great on both resumes. If md beat us abd whoever else they play plus string 3 wins together to get deep in the tourney maybe their back on the bubble? Either way we need to show up and realize weāre getting their best shot. This group seems to bring the energy everygame so Iām optimistic.
If we win out then win 2 in the big ten tourneyā¦ weād be 26-8, right? Blanking on if we have 21 or 22 wins now. If thatās our record we deserve a 4 all day.
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Well, itās some of both, but CBS has our Non-conference SOS as the weakest of any team seeded 7 or higher. They have teams seeded above us that have done no better in terms of Tier 1 and 2 wins, but have much better NC SOS.
The sub-200 games definitely hurt the NC SOS a bit, but I think the biggest reason that Michiganās NC-SOS is a mess is because they planned on 3 good games in Maui and got 1.5. You donāt make a schedule with the Maui Invitational and expect to play two very average teams and Chaminade.
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Letās get completely wild here. Say we go 2-0 against Maryland and Penn State this weekā¦get the 5 seed in the big ten tournament. Then we beat whoever the 12 seed is, Nebraska, Michigan State and Purdue to win the conference tournament.
28-7 (13-5 in conference)
Is that a 3 seed?
Of course, losing to one of those āaverageā teams is part of the problem, and thatās on us, on the court. And we still scheduled a lot of other really bad teams on purpose. Sure, you canāt always know when you make your schedule exactly how good teams are going to end being, but you have some idea. Other teams manage to avoid being dragged down by SOS without too much trouble, but we get dinged by it almost every year, it seems like.
I honestly donāt think Michigan is getting ādingedā for it. Michigan is picking up a few more quality wins and the resume will improve quickly. I donāt think people are looking at Michiganās SOS and saying oh drop them a seed line. The quality and quantity of good wins is what is important.
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I have a feeling our ceiling is a 5 unless we win the BTT. Ultimately the difference between 4 and 5 is pretty minor though.
First things first though: PSU on the road is going to be tough. (I hope the committee notes that weāve had to play all the tough road games in conference, unlike a lot of our B1G brethrenā¦)
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I think the committee looks at who you beat and who you lost to, not who you didnāt play. I doubt weāll get any sympathy for what turned out to be an unbalanced schedule.
Torvikās site says winning out the regular season, then beating Nebraska, MSU, Purdue gets us a 4.
Oddly, he prediction is identical if we split our final two games and beat Iowa in the opening round of the BTT.
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Youāre insisting on the negative view, but the inverse is of course also trueāperhaps more trueāas Dylan pointed out above. And Iām still in the camp that says that while Beileinās approach to scheduling can be tweaked and here or there debated, itās hardly as though he and his handsomely-paid staff donāt go at the thorny task with maximizing the value of each game uppermost in their minds, just as you or I would. To me this is one of the least availing disputes that fans carry on.
Iāll take a 7 seed in Detroit over most draws. Seems unlikely though since I imagine Purdue or MSU is getting that 2 seed the the 7/10 would play.
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Even if they gave Xavier the Detroit draw as a 2 seed, I donāt think theyād put Michigan there as a 7 because itād be unfair for us to have more of a homecourt.
Yeah, Michigan should need a protected seed to go to Detroit.