Thanks for the suggestion. I’ll try this reading thing. You should try not being a message board warrior and taking everything so personally.
You should stop comparing Shane Morris to Charles Matthews. Pretty bad analogy.
It’d be great if CM could do all of those things, but swapping CM for Zak doesn’t have to be a like-for-like trade. Zak’s offensive responsibilities could (I’d say likely) be distributed amongst several players; and since Zak has been very inefficient, the cumulative efficiency of the distribution could be higher. Zak’s current production sets a relatively low baseline for his usage replacement(s).
Like you’ve been saying, though, it’s probably not worth worrying about the offense. Which is why the apparent–though not guaranteed–upgrade on defense that CM will provide is the real selling point. And losing Walton is, kind of out of nowhere, the offensive transition that may be most difficult to move passed.
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Perfectly said.
Well, I disagree.
The entire reason I brought up Matthews was that I think it’s very safe to say we should be every bit as good next year at the 2-5 as our 2-5 has been in conference play (assuming Wagner returns).
The big question mark is going to be replacing Walton’s production. I don’t expect Simpson to be as good was Walton, so that difference is going to have to be made up elsewhere.
Someone has to be the high usage guy and that someone is usually going to be less efficient than everyone else. That’s fairly normal, I have no clue who that is next year at this point.
No one is denying that Irvin’s shot/game has been broken. He’s 8-of-34 from three and 13-of-40 from two since the first MSU game – that’s awful and his shot hasn’t even been close. He was also shooting 40/78 (52%) from two in January (and 8-of-28 from three) and made 38% of his threes in non-conference play.
And no Matthews isn’t necessarily going to be a like-for-like swap – because we aren’t really sure what Matthews can do – but I’m not sure who takes on Zak’s role. I’m just not sure how Michigan’s offense works logistically next year if you swap in two guys that don’t really shoot threes. It’ll be interesting that’s for sure.
Basically you lose over half of your assists and most people coming back on the roster are play-enders more than play-starters. X has shown some passing ability which is a plus in that department.
How many wings have played for Michigan and have attempted fewer than 100 3s in a season? Will Matthews be above or below that number next year?
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Conference play offensive ratings:
Donnal 130.6
Walton 128.4
Wilson 127.8
Robinson 126.2
MAAR 122.8
Wagner 116.2
Simpson 108.6
Irvin 92.4
Teske 88.0
The discrepancy in efficiency isn’t “normal”. It’s a pretty clear indication that Irvin has been atrocious offensively. You guys that can’t admit that make my heard hurt because the facts speak pretty loudly in this case.
I literally just said he’s been awful over the last month. The point is that I’m not sure who can play that role on next year’s team from the wing.
You’re not sure who can play the role of being awful? Okay…
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Also:
The entire reason I brought up Matthews was that I think it’s very safe to say we should be every bit as good next year at the 2-5 as our 2-5 has been in conference play (assuming Wagner returns).
In other words, his out of conference numbers don’t matter in the context of my initial point.
Mailbag 
? Probably not worth using an end-conference mailbag question on a “next year” topic. Pretty interesting question, though.
Maybe we will be one of those teams without a guy who averages more than 3 assists per game? I think the Wisconsin FF team fit that mold (not saying we will be that good, just stylistically)
edit: whoops, quoted a quote
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Yep, that’s it. Play the role of awful.
Why do you think Zak Irvin still plays so many minutes? Why do you think he has almost as many assists as Walton? He’s one of the only players that can create offense for others on this roster, despite his shooting struggles.
Basically if Charles Matthews is more freshman year GR3 than sophomore year Tim Hardaway Jr. on offense, what does that mean?
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Well, sure, if Zak had played better we might have won a couple more games. He also played well in our big wins (he went for 32, 13, 10 against Marquette/SMU combined, 5-11 from 3). Against MSU, Robinson played 30 minutes, Wilson played 36 minutes, and MAAR almost fouled out. Duncan and DJ went 2 for 10 from 3 and did not look particularly aggressive. Meanwhile, Zak was recovering from the flu and hoisted up 8 shots total.
I’m not sure what we’re arguing, I guess. Is it whether Zak is super efficient? Because I think we agree on that – no. What’s your counterfactual? Is it that we’d have been better off without Zak on this team? That he should only play 10 minutes off the bench now?
Anyway, I think he’s had some big moments for us and can still, especially with his defense, passing, and confidence – and that’s somewhat underrated – be a good piece for this team. And he may have another big game or two in him at a crucial time. I understand that you think he’s just too inefficient and should have his minutes vastly reduced if not eliminated in favor of more time for Duncan and X, I believe. I can see where you’re coming from, but I disagree.
I think Simpson has shown some nice passing ability as of late. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him develop into a 10ppg/4apg player.
I think X will be able to come in and be a playmaker next year. Simpson has the highest assist rate per 40 minutes on the team right now, and I only expect that to grow with more confidence/better feel for the offense and more playing time as a primary option.
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"What’s your counterfactual? Is it that we’d have been better off without Zak on this team? That he should only play 10 minutes off the bench now? "
I’ve said it many times. It’s that Zak should stop taking bad shots. We have plenty of better shooters. We have one of the most efficient offenses in the country in spite of his atrocious efficiency. There is really no need for him to be taking 13 shots in a game unless he is feeling it. Facts show that our possession is more likely to end up with a score with Walton/Wagner/Wilson/Robinson/MAAR taking those shots.
“Unless he is feeling it” is probably a poor choice of words. Irvin always thinks he’s “feeling it”.
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That’d put him on par with this year’s Derrick (cumulative Derrick, not blue-collared-godzilla-Derrick). Since the high PNR isn’t going anywhere, and X’s pedigree suggests he could also lead a nice fast-break like Derrick, I could see it.
Zak averages 3 assists per game. I think it’s entirely possible that each of Mo (.5), MAAR (2), and DJ (1.5) increase their averages by 1 assist per game if they were to each take a chunk of Zak’s usage. They might not all come out of the PNR/dribble drive, like Zak’s (though all 3 of those guys have the aptitude to do so), but I think they could achieve those marks with a higher efficiency. It’ll be interesting to see if JB’s offense can continue to hum along with the play-making usage having a wider distribution.
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At least this time, there won’t be the online fans who kill Beilein for this grad transfer. Folks wanted Spike to get a second senior day on Saturday and I’m convinced more than a few people built a shrine to Bielfeldt’s calves…
In the case of Moose and Spike, Beilein was opening up a roster spot for a late commitment. Could the third time actually be the charm???
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