Zak Irvin's struggles... Got to get better

[Alum05]

He could improve. He also might not. He might even regress.

[BleedBlue]

This statement is empty calories. Projections are, by definition, guesses. What do you think is most likely to happen? A decent contingent think that he has been inefficient and largely ineffective, on offense, reaching back to the @Illinois game (1/21). Those same people think that CM will likely be at least as useful, on offense, as Zak has been, since the @Illinois game.

Considering how CM could fit in with who we return, I could definitely see CM being a lower volume/higher efficiency contributor than Zak. Maybe more of Zak’s used possessions will be used by players other than CM–I actually think that’s likely, with the amazing emergence of Mo and DJ, and reserved optimism regarding X-- but I think CM has very good prospects at filling out his role in the offense.

[Alum05]

Projections, by definition, are more than mere guesses–they are estimates based on current trends. What people are saying in regards to Matthews’s offense is just guessing.

[hailtoyourvictor]

@Alum05

He also showed he’s a terrible 3-point shooter and awful foul shooter. What’s your point?

His 3pt% is in line with what Irvin is shooting in conference play and his FG% is much better than Irvin’s conference play FG%. Given these two facts, I’ll repeat:

CM’s question is what he can provide on offense, but given how terrible Irvin has been offensively Matthews floor probably projects to 2016/17 conference play Zak Irvin.

[BleedBlue]

Okay…to avoid semantics: what is your guess/projection/whatever you are comfortable providing, in regards to what CM will bring to the offense, next year, both relative to Zak and independent of his predecessor?

[hailtoyourvictor]

@Alum05

Not hostile. Just honestly can’t comprehend how he can’t follow the simple comparison. During the Hoke years, Gardner was the whipping boy of choice. Many fans were openly calling for highly touted, but unproven Shane Morris, thinking the QB play could not possible be worse. That went well.

Charles Mathews is more proven than Shane Morris, but he only averaged 10 mpg at UK (less down the stretch). He’ll probably be a good defender, but he very well could be worse on offense.

Again, that has nothing to do with the simple fact that Irvin has been terrible offensively in conference play.

I’d wager anything you want on Matthews having a higher offensive rating than Zak Irvin’s 2016/17 conference offensive rating. Something tells my you aren’t as confident in this as you are pretending to be.

[Alum05]

Why are you limiting Irvin’s 3 point percentage to conference play? If we are to do the same for Matthews, then he’s a 0% 3 point shooter and 33% on twos.

[hailtoyourvictor]

My entire point was that Matthews should be able to provide us Zak Irvin-conference-play level production as a floor. That is why I’m using his conference numbers.

[tarverine]

The difference is that Charles Matthews knew he was a poor shooter and shot 4 all season… His lack of shooting wasn’t made 10x worse by him taking 5 threes per game.

[Alum05]

Not sure why you are putting words in my mouth. I never said I was confident that Matthews would be worse offensively than Irvin. I just said I’m not confident that he’ll be better. Nuance. I expect Matthews to be a better finisher around the basket than Irvin, but a worse foul shooter and equal or worse 3-point shooter. His usage will probably be lower. I don’t expect him to have the ball in his hands as much. How it all plays out, we’all find out soon. Hopefully he’s improved his shooting and playmaking during his redshirt year. I’ll believe it when I see it.

And to close the loop on the analogy–it does make sense. One option bein awful doesn’t preclude another option from being equal or worse.

[hailtoyourvictor]

Conference play offensive ratings:

Donnal 130.6
Walton 128.4
Wilson 127.8
Robinson 126.2
MAAR 122.8
Wagner 116.2
Simpson 108.6
Irvin 92.4
Teske 88.0

[hailtoyourvictor]

I don’t see how saying Matthews should be able to provide conference play Irvin level production rustles anyone’s jimmies. Irvin has been solid defensively and atrocious offensively. Matthews has shown to be solid defensively and should be able to be at least atrocious on offense.

[hailtoyourvictor]

@Alum05

Not sure why you are putting words in my mouth. I never said I was confident that Matthews would be worse offensively than Irvin. I just said I’m not confident that he’ll be better. Nuance. I expect Matthews to be a better finisher around the basket than Irvin, but a worse foul shooter and equal or worse 3-point shooter. His usage will probably be lower. I don’t expect him to have the ball in his hands as much. How it all plays out, we’all find out soon. Hopefully he’s improved his shooting and playmaking during his redshirt year. I’ll believe it when I see it.

And to close the loop on the analogy–it does make sense. One option bein awful doesn’t preclude another option from being equal or worse.

We should never speculate on if a replacement can be better than a player we are losing in any sport because Brady Hoke and Devin Gardner happened. Got it.

[BleedBlue]

@hailtoyourvictor

Donnal 130.6

I love this. I cant wait for Mark to go to Illinois or Penn State and win 6th man of the year

/s…probably…fricken Moose

[Alum05]

I think he’ll be a better finisher around the basket but a poor shooter from distances and the foul line. I expect him to have relatively low usage. I could see him averaging 7-9 ppg, 4-5 rpg, 2apg, 2 turnovers.

[umhoops]

There’s a real question as to what Matthews will be able to do in the offense. Regardless of his efficiency, can he run high ball screens? Can he initiate offense? Or is he a guy that scores mostly off of backdoor cuts and the like?

Based on what we’ve seen, limited, he’s the later. Obviously he could improve with a year in the program, but that is conjecture at this point and I’m not really sure what to expect there.

Whether he uses 15% of possessions or 25% will probably tell us a lot there in terms of what his role is.

[hailtoyourvictor]

@umhoops

There’s a real question as to what Matthews will be able to do in the offense. Regardless of his efficiency, can he run high ball screens? Can he initiate offense? Or is he a guy that scores mostly off of backdoor cuts and the like?

Based on what we’ve seen, limited, he’s the later. Obviously he could improve with a year in the program, but that is conjecture at this point and I’m not really sure what to expect there.

Whether he uses 15% of possessions or 25% will probably tell us a lot there in terms of what his role is.

How much worse offensively can someone be for the team than one with high usage and incredibly bad efficiency? I’d rather Irvin be someone that was scoring mostly off back cuts and the like than what he currently is.

[Alum05]

Or conversely, we should just always assume that a replacement player will be better than the player he is replacing. Because that’s what always happens.

[BleedBlue]

Thanks, that’s all I was asking for. I’d be really happy with the stat line (throwing in a few blocks and steals), which is a privilege, considering we were basically counting on CM to be a top 3 option on the team, before Mo and DJ really came on.

Hopefully his usage wont have to be high enough to average 2 TOs. It’s weird, even having to imagine what the offense will look like without omnipresent Dwalt and Zak.

[hailtoyourvictor]

@Alum05

Or conversely, we should just always assume that a replacement player will be better than the player he is replacing. Because that’s what always happens.

No one here is assuming that every replacement player will be better than the player he is replacing. You should try reading.