I think the starters at 2 and 3 are not locked in. Beilein moved Robinson to the bench last year even though he was a 4th year returning starter.
Depending on what happens at 1 and 4, you may have more need for a shooter (Robinson) than a slasher (Matthews). And while I agree MAAR is very likely going to keep his starting job, what if it’s Simpson and Matthews starting beside him? Is Michigan really going to start a lineup where MAAR is the biggest (only) 3 point shooting threat on the perimeter?
As is generally the case, Michigan will have some figuring out to do next season before it finds the right roles and rotations. There’s a decent chance next year’s roster is deeper and more competitive than it has been since at least 2013…though that statement has been made in a lot of Aprils and not ended up being true.
It’s possible the 3 isn’t locked in, but I FULLY assume Matthews is the starter. I said it another post, but if he’s not the starter than the team is probably in trouble. I think MAAR is locked in for sure as a starter as well, although that may end up being in name only if a transfer or Poole eats into his minutes.
I think the team will be okay with three point shooting. Don’t forget your 4 and 5 can shoot it at a high clip. Matthews is an unknown but from the sounds of things, he’s going to be able to shoot it at a good enough clip.
Lot of unknowns but you might have 2 shooters (Poole and Robinson) and 2 slashers (Matthews and Simpson) and it may make sense to break them up beside MAAR.
Probably a moot point though, given it looks likely there will be a grad transfer PG who can do both.
Another option could be Matthews and Robinson both starting at F if (Wilson goes pro.)
I would not count on Matthews being an asset as a shooter. Which is perfectly fine if, as you said, your 4 and 5 can drain from 3. Beilein is happy to play 1 guy who can’t shoot, but 2 pushes his limits.
If Wilson or Wagner leave it may be tough to play a lineup that has Simpson, Matthews and Teske at the same time. If MAAR and Wilson/Wagner are the 2 best 3 point shooters on the floor, that would be by far the worst shooting team Beilein’s ever had.
The Morris, Stu and Morgan lineup was a lot worse shooters than the possible X, Matthews and Wilson/Wagner lineup.
Morris couldn’t shoot it well, Morgan wasn’t a shooter and I don’t think people realize Stu was an average to below-average three point shooter most his career.
If Matthews can be in the low 30’s as a 3 point threat, the team will be more than fine with that starting lineup or one of Wilson/Wagner if one leaves.
Teske/Morgan: same. Simpson/Morris: same. Matthews v. Douglass… It’s true that Douglass was a mediocre shooter but that would be a huge step up for Matthews, who shot 41% from FTs. That’s worse than DeAndre Jordan shoots. I’m not saying Stu’s career marks (34% from 3 and 70% from FT) are unattainable, but it seems doubtful that Matthews would be there next year.
Again, the debate is academic, but I’m not sure the Beilein offense will work with so little shooting (again assuming Wagner or Wilson are gone to be replaced by Teske or Davis in the starting lineup).
X showed more shooting ability in high school. Only had 19 attempts in limited minutes this past year. That’s not enough to say he’s a bad shooter at the college level. Morris shot 64 treys and made less than 30% of them. We know he’s a bad shooter from deep. We don’t know that about X yet. I think he’ll shoot above 30% next year and if most of his attempts are spot ups, then I think he could be a competent shooter from deep.
What if we view as what will we be able to do with all these guys who can get to the hoop? I think they all shoot well enough to keep defenses honest and better penetration really opens things up.
I really don’t get the certainty people have with Alstork? He’s posted big numbers with questionable efficiency against low-D1 caliber competition.
This year he played 1 power conference equivalent team and was BAD – 3/18 FG, 7 turnovers, 15 points at Penn State.
Last year he played 2 power conference equivalent teams and was at best average – 4/14 FG, 0 turnovers, 6.0 ppg
Unless our B1G season & NCAA Tournament path is littered with likes of Youngstown St, UIC, South Dakota, Bowling Green — I just don’t see where he succeeds against B1G caliber players?
Or flipped around another way, would Ibi Watson have been able to put up similar numbers if he was in Alstork’s role vs Alstork’s level of competition?
Ha, ha. I keep thinking I haven’t spent enough time looking at his film because I don’t see it either. I also don’t buy that he could waltz in and have immediate command of Beilein’s playbook.
Couldnt disagree more. He’s not super athletic but he is ridiculously skilled and understands how to use his body and create. He’s a beast. He scored in every possible way at every level.
He can shoot off the catch or bounce, he has great post up moves , an array of spins and footwork, Jump stops, great right or left. Guy just knows how to get buckets. If he was more athletic he’d be a top 15 pick all day.
Hed replace zaks role perfectly. From what I saw there he’s a better version of zak in a lot of ways. Also he has great vision. The Horizon league isn’t amazing but it’s a decent mid major and he appeared to dominate. I’m quite confident he’d come in and immediately be our best creator on offense.
Also imagine when a team can’t key on him. Those turnovers will go down big time. He looked like he really had to earn those looks. Imagine when he has more space and guys to pass to when guys cheat. Even a lot of those threes were tough hits. Wait to see what he does with belein coaching and some room to shoot. If we add alstork I believe it’s a game changer. We’d be really deep and well rounded
Also I like ibi more then most and I think he will be successful particularly when we start running more with x as point but ibi wouldn’t have sniffed that level of success even in the horizon league.
Just watching alstorks film again after you three said you weren’t impressed just to see if I was inflating him and I’m in more support of him then before. He’d come in and immediately be our most reliable perimeter weapon. The amount of damage he could do with our offrvse and weapons is ridiculous.
I love MAar and I like Mathews a lot but I don’t see how either is holding this guy off next year.,he appears more ready then either to lead this team. The idea of MAar, Mathews and alstork has me excited. Those three plus Duncan is the best wing grouping in the big ten. The league should be very afraid if we add this guy and bring back Wilson and moe or even one come back
If you really want to see why he’d be perfect go to 6 15 in the video posted by Dylan. It’s the ball screen portion of the video. We are gonna need someone to replace Waltons end of the shot clock heroics in the p n r and alstork is that guy. He is great at attacking/ passing in the p n r and p n pop. That part of the video was extremely impressive and obviously relevant for his fit on the team. After that it shows his away screen arsenal where he’d replace zaks role and it’s very Impressive again. . To top it off he’s a great defender.
I want bamba too but this kid is a hell of a consolation prize. I actually think his skill set is more of a need but obviously bamba is so good he’s a no brainer. if we add either the big ten should be worried.
You cAn see why. He’s a game changer I’m serious. Say dj leaves. I could see us going small for 20-25 minutes. This scenario without bamba but with alstork. Would be common I feel.
X
MAar
Alstork
Mathews
Wagner
Not ideal but I think alstork is strong enough. He also appears to rebound decently and led his team in blocks. Charles replacing zaks d is very important there. I think that lineup would scrap better then we realize.
Obviously livers is very important suddenly and teske or Davis too. Either way adding a player/ a
Scorer of alstorks talent and versatility suddenly becomes very very important if dj leaves. He’d really lessen the shock to our line up.