I think Oakland and Northern Kentucky were very bit as good as Penn State this year. He played 4 games against those two teams and was extremely good and efficient in 3 of them.
25 points, 4 assists on 10 of 21.
24 points, 6 assists on 6 of 12.
22 points, 3 assists on 7 of 15.
Last year, his "2 power conference equivalent" games happened to be against two top 25 (per Kenpom) teams. Bad games, for sure, but I don't think that is as damning as you make it out to be. When you're unquestionably the best player on a weak team, teams with superior talent are going to focus on not letting you beat them.
Maybe Alstork would pan out and maybe he wouldn't, but I don't think what you're drawing your conclusion from is sufficient.