Bracketology / Bubble Watch Thread (2016-17)

Can they get to a 6 or 5 seed? Absolutely! It’d take the scenario or similar scenario you called out though, so it’ll be tough to do. One thing they have going for them, is I think Palm mentioned they’re similar to the higher seeds in top 100 total wins. Adding even more of those Ws, especially one or two on the road is going to boost their seed.

I mentioned Gonzaga more because of their history and conference. They just don’t find success in the tournament. Add the fact they’ve played nobody but St. Mary’s for three months and you have a recipe for an upset. It’s really hard to turn on the switch when you’ve coasted for so long, which I think directly correlates a bit to their lack of larger success in the tournament.

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Avoid Duke, Arizona, Gonzaga and Oregon.

Would like to play Florida St, Kansas, Louisville and Florida.

I agree on avoiding Duke, but I guess I’m just not overly impressed with the Pac-12 this year. I think Oregon on a neutral floor we’d have a chance. Same with Arizona.

My avoid list would also include UCLA. I think we are better on D than early Dec, but they just have too many weapons. It would take a team like LVille/UVA to break them strategically, not us.

Would add UVA to the, ‘would be less worried about’ list.

Interesting this is the first year in a long time I think the pac 12 is actually good/ underrated. I think this is the first year in a long time they get one maybe 2 final four teams coming from the west coast.

Ucla, zona, Oregon and the zags are all
Very good imo. That said the pac 12 and zags have suckered me in before just to choke out. I think this year though they have elite talent. Can zona find a way to get trier blended in properly with the rest of the team that had been playing great without him?

Oregon to me is the most impressive though pac 12 team. They really blew the game in Maui the other night but man is that team kinda like a better version (more consistent) version of us. They slaughtered zona, then we’re running ucla out of the building. To even go up 20 in a half on ucla really says something imo even if they did blow it. Track record siesta for itself.

I think we match up well with those pac 12 teams though stylistically. Oregon although very good would be a decent draw for us. We still give up to many good looks each game , lately teams just missed. Especially yesterday. Oregon wouldn’t but I think we could return the favor,

I think we got this run in us to play to a higher seed. We still are up sloppy though. I’d love for us to pick off the ball better/ use the screen better. Timing is off a lot and guys leave to early rendering the puck useless. Wait for it and come off tight/ read the defender and curl or fade got the open jumper. Teams get to excited and they mess up the timing/ pick.

I think with Oregon, it starts and finishes with Brooks. Slow him down or if he’s off, and you have a chance at the upset.

Arizona is exactly what you called out. They seem to be struggling a bit blending in Trier. It’s getting late in a hurry to figure that out, or at least in terms of doing it against the better teams in the tournament.

My individual hatred of Ball gets in the way haha, but I think UCLA gets bounced before the Elite 8. Specifically in the second round or sweet 16. They play no defense and I really think Ball doesn’t care. They win, cool, they lose oh well. He’s got his eyes on the NBA. That’s not the type of person to carry you to the final four. (As I say this watch them win it all)

Lunardi’s latest bracket has us as a 10 playing a 7-seeded…South Carolina? Yikes

BTW - that seems pretty harsh for South Carolina…5-3 vs RPI Top 50, 11-5 vs RPI top 100? I guess recent home losses hurt, but they were without Thornwell for some of those earlier losses (3 I believe right?). If that was Michigan’s resume, I’d be crying foul for a 7 seed.

Speaking of 7 seeds, with who’ve we’ve played and the status of B1G teams, you can already get a good guess at who we’d potentially play. That cluster of teams is filled with B1G teams or previous matchups.

As an example, if you look at Bracket Matrix, if we’re a 10-11 seed, it’s going to be St. Marys, Xavier or Notre Dame. They probably wouldn’t want last years rematch, so already can guess a St. Marys or Xavier matchup may be in the future.

Oregon would absolutely crush us.

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I’m not so sure about that. They haven’t been too impressive away from home and what if Brooks is off?

Boucher and Bell would probably give Wilson/Wagner a tough time.

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Hmmm, can’t say I agree. I think Ball’s the best player in college basketball, and plays really hard and unselfishly. I think they’re going to make a deep run in the tourney.

Your underestimating Michigan. When this team plays hard and intelligent there’s few teams that crush us. I think we’d do well barring a bad game. Our teams problem is consistency not talent imo. Very mental with us. That said I like Oregon and do think they are superior to us.

Well he’s already better than Steph Curry, right?

You can’t hold his dad’s craziness against him. With that said, let’s say Ball becomes Chris Paul, or Jason Kidd with a jump shot. At that point he’ll have an argument.

Oh definitely, I was being sarcastic ha.

I know we’re going off topic so maybe I can hop on ncaa discussion thread to share, but this cbs sports article I thought covered my opinion on him:

Honestly, I don’t agree with much of that article.

First, the guy doesn’t take two point mid-range shots because he basically knifes through the defense whenever he wants and either gets a layup or makes a great pass to an open shooter.

As far as finishing through contact, he’s a young kid. He’ll put on weight and strength. Steph Curry still doesn’t do it, yet he’s a great player.

Defensively, I gotta disagree. He’s already pretty good on defense. One highlight of a guy beating him means very little. Plus, the guy was Kobe Simmons, an elite talent in his own right, and it looked like Ball was supposed to funnel him to the middle on that play and fouled when he saw no help was coming. Last night, for example, he left his man to block a layup attempt from a 6-8 USC power forward. Not many PGs can do that. He also finished an alley oop dunk by using one hand to catch it, gathered it with the other hand, and dunked it. Average athletes don’t do things like that.

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I don’t have time to read the article right now, but did they actually use the lack of mid range jump shots against him? That completely discredits whatever author wrote that piece. As you said, when you’re as good of an outside shooter as he is and can also get to the rim almost at will, 2 point jumpers are by far the least efficient shot to take. Here’s a great article on it: Your New Home for Video Analysis

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