There's definitely always the chance for bid thieves, but the number of bid thief leagues has shrunk this year. Two usual multiple bid leagues are one bids this year - Mountain West and Missouri Valley (most likely).
Also, don't forget, if a league is that weak to only have one or two teams in at large contention, then any conference tourney loss is probably a bad one.
Long way to go and by tourney time you can definitely be right, but if a VCU or MTSU were to lose in their tournament, there's a good chance that L can knock them out of an at large. Same with WSU/IllSt, they're only getting one team in. WSU's resume is pretty bad truthfully. But you're 100% right on SMU/Cincy.