Why MAAR and Dawkins Both Make Sense

Recruiting
1

I think this comes down to a simple decision by the coaching staff that they want experienced, four year (presumably) wing players to go along with our existing and future wing players.

If Mitch comes back, next year is his last year. I think it will also be Caris’ last year.

So, as we head into the 2015-2016 season, even if we took both MAAR and Dawkins, the known scholarship situation (I am assuming Max does not get a 5th year) would be as follows: Walton (JR), Spike (SR), Irvin (JR), MAAR (SO), Dawkins (SO), Chatman (SO), Wilson (SO), Donnal (RS SO), and Doyle (SO, or perhaps RS FR). That’s nine players, which means we still would have four scholarships to give. That precludes almost nothing - we could still take transfers like Harris and Huff, and we could still take four 2015 recruits. What I suspect we would do is the following: Brunson or nothing at PG, 2 wings (whether transfers or freshmen - any combination of Harris, Coleman, Davis, Dozier, McQuaid, or Ahrens), and possibly a big man (could be Huff, too).

Now, on the surface, it would appear doing this would leave us with very few scholarships for 2016. But this is where the coaches are (IMO rightfully) anticipating early entry. In the last 3-4 years, our top players have developed very quickly in this offense and have all left after 2-3 years (Morris, Burke, Stauskas, Robinson, McGary had he played all year this year). I think it is a very safe bet to assume that Irvin and Walton do not play four years (thus, gone by 2016), and Chatman does not play three years (also gone by 2016). Even if it only turns out to be 2 of the 3, that opens up 3-4 scholarships by 2016 for wing players. I’d also bet that Harris, if he came here, stays one year. The guy averaged 17 a game for WVU this year. He would excel in our system, the team will likely have a really good year, and that will propel him quickly to the draft too.

Before anyone claims these guys (Walton, Irvin, Chatman) are not early entry candidates, look back to last year at this time and tell me you thought Nik would leave after two years, or Caris would leave after three.

Thus, I’m seeing MAAR and Dawkins as quality depth at the wing position (and who knows, maybe one of them turns into the next Levert type recruit). At the same time, neither guy should scare away our top recruiting targets. It’s a smart way to hedge against early and unexpected attrition. And, of course, if for some reason one of the guys isn’t really a Michigan caliber player, those guys tend to move on fairly quickly, too (Brundidge and Christian, for example).

2
  1. Hatch is on athletic scholarship
  2. Max will get a 5th year and be productive imo
  3. Dawkins may not come
  4. Transfers will decide before we have openings if Dawkins commits
3
1. Hatch is on athletic scholarship 2. Max will get a 5th year and be productive imo 3. Dawkins may not come 4. Transfers will decide before we have openings *if* Dawkins commits

Agree with all except the latter half of #2. Nothing that I have seen out of Max has shown me he can be a productive role player for our team.

4
1. Hatch is on athletic scholarship 2. Max will get a 5th year and be productive imo 3. Dawkins may not come 4. Transfers will decide before we have openings *if* Dawkins commits

Agree with all except the latter half of #2. Nothing that I have seen out of Max has shown me he can be a productive role player for our team.

I understand but then look at Jon Diebler or Frank Kaminsky. Not saying he will be that good but…

  1. He has a 3 point shot
  2. He plays solid positional defense and rebounding
  3. JB claims he is “unstoppable” lol

He plays clunky and rushed right now. I honestly think he just needs minutes/rep and to physically mature/mentally soak the game up. I have faith he can do it in year 5.

5

No offense, but how is Max at all comparable to Diebler or Kaminski? Diebler was a 6-5 shooting guard who, I believe, was the state of Ohio’s all-time leading high school scorer. He had a miserable first 10 games of his college career, then he was an absolute sniper from three point range the next three and a half years. His only issue was that he had limited ability off the dribble. The guy nailed open threes all the time.

Kaminski? The guy is 6-11, has a really nice outside shot, post game, and the ability to put it on the floor.

Max is, I think, about 6-7. He doesn’t look any taller than that. I think he is a really good positional rebounder. But so far, that’s about it. He tossed up a couple threes in the Big Ten tourney title game against MSU, and both were not close. He actually reminds me more of McLimans than anything - a guy who was supposedly pretty good in practice but it didn’t translate. Traditionally, we haven’t extended a fifth year to guys who have been marginal bench players (McLimans, Wright). Max is going to have to show something next year.

It’s not out of the question that he gets a fifth year, but I’d bet against it.

Meanwhile, heading into next year, we will have the following scholarship players: McGary (50/50 right now), Levert, Spike, Walton, Irvin, Max, Donnal, Doyle, Wilson, and Chatman. Add MAAR and Dawkins and that’s 12, which means we can still take one more, as I think by the time Harris and/or Huff are ready to play in 2015, Hatch will be a medical scholarship (I think they can get that for him pretty much right away). And, of course, if Mitch leaves, that will open up a scholarship too (hopefully he stays).

6

Revisionist history and I said I am placing faith. I think he needs minutes.

Also, JB has said Hatch will be on athletic scholarship. Treat it as such.

7

Hatch will only be on an athletic scholarship until it becomes clear he can’t play at the D 1 level and we need the scholarship. Both of those could happen within a year or two.

And there is no way Max becomes a productive B1G quality player in our system. Too small and unskilled.

8

Webb has already floated out the Max potentially not getting a 5th year possibility. Knowing his style, he wouldn’t publicly say anything like that unless he has heard it was at least possible and or likely. He also mentioned that Hatch would probably end up on medical eventually. My own speculation is JB doesn’t want to kill the kid’s dream before he even steps on campus or has access to Sanderson.

9

Really hope that Max can become a contributor. He is the only player on recent teams from whom I have just not. . . quite seen it.

10

I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that Walton comes back for his junior year. Both Burke and Morris toyed with the idea of leaving after only one year, and I think Walton will be ahead of where either of them were at that point after his second year. Whether he actually goes or not, the possibility will be out there, and we’ll be sweating through it. With the potential of losing our two best guards after this season, beefing up our backcourt in anticipation is not a bad thing, though I’m not completely sold on Dawkins.

As far as Beilfeldt, it’s hard to be too optimistic about him at this point. I thought he had some decent minutes in his first season, even though it wasn’t against the best of competition, and I thought he might step up his game a little and be at least a spot contributor against better teams this year, but he doesn’t seem to have progressed at all. It’s all very well to say that he “need minutes”, but where are you going to find even 5-10 minutes a game for him if other guys are producing and he’s not, especially in a Beilein offense? JB is not likely to give more than 60 minutes a game to bigs, and if McGary is back, he and Donnal will take up almost all of that, with Doyle and Wilson also competing for the rest.

11

Hatch comes on campus in June? How does that help the staff add a guy before the fall? Only guy I still see with the possibility of being uncommitted is Sviat.

And I wasn’t referring to Max being used next year, but the year after. We will need him to produce because our 2015 bigman recruiting doesn’t look good.

12

Guestavo:

I assume there is a procedure for moving Hatch to a medical scholarship almost immediately. If you’ve read the updates on him, there is zero chance he’s going to play college basketball. He was barely able to get into a high school game this year. I feel horrible for the kid, as he seemed to be a very promising player before the accident, but unfortunately it is what it is.

If Max can’t do much this coming year, he’ll get passed on the depth chart by 2015. By 2015, Donnal will be your starting five, Doyle will likely be his top backup, and I’d imagine it will be Chatman and Wilson at the four. All of those guys seem to be more talented than Max. Moreover, it’s pretty hard to draw any real conclusions about our 2015 big man recruiting right now. If we land Esa Ahmad, for example, that would be a really nice guy to throw into the mix.

13
And I wasn't referring to Max being used next year, but the year after. We will need him to produce because our 2015 bigman recruiting doesn't look good.

The year after will be Beilfeldt’s 5th in the program. Not many guys just suddenly turn on productivity after four years on the team. And frankly, if we “need” Beilfeldt to produce as a 5th year senior, we’re in big trouble as a program. We may not get a Zimmerman or a Stone in 2015, but it’s hard to believe that we won’t be able to land anyone who could outperform Beilfeldt.

14
And I wasn't referring to Max being used next year, but the year after. We will need him to produce because our 2015 bigman recruiting doesn't look good.

The year after will be Beilfeldt’s 5th in the program. Not many guys just suddenly turn on productivity after four years on the team. And frankly, if we “need” Beilfeldt to produce as a 5th year senior, we’re in big trouble as a program. We may not get a Zimmerman or a Stone in 2015, but it’s hard to believe that we won’t be able to land anyone who could outperform Beilfeldt.

It is hard to believe when no prospects surface.

Guestavo:

I assume there is a procedure for moving Hatch to a medical scholarship almost immediately. If you’ve read the updates on him, there is zero chance he’s going to play college basketball. He was barely able to get into a high school game this year. I feel horrible for the kid, as he seemed to be a very promising player before the accident, but unfortunately it is what it is.

If Max can’t do much this coming year, he’ll get passed on the depth chart by 2015. By 2015, Donnal will be your starting five, Doyle will likely be his top backup, and I’d imagine it will be Chatman and Wilson at the four. All of those guys seem to be more talented than Max. Moreover, it’s pretty hard to draw any real conclusions about our 2015 big man recruiting right now. If we land Esa Ahmad, for example, that would be a really nice guy to throw into the mix.

Horford as a third big was still getting 10 mpg.