What They're Saying: Preseason magazines weigh in on Michigan’s 2018-19 outlook


#1

#2

I’m not sure who the preseason favorite should be (I honestly don’t think it is Michigan or Michigan State), but the fact that everyone picked Michigan State just feels lazy to me. Oh, they won the league last year how about we pencil them in.


#3

So I assume you’re stuck between Wisconsin and Indiana?


#4

If I had to bet on someone I would probably take Indiana. Although I would need to take a closer look at the schedules first.


#5

Well to be fair, to the predictors, it looks like advanced rankings are going to have MSU as the clear favorite, although I do think the difficulty with projecting individual defense is a major limiting factor in that ranking.


#6

I’m calling it now, assuming he doesn’t become a starter: Iggy for B1G 6th man of year.


#7

I’ve always been a fan of Street and Smith’s. In fact, there was a time, back in the eighties and nineties, when that was essentially the only source of recruiting information I could find. Times have certainly changed!


#8

Yeah and I get that from a computer standpoint. The best models are probably going to heavily weight last year’s success. I am probably just too familiar with UM and MSU and see their flaws and not their potential strengths. Seems like it will be a weird year in the league, a lot of above average teams but no one that I get really excited about.


#9

Agreed about MSU. They might be the best team, but I can’t see them as being a unanimous favorite. I feel like they could finish first or middle of the pack, and that applies to about 6 teams in the B1G this year.

I also think Cassius Winston is being pretty overrated, making him a unanimous All-B1G first team player and one place having him as a top 10 guy. His numbers looked really good last year, from a traditional and efficiency stand point. Those don’t take into account his Defense, however, which is terrible. It’ll also probably be worse this year since he won’t have JJJ and Bridges to cover for him or protect the rim when he gets blown by.

I also think his offensive numbers are going to drop next year. His ORTG was so high last year because of his insane assist numbers and 3 point shooting. Take away his two best players/offensive options and those assist numbers drop. He shot almost 50% from 3, but 86% of those were assisted. Take away the two main creators who let Winston be a catch and shoot guy and he probably becomes much closer to his freshman self who shot 38% on 33% assisted 3’s. He’ll be better than his freshman numbers and still be a good shooter, but not god tier. It’s a negative assessment, but I see his assist and shooting numbers going down while playing worse defense and still having a really high TO rate.

Really I’m down on MSU on the whole. Their returning production from last year will all be very one-dimensional. Langford’s an inefficient two point mid-range shooter who doesn’t drive or take as many 3’s as he should. Nick Ward’s an un-athletic, out of shape big who’s pretty much glued to the paint and not a jump shooter or elite level rim protector. Winston I went over but all he does is shoot 3’s or pass (more 3’s than 2’s taken last year) and without JJJ/Bridges, who can create and draw attention/collapse the D to let Winston do those things? Beyond that you have Tillman who’s Nick Ward again and McQuaid who’s just a shooter but not even elite at that. Then you bring in some good freshman but no one who’s projected to be an elite, instant impact guy. I don’t see the hype around this team.


#10

Izzo has reinvented himself over the summer and will become an elite coach again. He will stop being so stubborn, quit yelling at his players so much and start playing the best players regardless of seniority. :smile:


#11

I think Maryland is my sleeper based on these rankings. Cowan, Fernando and Jalen Smith might be the most talented trio in the conference. They have a really strong freshman class with Aaron Wiggins and Eric Ayala also. I have a hard time coming up with 5 teams I think will finish higher than them in the conference.


#12

Why so much love for Purdue? Didn’t they lose 4 starters?


#13

Carsen Edwards.


#14

I like Maryland’s top end talent but their depth is terrible. They have 11 scholarship players and 6 of them are true freshmen. They have 4 scholarship front court players, one of them averaged 9 minutes a game last year and one averaged 12 as a junior before missing most of the year with an injury. Their top end talent is great like you said, but especially after losing Huerter I think their depth will be their and Turgeon’s downfall.


#15

Ethan Happ.


#16

What does Happ have to do with Purdue? Was just answering your question as to why some are high on Purdue.


#17

If they are high on Purdue because of one player, wouldn’t they be equally high, or higher, on Wisconsin because of one great player with more returning support? Just don’t see Purdue that high (second) based on Edwards alone.


#18

Painter has finished T-5 or higher 9 of the last 12 years. Izzo has finished T-5 or higher 19 of the last 21 years. Beilein has finished T-5 or better 6 of the last 8 years. Especially for Izzo and Painter, most of those have been T-3 or above. Matta, Crean, and Ryan are gone. Archie Miller had a good run at Dayton but has never finished in the top 50 on Barttorvik. The computer numbers like MSU and Michigan. sure, IU seems promising and other teams could rise, but it seems quite reasonable tor project MSU and UM at the top with Purdue pretty high.


#19

I’m not saying Purdue should be that high necessarily, but a player of Carsen Edwards’ caliber plus their record last year is the thought process I assume.


#20