I don’t think so. To begin with, the Big Ten will be much stronger than it was in 2017-18, when only 4 teams made the tournament, so even if everything we hope for comes to pass, we aren’t going to have a record like OSU’s that year (15-3 in conference, regular season). Second, while I love Zeb’s long-term potential, it is not at all clear to me that his freshman production is going to be appreciably better, if at all, than was Dakich’s as a fifth year senior (3 ppg, 2/1 assist/turnover ratio, 38%+ from 3). Nor is it clear to me that assigning a substantial number of those minutes to a bigger lineup will not cause us to have pretty significant ball handling/offensive sets/transition issues. Finally, we weren’t even a 2 seed, as you suggest we could be, with the 2018-19 team which had won its first 17 games, and went into the tournament with a 28-record. That team was almost surely a step up from this team, even if all of what we’re hoping for comes true.
It is worth noting that the T-rank projections still do not include Chaundee Brown in Michigan’s ranking (or at least he is not listed as a contributor when you click on the team page). And considering his value in T-rank’s system last season (2.9 PRPG! in 51% of team minutes) he would likely project to be one of our best players this season and probably have at least a moderate bump up in expectations if he gets a waiver to play.
Isn’t Zeb up around 6’5"? That’s what I’ve heard. Only has him listed at 6’2". His length and athleticism will help off the bench.
All freshman are listed as what they are on 247 until they have an official roster with heights
The roster has been out for a while FWIW
Zeb is listed at 6’5", though obviously that’s an “official roster” 6’5 rather than an NBA combine measurement 6’5.
I haven’t looked hard but I feel like Tier 1 is Iowa (Garza), MSU (depth and Izzo), Wisconsin (Senior 5 even if the bench is ugly) and Illlinois (3 nice guards in Dosunmu-Miller-Frazier and 2 bigs in Cockburn and Georg, even if their forwards are terrible, is a fine recipe for a college team).
Then if Tier 2 is Rutgers, Michigan, Purdue, Indiana, Ohio State, I’m higher on Michigan, Rutgers (athletic enough on D that they just need one guy to come back from the long break with a bit of offensive juice) and Indiana, they’d be my 2A and Purdue and OSU in 2B, and I think Minnesota can join them with their starting backcourt carrying them beyond what people expect.
Wagner, Livers, Brooks, Brown, Dickinson, Johns and Smith gives us 7 players I think will
be pretty good, then a couple top 100 recruits in Jackson and Williams. That looks like a lot more depth to me than a team like Purdue has, even if their star (Williams) is way ahead of our star (Wagner). OSU’s offense could be terrible I think. Purdue has no depth but nice starting unit.
The roster is out but I assume Bart hasn’t loaded new rosters yet because they aren’t updated wherever he pulls his data from.
- Strength of the conference is accounted for in the seeding which is why OSU managed to go 15-3 and not get a great seed. Of course we won’t go 15-3 but if someone went 15-3 (or 16-4 or whatever the equivalent is) in this year’s conference they would be a 1 or 2 seed, not a 5 seed.
- The 18-19 team was a 2 seed
- I just don’t even know where to go with an argument that Andrew Dakich was a productive player. I won’t focus on that though- the entire point that you missed is we’re talking about the ceiling, not what you expect to happen. If Michigan reaches their ceiling, either Zeb gives 10-15 good minutes a game (Dakich minutes are not good minutes), or they can successfully slide Franz or Brown to the 2. Both are reasonable possibilities.
Again, I’m not sure why you think the things that you personally expect to happen constitute the ceiling. Honestly, my point isn’t even as much that the ceiling should be a certain level as much as the entire idea that you can look at this roster and peg it within 4 seed lines. There is way too much uncertainty to look at this team and go yep it’s a 6 seed. The ceiling is certainly higher than a 5 seed and the floor is certainly lower than an 8 seed. If all the stuff I’ve been mentioning happens it could be a Final Four team. If Smith can’t play at this level and Eli struggles to run the show and it’s a defensive mess at the 5 spot then it could be a bubble team. The most likely outcome is somewhere in the middle.
I think that conversation was regarding 247’s player listings. Not sure, though.
Staying on Torvik, do you have any preference between kenpom and Torvik?
Torvik’s preseason projections have freshman heights pulled from 247 until the season starts then they are updated with the roster heights/weights.
Some nice features on Bart’s site and I definitely use it. Fun to see new stuff that he comes up with. I still rely on KenPom more because he’s ratings are a little more stable and reliable.
I get why the National perception would not be as favorable as those who follow the team closely but the more I watch Brown and Smith highlights the more I’m becoming very comfortable in us surprising.
Brown is a really nice player. Even if he doesn’t start to get smith out there as an early ball handler I imagine he plays starter level minutes
The rotation of forwards with Franz, Livers, Brown, Johns, and Williams is outstanding. I can’t imagine many teams can match that level of depth and talent at the forward spots.
Johns has to get some five minutes to ensure all those talented players gets out there enough.
This roster could be very deep and versatile.
The rags are doing our boys a favor. The team will be out to prove them all wrong. I love it. The team, the team, the oops, sorry, I got carried away.
22. Michigan Wolverines
Juwan Howard has a lot of talent, but the Big Ten is a monster. Zavier Simpson and Jon Teske are among those lost. The Wolverines do have Isaiah Livers, Eli Brooksand Franz Wagner returning. Howard has done a nice job recruiting, so the potential is there for another strong season despite the rugged Big Ten competition.
What does it say about us if D*ck Vitale is the national pundit we’re most aligned with? 
I think it’s more of a “of course, because it’s 2020” moment.
I was most surprised that there were only 40 teams on his list. He has 80 making the tournament every March.
Kenpom much higher on Michigan than others
Still 5th in the Big Ten FWIW… Surprised to see OSU so high in Ken’s ratings too.
He is looooow on Illinois