Just staring down the list of games remaining, and it seems to me that barring a very bad patch we can start to believe the team is in. This is clearly a more organized and confident squad than appeared in the bad early losses, and could do serious damage with a healthy Levert and consistent Donnal. MAAR has also been a very pleasant surprise. Anyone care to discuss?
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We need to get to 20 wins.
We need to win at least 1 more game against a ranked team.
If we lose to a bottom dwelling big ten team, we probably need 2 wins against ranked opponents.
We need Texas to make the tournament.
If those things happen, we should be in no questions asked. Still a long way to go.
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The only area I am concerned with is that the non-conference hasn’t helped Michigan much. The Texas win is their only shot it seems at a good win. NC State has moved to 0-4 in conference and has a 3 game stretch of @UNC, @Pitt, Duke. Quite possibly an 0-7 start for them and I think we will quickly forget about that win.
Not that it will turn into a bad loss but UConn is hovering around 78 in the RPI if they stumble a couple times against bad teams that might be a team around 100 RPI and not a good loss.
The last point is very important a long ways to go. I think they will likely be in a lot of close games, not necessarily against teams like Minnesota/Rutgers/Penn St. The rest should be pretty tight though.
Well, just for reference, we were a ten seed in Lunardi’s bracketology before the win against MD, so he’d probably have us as an 8 or 9 seed now. Palm has us a 9 seed. Bracket Matrix has us as an 8 seed. We have no bad losses. We have the MD win. and a decent road/neutral record. There’s a pretty straightforward path to 20 wins. They have to play the games, of course, but right now just getting in looks pretty manageable, barring further injuries. The real question is whether we can get Caris back, pick up a couple more big wins and bump up to something like 21 or 22 wins before the B1G tourney and move to a 6 seed, where making a real run would be easier.
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Is SMU not ranked because they are ineligible for ncaat?
Hopefully we go 4-1 to finish out January. That would have us at 17-5 (7-2 BT).
We sure could use a good start to February with IU, MSU, and Purdue at home and Minny on the road.
Minny and Northwestern should be wins.
To get to 20 wins we’d need to win a home game against IU, MSU, Purdue, or Iowa OR win on the road @ Wiscy or @ Ohio St.
At least we get IU, MSU, and Northwestern in Ann Arbor this year.
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They’re ranked 10 in the AP but not at all in the coaches poll because of the penalties.
Love this reply. Here, as grist for the mill, is a similar discussion at mgoblog:
http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/way-too-early-bracket-matrix-update
A win VS Iowa will do huge wonders for this team. If we can beat Iowa straight off of the Maryland win I believe we are a shoe in barring anything major. Lets hope that LeVert is back soon!
Tall order, but I am looking forward to their demeanor in this game. Happy if we are in it at the end.
We match up well with Iowa too. They are more like Maryland than Purdue. We just have to play smart. Again man for man I like our talent over theirs. Let’s hope Walton has a chip on his shoulder against Giselle to. There’s no reason he cant dominate that match up.
I really hope it doesn’t turn into a lot of one on one late in the shot clock. It worked last game but Maryland missed some open looks and we hit some big shots. I even feel like donnall could do well versus Woodbury.
Id still like to see Aubrey up to 25 minutes and for Wagner to play. I can see Wilson doing something if he can start to hit the face up. He blocks shots/alters them when he’s out there. We can take these guys, there’s no doubt in my mind if they execute properly and move with a purpose/ hit the open man. I’m excited. Hopefully they are to.
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