Things to consider before freaking out about the Dawkins offer following the MAAR commitment:

Michigan Basketball
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  1. Every year you have a shot at a national championship is special. Next year, especially if Mitch stays, is one of those years. If the coaching staff feels like MAAR and Dawkins provide immediate help/depth next year, that’s a big positive.

  2. There are several ways scholarships could open for 2015. McGary is highly likely to not be on the roster. LeVert could go pro. Max could do a graduate transfer somewhere else. (Hatch might go on a medical scholarship – although JB has affirmed that he is on an athletic scholarship.) The point is that scholarships are very likely to be open and it will be shocking if we can’t take at least 2 or 3 people next year.

  3. JB and his staff have proven very adept talent evaluators. No, not every late pickup will become LeVert, but this staff has earned some credit both with late offers and the success of the past few years. And having a few guys on the team who are four-year guys is good for the team and culture. Spike may never play in the NBA or be All-B1G, but he is certainly a benefit to the team.

  4. Dawkins hasn’t committed to UM. I’m not saying the reports of an offer are false, but the coaches are well aware of the scholarship numbers and the need to have top-flight talent. Also, the coaches probably have a relationship with the prep school coaches and a scholarship offer from Michigan carries some weight, especially with their rep as evaluators. Let’s say it had been a first-to-jump deal with MAAR and Dawkins. Reports that Dawkins had been offered wouldn’t be false, and it might help Dawkins out a bit, but it wouldn’t mean Dawkins could still commit to UM. I’m just wildly speculating here, without any inside knowledge at all. The point is that Dawkins hasn’t committed and until he does, it’s probably not worth getting worked up over it.

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Re: #4 - I don’t think there’d be reports of an offer if it was a “first come first serve” type of situation. Dawkins would say he got offered, but then it was pulled off the table. I think we can safely assume it’s a committable offer.

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Kids and others report stuff that’s not exactly right all the time – like someone having a Michigan offer without ever visiting, which we know is contrary to how JB & co. do things. However, to be clear, I have no knowledge that Dawkins could not commit if he wanted to. My point is that reports have to be taken with a grain of salt. Webb said that he thought it was an either-or before the weekend and now apparently says it’s not. So getting overly worked up by a report of an offer without any commitment at this juncture is probably not worth it.

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I think you’re exactly right - you get the guys you need to win a national championship next year.

For example, we don’t beat Syracuse last year without Spike and Levert making huge contributions. Both guys were late additions, and likely considered by almost everyone as players similar to MAAR and Dawkins now - depth only. Of course, that turned out not to be true. And obviously Spike had the huge first half against Louisville to put us up 33-21 at one point with Trey on the bench.

I’m also confident we will have many, many scholarships to give out in 2015 and 2016. Caris and Mitch are gone next year (assuming Mitch returns, which is 50/50). Max likely doesn’t get a 5th year. Hatch will be on a medical scholarship. And I’d bet at least 2 of Irvin, Walton and Chatman (if not all) don’t play four years.

And, every once in awhile, guys transfer or don’t come back for a 5th year anyway.

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Yup.