This a million times over!!!
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I havenāt read every response here with regards to rescheduling and the B1G title (Iāve skimmed and tried my best), but Iām not as worried as a lot of people seem to be.
Assuming Illinois is postponed, that would give us 5 postponed games. The odds of making all of those up are basically 0, but I think we could very easily get to 18, and even 19 if we needed.
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If we move Michigan-RU from the 18th to the 17th, Michigan-OSU from the 21st to the 20th, and OSU-PSU from the 18th to the 17th, that gives Michigan 3 games from the 14th-20th with at least two days rest between each game. RU, PSU and OSU will all have at least two days off between games as well.
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Michigan would now have one game scheduled between Feb 21st and March 3rd, 2/27 @ Indiana. If you move that game to Feb 23rd, along with Indianaās 2/24 game against RU to March 3rd, that gives Michigan 8 straight days off. Once again to this point, every team will still have at least two days rest between each game.
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Indiana now has off every day between 2/24 and 3/2 (7 days) with 2 games to make up. Those games are @ MSU and @ Michigan, so back to back games in Michigan during those 7 days is the easiest way to make those games up. Michigan has 8 days off in that same span so choosing a make up date should be very easy, but MSU has a tighter schedule in that time.
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MSU has games on the 20th, 25th, 28th and March 7th right now. The game on the 7th is against Michigan, which weāll move to March 6th for now to enable an end of season double header against Michigan on the 8th as well (making up a game for both teams). In order to facilitate the Indiana makeup, the best way to handle this is move MSUās game on the 28th vs Maryland to March 3rd and put the Indiana @ MSU game on Feb 28. The only problem with this is Maryland currently has a game March 3rd against NW, but both those teams have off every day between 2/21 and 2/27, so a 2/24 reschedule works for both teams.
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Now that means you can put Michiganās game vs Indiana on 2/25. Michigan now has off every day from 2/26 to 3/2 (5 days), so there are a few options here depending on if you want to have Michigan play 18/19 conference games. Lets assume 19 for now, meaning two games need to be planned in that 5 day span. The big one is Illinois, so lets put that on 2/27. Illinois currently has a game on 2/27 vs Wisconsin, but if you push that to 3/2 the schedule works for Illinois as they donāt have another game until 3/6 vs OSU. Wisconsin currently has a game on 3/2 vs Purdue, but if you push that to 3/4 (as well as Indiana vs Purdue from 3/6 to 3/7), the schedule works for everyone.
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Now that leaves 3/1 as the last date open for Michigan to schedule either @ PSU or @ NW. The easier one to make work is @ PSU, and also pushing PSUās game vs Minnesota from March 3rd to March 4th and Minnesotaās game vs Rutgers from March 6th to March 7th.
So this is an incredibly long post. Iām pretty sure I didnāt mess anything up with these schedule dates and double book anyone or make anyone play on back to back days, but I could be wrong. But in this scenario, Michiganās new schedule would be:
- 2/14 @ Wisconsin
- 2/17 vs Rutgers
- 2/20 @ OSU
- 2/23 @ Indiana
- 2/25 vs Indiana
- 2/27 vs Illinois
- 3/1 @ PSU
- 3/4 vs Iowa
- 3/6 @ MSU
- 3/8 vs MSU
Like I said other teams have schedule changes involved too but I donāt feel like typing them all out. This new schedule isnāt perfect, Michigan is basically playing every other day from 2/23 onward, but considering the situation itās the best we can do. In this scenario Michigan is playing 19 games, and at that point I donāt think thereās much room for griping from other fan bases. If Michigan finishes more than a half game ahead or behind the pack for first place, the missed game wouldnāt matter. If Michigan finishes a half game ahead, weād have the same number of wins as anyone else in less games, so pretty fair to be conference champs. If we finish a half game back, well we lose out there so other fan bases will be happy.
If you donāt like how crowded that schedule is, you can remove the 3/1 game and just play 18 games. Leaves more room for complaining from other fan bases, but once again I donāt know how much itād matter. If we finish in first with 2 fewer losses in 2 fewer games played, no one can reasonably complain that we have the same number of wins in fewer games played (especially since one missed game is against NW). The only way it becomes an issue is if we finish tied in the standings (one fewer win and one fewer loss), but at that point call it a shared title.
Also lets remember, Torvik has us projected to a 16-4 conference record with no one else better than 13-7, so itās possible that even in missing 1/2 games we have more wins in fewer games played.
The only two caveats to all of this are:
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Any future COVID issues with Michigan or other teams mess all of this up (but also even the missed game playing field/open more dates up for make-ups if it doesnāt involve Michigan).
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I didnāt account for Nebraska in any of this. They have 6 games left to makeup, and I didnāt add in any slots for those. Since none of those games involve Michigan or MSU, itās possible those games fall nicely into slots with teams whose schedules I didnāt or barely touched. But itās also possible to make this work Nebraska has to miss more games than everyone else. Which hopefully the B1G is willing to do.
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Very good and well thought out. I think one thing to keep in mind is TV obligations. Specifically the CBS games. Iām sure its part of the reason the league would like the Wisconsin game to go off as scheduled. And that OSU game on the 21 is shaping up to be a marquee game so Iām sure CBS doesnāt want to see that moved. While this schedule makes a lot of sense the league might really keep the TV contracts in mind as well.
My preference would be for a āB1G reschedule jamboreeā in Indianapolis in place of a conference tournament. Could be fun in a different sort of way but this discussion has brought to me understand that its not gonna happen. Conference tournaments make money, every AD is in need of funds right now, so they are gonna do whatever they can to salvage the conference tournament. Whether schools are going to want to play along is another discussion.
Also one nitpick with your scheduleā¦MSU wonāt go along with it because playing on Monday the 8th will put them at a disadvantage for their Wednesday BTT game!
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Thatās fair, I didnāt take into account any TV situations. But a game like OSU-Michigan is being moved from a Sunday to a Saturday so CBS would hopefully be able to make do with that. Iām sure my rearranging created other issues though.
Is there anywhere they report how many new cases there are? One person positive is usually 5-10 positive tests over a few weeks, right?
I believe once someone is a confirmed positive they arenāt tested for some period of time. So the 7 positives would be new positives. Thatās also the lowest number weāve seen in these results in a while (which makes sense given the shutdown).
I think reading this confirmed to me that theyāre only going to get 18 games in. The only way they get more I think is if they do legit back-to-backs (2 games 2 days) with Indiana and MSU.
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it speaks highly of the student-athletesā discipline that they didnāt use the lockdown as an idle hands opportunity to party and spread infection
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I appreciate all the work you put into this, but thereās no reason teams should have to be pushed to travel & play in a compressed manner prior to the B1G tourney. I wrote this earlier, youāll wear down their immune systems and expose them to more COVID during all that travel.
The B1G canāt force teams to accept that aggressive of a schedule, thereās a reason why they give 2 days rest between games.
I for one am in favor of playing the BTT in Indy because itās a great opportunity for basically a practice run for March Madness. Youāre getting a chance to acclimate to tournament play on 1 of the courts that will be hosting MM games. Hopefully the COVID protocols are sound, and they arenāt letting a ton of fans in the buildings.
The B1G has to set a concrete date for the BTT, just like the NCAA has to set a date for MM. And you canāt force the other schools to catch-up before tourney play begins. Itās an odd year, we already have an example of the B1G caving to their minimum games rule for a conference champ in OSU football. We have a bunch of tough games already on the schedule down the stretch that were strategically placed there to match us up against the best competition. Just play out the season with the schedule on the books. Get the ADās together to discuss whether they play the BTT, then let the chips fall where they may.
I agree for the most part, you shouldnāt have to force teams to do this. Ideally playing less games is acceptable or more time is added for games to be played. But Iowa just played on Thursday after playing on Tuesday. And NCAA tournament games are played on 1 day rest. 2 days rest isnāt a rule that has to be followed.
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Big difference between 1 day rest during regular season and a tournament - all the plane/bus travel. And your schedule has the team playing with 1 day rest for 7 of the final 8 games. Slam that up against a tournament where youāre playing every day. Just a bad recipe for getting the best teams into the tournament - which is where the $$$ is.
In a COVID environment, thatās a big deal, legally, for the B1G to require teams coming off of quarantine to pack their schedules with games prior to the BTT. Iāll digress, and appreciate all the work youāve done @MichiganMan2424 to figure out the logistics for getting in the 20 regular season games.
Some comments from the league office in hereā¦ probably not as much as some people are hoping for.
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Good to get some likely scenarios on the record ( every team sees each other at least once) and some possible spec (winning percentage). So Michigan could beg off PSU, perhaps.
Love the brewing scenario of back-to-backs with Sparty.
The official AD schedule on the M Go Blue site still has the Feb 11 mens bbl vs Illinois and womens bbl @ Purdue as a go.
Dylan posted the article, but Quinn tweeted it as well with some key bullet points for those without an Athletic subscription:
https://twitter.com/BFQuinn/status/1358053275518566403
Of note here:
ā¢ in rescheduling, top priority is assuring every team plays each other at least once
ā¢ youāll likely see teams play 2 games in 3 days or on back-to-back days at single location
ā¢ based on multiple convos, winning % will likely determine final standings
ā¢ As of now, there have been no discussions of cancelling the Big Ten Tournament. Only scenario it wonāt go on would entail multiple teams on Covid pause. The league fully excepts 14 teams/no opt-outs.
ā¢ Yes, B10 Tournament appears headed to Indy. No, league canāt yet confirm. Would be highly, highly unlikely to see games not previously scheduled added to the schedule.
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Just reading through comments at mgoblog about the layoff and possible effects got me to thinking: In some ways Iām less worried about regression than the lack of opportunity to improve. This was a team that was in many ways continuing to come together, including with getting better at exploiting HD double teams. If Iām right about thisāthat itās really those opportunities to continue to develop esp. the offenseāthen the inability to play out the schedule could prove meaningful down the stretch. To put this another way: Thinking mostly intuitively, about players like Franz in particular (who was just really starting to come on before the enforced break), or Johns (tantalizing glimpses), but I think that this team has quite a bit more ceiling than it has yet reached.
I know its just words in a press release but I donāt like hearing that āā¦will begin working on rescheduling optionsā. Discussions (Iām hopingā¦) have already been going because there is not much more road to kick the can down.
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Not sure I follow? You canāt reschedule a game until a team is playing. You can think about things you might do or suggest but doesnāt really make sense to make decisions until the time comes.