I’ve seen data that suggests a 14 day layoff costs 0.5 points on average (with 21 days increasing to something like 2.3 points), but I have to assume teams were practicing in those situations. So the answer is almost definitely yes, but if only 1-2 points, I’d take it in a heartbeat.
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It’s a weak silver lining, but it appears as though they’ll be probably be 3-4 for full practices (mandates willing). That’s not perfect but that’s better than trying to play almost immediately after a extended pause.
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I’m going to just assume Michigan loses that game by a lot. I don’t see how you can expect anything else and the low expectations will hopefully keep me from being disappointed.
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Whatever happens, I feel confident that Juwan has a plan for this. Agreed that it’s hard to see a win against Illinois though.
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Unless the plan involves covert practices there’s not much Juwan can do to avoid some poor performances coming back imo. Way too long to go without practicing and expect to not have issues.
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I don’t think it portends extreme rust. These are highly athletic young adults who have been training for many years.This isn’t like NBA players not practicing for 6 months, having 2 weeks of training camp to play games that matter.
These guys are going for walks, doing workouts at home, probably even doing yoga etc…If you look closely at their schedule they are only missing out on practices mainly between the Sat Jan 23/Tue gap. I doubt they practiced Sat after the Purdue game. They probably wouldn’t have practiced much between the game @PSU and 1pm Saturday game against Indiana. Same goes for this when they were supposed to go to Evanston and then return for a 12pm start against MSU on Saturday. If they don’t get back at it come Sunday Feb 7th I would be more concerned after that.
I would make a maybe counterintuitive argument that playing a contender in the first game back could almost be better. Will help guys get up to speed quicker IMO rather than an awkward flat effort.
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I like this thought and that may actually benefit them more in the 2nd game back @ Wisconsin. Playing a top tier team, regardless of the result, will be better than jumping in with some garbage game like Rutgers or something like that. Might not get the result we want the first game, but will help them more moving forward.
Assuming a not so favorable result against Illinois makes that next game pretty important.
Yeah, I’m not quite buying that it’s a good thing that the first two games back after not practicing or playing games for two weeks are against Illinois, who may be the best team in the league not named Michigan, and Wisconsin, who will be out for revenge at home after Michigan embarrassed them last time. I think Michigan would be focused no matter who the opponent is after sitting out for two weeks. I’d rather play the easier opponent to ease our way back into things. I will be stunned if Michigan beats Illinois.
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Michigan Basketball on Fox Sports Detroit interviewed Sanderson last week. He said they have workouts planned through zoom type methods. They have jump ropes. He said they are not running outside because of winter conditions. He didn’t mention that they provided them tread mills (which surprises me). You can watch the interview if you have on demand service.
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This isn’t surprising. I am sure all the players as well have resistance/flexibility bands etc… If Michigan has to make them all up that’s when fatigue will come into play to an extent. As of now I can see how this break can be beneficial. Davis just came back from injury, Dickinson wasn’t playing at his peak levels from earlier in the year etc…
I don’t see how barely, if at all, touching a basketball for 2 weeks is beneficial for a basketball team.
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A lot of sports is muscle memory, form and repetitive nature. How is it possible a 19 year old can take a month off from throwing off a pitchers mound and when they get back they can still throw pipe shots?? These players aren’t going to forget how to shoot a basketball, how to dribble a basketball and things that have been drilled into them since they started playing competitive ball.
Playing sports and practicing day after day was a thing 20-25 years ago. It’s not so much now as coaches and staff have more info about how rest matters, getting proper sleep and how recovery matters a lot. Like I said earlier they have missed 2 games to date, and probably 4-5 practices it’s not the end of the world.
Keep in mind this is different as well from a team being hit with covid. Some teams hit weren’t able to practice and just work on skill development. If things go as planned and nobody on the team has covid they will ramp things up and practice with a full compliment of guys which is much better than a team being shutdown totally.
Just to throw out a number to make a random threshold, I’d be shocked to shoot above 30% from 3 against Illinois. Feels like a victory in that game is going to come from getting Kofi in foul trouble and having HD rampage.
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Michigan will have been shutdown totally for two weeks. Not sure how that is better than programs that can do skill work during the shutdown.
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But this also means we haven’t done anything at all. That seems worse for us.
Yes they won’t forget how to play basketball, but at this high of a level of competition, stuff on the margins matter. And not playing together for 2 weeks will have an adverse affect in the short term. Pitchers that take a month off in baseball get rehab assignments or shorter stints when they come back (at least at the MLB level). They report to spring training before anyone else.
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I see a non-trivial chance that they just go out and play with abandon, do well. And I think there’s some chance that a break could be beneficial down the stretch, though I doubt many coaches would choose not to play for two weeks. Glad they’re going to get in a couple of practices; if they’re ghastly against IL everyone will just write it off anyway. If they struggle to put it all back together, we can tear our hair out then.
I never said it was better overall but from a rest and recovery standpoint this is an important time. Didn’t Juwan say during that 2 week break they had earlier for 7 or 8 days they weren’t going to pick up a basketball?
This has more to do about the new variants out there. The UK variant is quite prevalent now but a woman from the state of Michigan recently returned from vacation in South Africa and now there is a different variant. This will continue to happen for some time and it’s why you have to get needles in arms.
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Let’s say I know all in the program have continued to test negative… given the protocols, how does the risk change between now and ~a week from today?
It doesn’t.
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