Agree to some extent. We had a lot of beatdown losses and more than a few struggling wins against teams we should have done better against. Given the circumstances (losing our best player for a huge chunk of the season AGAIN), the bare win total doesn’t look bad, but though Beilein got quite a bit out of what he had, this was not a fun team to watch.
If you tell me 23 wins without Lavert and Spike at the beginning of the year and I would have said great year. But, if you look at the season and how they accomplished the 23 wins and who they beat and how badly they lost some of those games, maybe not. For the most part they beat the teams they should have and lost to who they should have. The most frustrating part was the play of there most experienced players, Irvin and Walton. Not great decision making on they’re part, throughout the year.
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I’m just really hoping that Irvin can get healthy next year. My gosh,for him to shoot 29% from three and 65% from the FT line is absolutely horrible for a player renowned as a great shooter.
I hate to think that was the best version of himself that we saw all year.
I am leaning toward he’s actually not a good shooter. I hate when we run our offense through him. To me his best role is 10-12 shots max. Mostly to the rack and elbow jumpers. I like when he gets his looks not forced. We need his hustle on the boards and d/ loose balls. I want him to play our Glenn Robinson role. Gets his offense through garbage buckets and as our third option or so. Just play within himself and stop forcing it/ doing to much. Only shoot jumpers when wide open.
Those elbow curls were a think of beauty. He probably shot 80% on those, at least in the games I watched. His PPP on non-catch and shoot though was probably (guessing) ~0.6, and he raised the team average turnover and block rate in non-catch and shoot possessions as well for sure.
offensively, we have guyson the team who do specific things amazingly well but at the same time are horribly bad at doing other things. Our players showed little self awareness with regard to their own strengths and weakness. It was a very undisciplined team in that regard. It was frustrating to watch. Next years team will be fun to watch, insofar as our players exhibit more self awareness and team awareness in a discipled way. Basically: Stop taking bad shots!
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I sometimes think we all watch the same games, but if you see a guy shoot very well for long stretches one year, then get injured and not shoot as well, is “I am leaning toward he’s actually not a good shooter” strong analysis? The question for me is whether an off-season brings him back to his prior form.
Similar example–at the beginning of the season we all oohed and aahed over the fact that he was slipping in for layups, seemed to have acquired another gear; later in the season they were getting blocked. What does this tell us? That the guy is an idiot or incompetent? Along with being disrespectful it seems a little lacking in rigor. . . let alone compassion.
One major issue with Irvin this past season was his shot selection. It’s hard to shoot well(% wise) when you consistently take bad/forced shots.
Mechanics are a whole different story.
He didn’t shoot great last year did he? Didn’t jump out to me as a knock down shooter last year either
He isn’t a knock down shooter, never has been. He is what is called a streak shooter. He needs a couple to go down and then boom they all start going down. It’s why IMO he takes bad shots after he makes one
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I think Irvin tried or was asked to do too much last year, in addition to probably not ever being completely healthy. He seemed much more comfortable as a freshman, when shooting off the bench was his primary responsibility. He has a decent all-around game, as he showed towards the tail end of 2014-15, but he’s not who we want as our #1 option. He would do better if he were playing the 3 instead of the 4, and if he were not having to be out there for 35+ minutes a game, as he was in the Big Ten season.
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Last year Irvin had to learn to be more than a shooter. This year he has had to try to learn to be the man or go to guy in late shot clocks coming after off season surgery when was suppose to be robin to Levert’s Batman.
There is no such thing as a “streak shooter”. That meme has been well debunked statistically.
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Bingo. I hope he settles in. I think he’s an average shooter though from deep. Hence why id like him to force it less. I’m ok with the elbow looks as he has a decent midrange game or going to the rack which we always can use.
Agreed but what I’m wondering is what’s the stats finding, or the basis of the conclusion.
How does the “hot hand fallacy” account for the psychological conditions that may or may not effect the different degrees of concentration, focus and decision making, which may or may not effect a basketball shot? My guess is the PHD that wrote the paper didn’t play sports and forgot that players are not robots.
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I thought the most recent statistical analysis using SportsVU showed evidence of the hot hand?
Great article Reegs.
Zwiebel and Green argue that the original finding failed to account for a key issue. In basketball, the opposing team quickly adjusts to a “hot” player, devoting extra coverage and forcing that player to attempt more difficult shots. As a result, it’s inevitable that a hot player’s shooting percentage will decline. It’s not because the hot streak was an illusion, but rather that the hot player attracted more opposition.
crazy that there are things other than just raw numbers that come into play.
Even after they subjectively adjusted for shot difficulty,
Adjusting for the increased difficulty of the shots, the researchers
found that hot players were likely to continue outperforming. The
“hot-hand effect,” they estimated, raised their chances of making a shot
by 1.2% to 2.4%.
So a “hot” shooter makes 1 or 2 more shoots out of 100 than a “cold” shooter.
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