I saw a block or two this year that were really impressive, and he works very hard on the defensive end. I’m looking forward to a solid year from him backing up JT.
How confident were you in MSU’s offensive ceiling this year before the season started if I told you Langford wouldn’t play? Henry was ranked in the 100’s and was a freshmen. Goins? Guy hit so many big 3s in big games. He wasn’t that big of a threat the 3 previous years. McQuaid…always a threat but nothing like this year. You lose 2 lottery picks and Langford and replace them with a mish mash of freshmen and Goins etc. What happened? IMO, the team was much more of a team than the year before, the team was grittier, was senior led and had no issues to deal with in the locker room. Just a bunch of non NBA kids wanting to play and win. I know Winston was phenomenal but he had weapons and even players like Henry and other freshmen made big shots.
I look at Michigan and see 2 or 3 seniors (Simpson, Teske and maybe Pierce) all starting. I see 1 to 2 Jrs starting (Livers and Brooks). I see sophomores that were highly touted who I believe will take a big step (Castleton, DDJ, Johns, Nunez). Then throw in Wilson, Bajema, and hopefully Franz (by most accounts a top 40ish kind of player). JB has more experienced talent next year than he has had for most of his time here at Michigan. Hard to argue with that. He has hung a lot of banners working with less. I don’t think we know the upside of certain players yet.
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I get what you’re saying, but Cassius Winston is an offensive genius and when you have a piece like that, role player types that can shoot can thrive more easily. Zavier Simpson is not that type of player offensively. I do think Simpson could lead a deadly offense, but it requires knock down shooters around him. Livers is one, and this all comes back to my skepticism on who the other two pieces will be.
Could next year’s team go farther in March? Absolutely. Could they be better overall? Sure I could see that happening, especially if the defense is even more elite, and I think it will be. I agree that chemistry is important and it appears that could improve too. But my posts are specific to the offense, which I think will struggle unless high level shooters replace Brazdeikis and Poole.
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It’s time for someone to step up. I think we know that we can’t have another mostly non-contributing freshman/underclassman.
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Let’s play a hypothetical, what are the odds that the following players shoot 40% from 3-point range next year. Maybe lets rank them or put them into tiers.
Eli Brooks
Jalen Wilson
Isaiah Livers
Justin Pierce
NahShon Hyland
Franz Wagner
Brandon Johns
Cole Bajema
David DeJulius
If the goal is to get 3 40% shooters between Simpson and Teske, that’s the fundamental question.
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Was not listing Nunez an ovrsight or an indication you think he’s too unlikely to play?
My two cents here is that Livers obviously belongs in a category of his own in terms of certainty there, so there’s one out of the three you want (plus a backup, so 3.5).
Pierce has done it before with a healthy wrist and without being the focal point of the offense, so he I would assume is the next-most-likely. Maybe considering last year’s weaker performance he belongs in a tier with Wagner, who shoots in the high 30s now from the FIBA line, which is two feet longer, right?
Beyond that it’s guesswork for me personally, but if both come, the tiers below would need to produce a bench player at most, or, if one comes, a starter and a backup. Tier 3 would be Johns, DDJ, Nunez and Wilson. All shot well in HS, if I have it right (tho where do you get HS stats, and is it reasonable to take only the SR season or the career?) I’m personally not minded to judge any of the three who played this year on the limited looks they got this year, and would write them off as distance shooters only after seeing them brick it up after extended run in multiple games. After all, Poole for half the season shot not much better than Brooks’s career average, and he’s still considered a shooter.
Tier 4 I guess would be Bajema and Hyland, for not much of a good reason other than they’re seen as perhaps too skinny to play as frosh.
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Why do you think the defense will be better? I’m thinking the loss of Matthews will be significant, and only partially offset by having a quality backup center that will allow Teske to be aggressive in the first half, if that’s what the coaches want.
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Love it.
Tier 1: (Extremely confident)
Isaiah Livers
Tier 2: (Possibly, lean yes)
Franz Wagner - not sure how reliable the stats are but it said he was 10-24 (41%) in BBL games and his shooting stroke seems like it’s often listed as his biggest strength.
Tier 3: (Possibly, lean no)
Justin Pierce - obviously capable, but coming off an injury, jumping up to a higher level of competition, and did not shoot well as a freshman either. Career 68% from free throw…meh…
Brandon Johns - thought he was a great shooter in high school, could see it if he plays majority minutes at the 4
David DeJulius - definitely capable IMO
Jalen Wilson - wildcard here, think he will get an opportunity due to shot creation skills, not sure how well shooting will translate.
Adrien Nunez - believe it’s there, results obviously didn’t show in year one on many open looks.
Tier 4: (would be shocked)
Eli Brooks - just hasn’t proven capable at any point in his career yet
Cole Bajema, NahShon Hyland - can’t see them being ready for major minutes on a healthy Michigan team in year one
Mostly just thinking Simpson, Teske, Livers all in year 3 of major minutes = elite foundation. Will miss Matthews on wings without a doubt, but I thought Livers was okay in that role for a few games. If Brooks plays a bigger role, I think he’s a great defender at the 2. And as you mentioned, Castleton at the backup 5 could allow Teske to be more aggressive defensively and hopefully lose nothing when he’s out.
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My concern is a lack of quick-footed perimeter defenders beyond Z and Brooks. Livers, Johns and Wilson seem like guys who might struggle with faster 3s.
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Livers is clearly one of the top 3 players next year.
If Pierce and/or Wagner come I believe one or both are starters.
Brooks is solidly in the top 7.
Johns and Castleton showed some promise and I expect big leaps from them.
DDJ did not impress me at all and barring a big sophomore leap I am not counting on him for much next year.
Wilson has talent but is a big unknown.
Hyland reminds me of Caris and will contribute in year 2 or 3.
Nunez is a non-factor.
I admittedly have not watched enough film of Pierce defensively (actually none to be exact) but he seems like a decent athlete with a little size to him. I would never have guessed Matt McQuaid would be the most talked about MSU defender either, and I don’t view him as nearly the athlete a guy like Matthews is. I guess my point is I can see a scenario where Pierce is solid but not as good as Matthews, but we don’t drop that much because of our ability to replace Poole with a better defender. Like offense its not just the individual abilities but the cohesiveness of the group.
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UNC fans sure are confident about this one. Seems to primarily be based upon Pierce following 3 UNC players on Instagram after setting his announcement.
I like your point about Teske and fouls. I predict he continues to avoid them though.
There hasn’t been a recruit in 15 years that UNC fans haven’t felt confident about. Unabashed arrogance on the message boards is a key component of the fan base.
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I mean that sounds pretty promising for UNC all things considered.
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I wish I had an inkling about what way Wagner is leaning because that will affect my care level dramatically. If Wagner stays in Germany, I want Pierce bad. If Wagner decides to play college, I can live with whatever decision Pierce makes.
I thought I read that his dad wasn’t able to go to the UNC official visit but his mom did as well as another relative like an uncle or something.