Been a while since I’ve written a wild analytics deep dive, but what else do you want to read in June? 
Hopefully this should be a jumping off point for some discussion. I found some of the historical numbers pretty interesting myself.
Loved this. I’d be really interested in seeing some numbers on offensive efficiency for teams that replaced one specific player who was as high in on-ball usage as Zavier Simpson. My fear is there would be a major drop off consistently with the majority of teams in that situation. The breakout players chart was great intel though, I’m starting to come around on the feasibility of Franz succeeding in that role.
Yeah, a bit convoluted to get there SQL wise for a number of reasons so didn’t have an easy way to do that in bulk.
Trey Burke to Stauskas/LeVert is an example of it working out though.
Best article you have done. Thanks
Really good article Dylan. A couple questions/thoughts:
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Is it possible to break down Franz’s on ball usage over the course of the season? Do we start to see an increase in amount or percent of on ball plays as the season progressed, or is there no trend there? Same question for efficiency.
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Obviously it was high school ball and he didn’t play as much as you’d like, but Zeb’s off ball numbers seem pretty disheartening. Do you know what the big reason for those struggles were (ie poor perimeter shooting, poor finishing at the room, high TO%, etc.) and do you think those struggles are specific to Zeb or moreso the role he had on his team?
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Not a question, but the fact that a guy you have classified as a versatile big from his shot chart may also be our leading PG this season is so funny to me. Eastern’s such a unique/wonky basketball player, I really hope he plays next year so we can enjoy all his uniqueness from the front seat.
I agree with all of these comments. Tremendous insight and again thanks for having this sight.
Wrote about this somewhat here. Part of it was just that the entire C2K team was based around Zeb handling the ball, but I also just think he’s a better shooter off the dribble than off the catch. More of a guy who knows how to score than has perfect C&S mechanics. He has the rare reverse shooting splits (better OTD shooter than C&S).
Yeah, those are based on their play type stats so they are automated. I’ve joked about that with Eastern in the past. An outlier for sure.
It does tick up. (As does just about everything about his game.)
Wrote in-depth about Franz back here:
Wagner created 14 baskets out of ball screens last year, and 11 came after January 24th. The volume isn’t there — Eli Brooks created 45 pick-and-roll baskets last year, Nik Stauskas created 39 as a freshman — but the development late in the season is encouraging.
Thanks for the detailed response.
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That makes sense. To me that seems encouraging in a sense, C&S mechanics are definitely a workable skill so improvement can be expected. Also if he ends up being a ball dominant player at Michigan the idea that he’s a guy who knows how to score is obviously a plus.
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Yeah I figured they were all automated. Still, if he gets eligibility he’s going to be my favorite player/story line to watch, regardless of how productive he ends up being.
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Thanks for the numbers. The end of season uptick is definitely encouraging, and the comparison to Stauskas is pretty helpful. If you take that January 24th date you mentioned in your linked article, Wagner averaged .85 ball screen baskets per game (BSBPG) compared to .52 BSBPG over the course of the season. Stauskas was at 1.02 BSBPG his freshman year using that 39 number. Obviously that isn’t a perfect analysis, there’s probably a better way to adjust those numbers and we’re not taking into account any similar improvements Stauskas made over the course of the season, plus the obvious small sample size caveat. Obviously it’s a big leap to expect the exact same level of breakout Stauskas had, but it does seem like end of year Wagner was closing the gap to freshman year Stauskas and he is definitely a candidate to take a big leap forward in shot creation.
One reason that I think sophomores are able to break out as on-ball threats so often is that they usually come into a system and play a role because of all the pieces around them. In Wagner’s case, there was an obvious reason he rarely played on the ball (Zavier Simpson). Freshmen on winning teams usually go from 3rd or 4th options to having a team largely built around them as sophomores.
Results can vary though, Zak Irvin’s sophomore year was very different than LeVert/Stauskas sophomore year, etc.
Very good write-up. I’m glad you put the section in there about Franz (or possibly others) evolving with their game because we don’t know how much other players might evolve without Simpson running the whole show. Also good to remind people that for every Stauskas/Levert leap there’s a THJ/Irvin sophomore wildcard out there.
For me, this piece reinforces that the Smith/Eastern situation is going to be arguably the most important barometer for our season. Wagner becoming a POTY candidate would be great, but at worst he’s going to be a good player. Being able to have Smith and/or Eastern initiate offense and make the rest of the pieces fit is the real question.
Personally, I think Smith is going to be better than some think and I’m more confident that he will replicate some of his offense at the next level than I’m confident Eastern (if he’s even eligible) will be able to learn a new ball-screen system and be effective at it without any sort of jump shot.
Finally, I love Eli Brooks and I think he will play a ton of minutes for a lot of reasons…but I don’t think he’s going to turn into an offense-generating PG in this off-season. Totally agree with you there.
They say you should always write your best college basketball content three months into a lockdown with no college hoops 
Thanks though! Was fun to really dive into some bball analysis rather than just recruiting/roster/etc.
Lot of good stuff here. I agree that the Smith/Eastern situation is huge for this team and the article does a good job highlighting that hole and how those 2 could fill it. I also have the feeling that Smith is going to be sneaky good for us, at least on the offensive end. Eastern is so intriguing in a number of ways but if Smith if what we seen to think he could be it could take the ball screen pressure off of Eastern and allow him to do things we know he excels at (basically the defensive end of the floor!)
Brooks is interesting and I like what Dylan mentioned in the article. If he is on-ball he is not playing to his strength. He is probably going to have to do more of that, but if he can expand his role just a touch from last year, that is a really useful college basketball player.
Do you have your own SQL database you maintain? Or pay for a general college b-ball data source?
FYI I’m just curious because I work as a data analyst and I’m extremely jealous of your profession.
Yeah I do, pulling data from multiple sources to keep track of different stats, etc.
Thanks. It is interesting to catagorize the players this way, makes me appreciate the challenges coaches face in piecing it all together. I like the conclusion that Michigan has multiple options for how it all might fit together.
Agree. If Mike Smith is an average big ten PG next year I think this team can really go places even without Eastern or Brown (if Livers returns). If Smith struggles or is more of a backup quality player it starts to shift everyone out of their comfort zone. Brooks has to play more PG, Wagner has to be more of an on ball creator, Eastern has to initiate offense, Livers has to create more shots for himself, etc.
this was great. i love your player descriptors. can you publish your complete list?
Just want to chime in as well with support of this piece Dylan. Really great work, and I think the on-ball/off-ball framework you use here is something that will be helpful and interesting to track going forward.