Remaining games path to NCAAs and B1G Title

With an 8-4 nonconference record the assumption was Michigan needed a 10-8 B1G record or better to make the NCAA tournament. Well on their way to beating that mark the NCAA “bid line” has moved down for them. It’s most likely that the B1G regular season champion will have 3 or 4 losses, that line therefore is marked with somewhat less certainty but also very approachable with this last week of three enormous victories.

Kenpom rating in parentheses, all games are with 2 days of rest unless denoted otherwise.

Purdue (107) - 4 days rest
@Illinois (89)
Nebraska (74)
------- NCAA Tournament -------
@Purdue (107)
Indiana (64) - 3 days rest
@Indiana (64)
Minnesota (29)
------- B1G Championship -------
@Ohio State (18)
Wisconsin (13) - 4 days rest
Michigan State (12) - 6 days rest
@Iowa (4)

The remaining question is what is the competition doing to get to 4+ losses. MSU (1 loss), Iowa (2 losses), and Wisconsin (3) are the only teams still realistically competing for a title. There will be guaranteed four more losses in games they play each other. What are each of those teams remaining games vs upper half B1G opponents? MSU will be without Dawson for both road games at Iowa and Wisconsin.


vs Iowa
@ Wisconsin
@ Michigan
@ Iowa


@ Minnesota


@ Iowa
@ Michigan

Summary: Look for Michigan to hold serve at home vs the top teams and go through the remaining bottom half of the league at 5-1, which would give them a 15-3 B1G record and almost assuredly a conference title. However, while Michigan can certainly win any game they can also lose any game and they are about to get deep into a grind where they play a game every third day for a month that will surely test the resolve and tenacity of the younger players.

I would not be surprised if there was a tie for the championship again. This is how I see Michigan going the rest of the way, barring injuries:

Home wins over Purdue, Neb, Indiana, and Minnesota.

Away win over Illinois

Difficult games I see going either way: @Indiana, @Purdue, @OSU, Home vs MSU, Home vs Wisconsin - I see us winning 2 of these 5.

Likely loss - @Iowa

That would put us at 14-4 and a probable tie with either Iowa or MSU.

Just my opinion on how it might shake out.