Projecting the 2017-18 rotation


#1

Haha, something new to rank: probability of being in the 8 man rotation:

Mo 100%
Simmons 100%
MAAR 100%
Davis 95%
Duncan 90%
Matthews 85%
Livers 70%
X 60%
Poole 60%
Ibi 30%
Brooks 30%
Teske 30%


Detailed Beilein interview with Steve Kornacki
#2

Interesting points about fouling, though MAAR only averaged 2.9/40 vs DR’s 3.7 and Moe’s 4.5. Of other returnees, X 5.7, Teske 6.6, in limited minutes, so that bears watching.

On the flip side, Irvin and Walton only averaged 1.4 (13th nationally) and 2.0, respectively, so whoever takes up the slack in their minutes is likely to foul at a higher rate.


#3

Wagner, Simmons, MAAR, Duncan, Matthews and Simpson are basically locks for the 8 man rotation. They need to be first on the list and just move them to 100%.

Then there are two spots up for grabs if you want to cap it at 8: backup big man spot (Davis or Teske) and backup wing/guard spot (either big (Livers) or small (Watson/Poole/Ibi/Brooks).


#4

:thinking: :thinking: :thinking:


#5

I can’t resist this kind of stuff:

Mo 100
Simmons 100
Maar 100
Matthews 100
X 100

Robinson 70
Livers 60
Poole 50
Brooks 15
Ibi 5

Teske 55
Davis 45

It reflects that I think Robinson is not necessarily a lock; Poole and Livers will not be far behind Robinson but will comfortably ahead of Brooks and Ibi; Teske is ahead of Davis despite the reports.


#6

What’s the rational for Duncan not being a lock to make the 8-man rotation? He’s now a senior and has been in the rotation the two years that he’s been here.


#7

Agreed. It’s one thing to say he’s not a lock to start but there is no way he isn’t part of the rotation. He is absolutely a lock to be in the rotation.


#8

Dylan, I think this debate will continue on for a while. It might be worthwhile to break “probability of being in the 8 man rotation” into a separate thread. As gtfomy said, it’s hard to resist.

BTW, I don’t agree with some of your locks, which I will explain later.


#9

I like this idea a lot


#10

Split it out… I don’t really see anything controversial with the locks. 4 of them were rotation guys last year and either started or the starter ahead of them graduated. The other two are the transfers who everyone has locked into the top-8 I’d assume.


#11

I think Matthews is more like 100% to be in the rotation but otherwise that looks about right to me.


#12

100%
Simmons
Maar
Matthews
Mo
Robinson
Simpson

80% Davis
60% Poole
50% Livers
20% Teske
50% Watson
20% Brooks

Also listed in order of minutes/game


#13

I think we may have a 9 man rotation this year…with man 9 receiving like 4-5 minutes a game, but in pretty reliable fashion.


#14

I agree, I think we play 9 pretty consistently


#15

Here’s my take (warning long post ahead): One of the reasons JB has been able to keep such a tight rotation every year is he has usually had multiple players playing nearly 35 minutes per game at the guard or wing spots so he has only needed 1 backup to cover the leftovers.

Going back to 2009, every season but two has had multiple guys playing 34 minutes or more, and often there has been a third right below at 33 MPG…Here’s every player under JB that has played more than 34 MPG:

2009-2010: Junior Manny Harris (36.1)
2010-2011: Sophomore Darius Morris (34.8) and junior Zack Novak (35.0)
2011-2012: Freshman Trey Burke (36.1) and sophomore Tim Hardaway Jr (34.2)
2012-2013: Sophomore Trey Burke (35.3) and junior Tim Hardaway Jr (34.8)
2013-2014: Sophomore Nik Stauskas (35.6) and sophomore Caris Levert (34.0)
2014-2015: Junior Caris Levert (35.8) and sophomore Zak Irvin (36.3)
2015-2016: NONE
2016-2017: Senior Derrick Walton (34.8) and senior Zak irvin (35.4)

Pretty much all these guys either:
A) declared for the draft after the season (or could have)
B) were upperclassmen/good defenders like Novak or Walton and Irvin last year

Really the only outliers here are sophomore Levert (who made an unexpected huge jump in minutes and performance) and sophomore Irvin (who was forced to play major minutes due to Walton & Levert injuries)

Stupidly long post (sorry Dylan)…but I guess my point is, there’s a difference between a 35 MPG star that we usually have had multiple of and a 25-30 MPG rotation-lock starter like a Stu Douglass. Just because we have guys returning that have been contributors doesn’t mean we have these locks that are basically playing the entire game and can mix and match with only one backup covering for all the starters.

Simmons - 30
MAAR - 30
Matthews - 30
Duncan - 25
Wagner - 25

If X gets the other 10 at backup point guard all to himself, Davis gets the other 15 at backup center, that still leaves 35 minutes behind the other 3 to split. There’s no reason to say “it has to be either livers or one of Poole, Watson or Brooks”. A 9 or 10 man rotation makes more sense on paper to me with the current roster barring a major leap from anyone.


#18

That is fair… I think the hope is that one of those guys turns into the most reliable player and sort of establishes himself. If two of them are great, that is fine, but if all of them are just okay… that’s probably worse.


#19

Simple. If we limit it to the 8 man roatation as proposed, then we have 5 locks and 1 of Teske and Davis will be in a hypothetical 8 man rotation. This leaves us with 2 extra spots. I believe Robinson is the most likely between Robinson, Livers and Poole but I believe the competition for the last 2 spots will be between those 3. I am not trying to put Robinson down but I just think Livers and Poole are very talented.


#20

Yeah, I guess if Livers are Poole are that good then the rotation expands to 9. There are only a couple guys on this roster who have played significant minutes in a Big Ten season and Duncan Robinson is one of them.


#21

We may want Duncan to be a better defender but Dylan is right to keep pointing out he has played a lot, and been an effective player. It’s absurd to me that anyone suggests he’ll play less than last year or fall out of the rotation. I like our recruits, but they aren’t the Fab Five. If they are well then late March will be really fun and you can tell me how wrong I was.


#22