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Do you think Douglass would start over MAAR next year? I don’t.
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Hulls was the perfect role player on a loaded team.
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I don’t think Mullins is as good as Hulls, but if he hits that Hulls-level ceiling then he would get starter minutes. Mullins in the Ivy League was pretty even to Hulls in the Big Ten. I’d think Hulls would have been more impressive in the Ivy League and Mullins would be more a of a Hulls-lite in the Big Ten.
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You citing MPG from injury ridden seasons doesn’t mean much. Spike was about 10-15 mpg when everyone was healthy which is about where I’d expect Mullins to be. That is fine, though, because Michigan needs that depth.
You said Mullins would be used like Spike, and I was simply pointing out that Spike played over MAAR alongside Walton and was ahead of MAAR in the rotation that year. But MAAR has improved and Spike and Mullins aren’t the same player.
Again, you brought up Douglass and Hulls, and I pointed out that both were starters on B1G champs. Hulls also averaged 11 points and shot 41% from 3 on a really bad IU team. Shooting and passing are pretty important in college basketball.
As I said, all this suggests to me that Mullins would get a real opportunity to be something more than “SG depth.”
MAAR was a freshman that year and very inefficient. He was much better as a sophomore. Spike playing over MAAR in 2014/2015 really doesn’t mean anything to me going into 2016/2017 because of how much MAAR improved. The only players that played more MPG than MAAR last season in conference play were Walton and Irvin.
I brought up Douglass and Hulls because people asked for and like comparisons. What relevance does “being a starter on a Big Ten champ” have? Does that make Stu Douglass better than MAAR? I don’t think so.
Sure, he’d “get the opportunity”, because competition is always a good thing. Realistically, he’d be backing up MAAR and providing depth at PG and SG. If there were to be any injury to Walton/Simpson/MAAR, then Mullins minutes would go up just like Spikes did.
PnR and shooting off the dribble are things MAAR has not become proficient with to this point. There is a role for Mullins on this team.
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Well, who was the competition for MAAR’s minutes after LeVert went down? Pretty much the only option was moving Zak down to the two. Thus, looking at MAAR’s minutes after LeVert went down is arguably less relevant than when MAAR had any real competition at the 2.
But I agree MAAR has gotten better, and I’m not saying I’d expect Mullins to start over MAAR. But I don’t think it’s quite so far-fetched as some seem to believe and I certainly think there’s a significant likelihood that Mullins would get more than just a few minutes spelling MAAR.
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FWIW, I was also probably harder on MAAR after his freshman year than just about anyone else on the forums (@WindsorBlue and @mpbear14 can confirm), so it’s not like I’m just sunshine pumping for MAAR. Also, I really like what Mullins could add to this team. I thought I was going to be the optimistic one in terms of his value to the 2016/2017 team, but you’re making me sound like the doubter lol. It’s not like I’m saying Mullins is bad or will sit the bench. I’m saying that I see Walton and MAAR both deserving of 28-30 mpg and that leaves about 20-24 mpg between Mullins and Simpson.
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Sure, I can agree that looking at MAAR’s minutes when LeVert went down and Spikes minutes in 2014/2015 are both irrelevant.
MAAR didn’t just get better, he got a lot better. Conference numbers from freshman to sophomore year:
-Increased FG % significantly. (Shot 48.1% from the field in 2015/2016 conference play which is really high for a SG).
-Increased 3pt % from putrid to average.
-Increased assists and assist rate.
-Cut his turnover rate in half
If you go back and look, I certainly harped on MAAR’s issues heading into this season. As a freshman, MAAR was a liability on offense because he couldn’t shoot, wasn’t an efficient scorer, couldn’t pass, and turned the ball over too much. He improved all of those areas. Unless he regresses, I don’t see how he doesn’t demand ~30mpg.
If anything, if Mullins comes in at Hulls-level, I think the one most at risk of losing minutes would be Simpson. I think Mullins getting 10mpg at PG and 10mpg at SG is more likely than Mullins and MAAR splitting time evenly at SG.
We shall see, or maybe not if Mullins heads elsewhere…
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On second thought, if we take Mullins, we still have 80 minutes at the 3 and 4. Irvin is guaranteed 30+ mpg, but that still leaves 50 for Duncan and Kam/D.J. (I’m going to assume that Wagner plays strictly the 5 until Teske or Davis prove they are ready to contribute).
Let’s say Duncan is at 25-30 mpg, that still leaves 25-30mpg for Kam and/or D.J. I hope they can step up, but if not it wouldn’t surprise me to see a 3 guard lineup used a lot (ie. Walton-Mullins-MAAR-Irvin-Donnal). That is pretty small, but taking a look back at other years:
Top 5 mpg…
2010: Lucas-Perry, Douglass, Harris, Noak, Sims
2011: Morris, Douglass, THJ, Novak, Morgan
2012: Burke, Douglass, THJ, Novak, Morgan
2013: Burke, Stauskas, THJ, GRIII, McGary
2014: Walton, Stauskas, LeVert, GRIII, Morgan
Rebounding would suck, but defensively MAAR should be able to guard SFs as well as Hardaway, Harris, and LeVert did.
I think you touched on the key with Mullins. I really don’t see him eating maar, Simpson or waltons minutes (at least not considerably beyond what they should be playing with rest and merit). He will eat at Duncan’s minutes. Not directly but if you put Mullins at he 2 and slide maar to a small 3, you get adequate minutes for Mullins. While not ELITE shooter that Duncan is, he is absolutely no slouch but also brings a much more diverse game to the table with his ability to handle the ball, shoot off the dribble, pass and effectively use the PnR. I really want Chatman to be a factor this year but I am not banking on it and if that is the case, I think that there are ample minutes that trickle to a player like Mullins
I don’t think it is either, especially if it allows Walton to play off the ball more.
How is he defensively? Offense obviously matters but there needs to be a larger emphasis on the ability to lock guys up. It probably won’t come from current guys on the roster as we haven’t seen it for a few years so it will have to come from the newcomers.
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Love MAAR, but am pretty impressed digging around and looking at Mullin’s video. And they would contribute in very different ways. Mullins could surprise. He has to want us first, though. We don’t know what he wants to study, for example.
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Spike visiting Purdue
Question for everyone: If Spike tests out as healthy then do you think a healthy Spike would a) Beat out x for minutes? And, b) Be better than Mullins?
I say “yes” to both.
I get the feeling that people think they are getting the next Burke with x. based on video I am not convinced we are even getting the next Walton. Do people really love Mullin’s video that much? I don’t see it. Numbers are good but it is weaker competition and maybe higher usage opportunities… He looks like a pretty bad defender to me.
I don’t agree with the majority opinion of the "educated basketball fan"that supports letting Spike go. I wonder what the less educated fans think–the fans that are not obsessed over the team’s constitution? It seems like there is an insane amount of love for Spike. My guess is the many, many people that love Michigan basketball but do not follow the team super closely will be outraged if Spike is let go and is healthy some place else. my sense is that letting Spike go could really hurt the program if things shakeout the “wrong” way. If Spike can show that he is probably going to be healthy, then picking up Mullin’s does not seem worth the risk to me. Not even close.
I would answer no to both questions.
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Michigan’s coaching staff probably has a pretty good idea of the likelihood of Spike playing at a high level next year. The fact that they are letting him go even though they have an open scholarship is pretty telling.
As someone who loved Spike and don’t like the idea of him finishing his career elsewhere, I think that taking a healthy Mullins over a maybe-healthy Spike is a pretty easy choice.
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It’s time to put to rest the idea that Louisville game spike will be returning next year.
Spike will not make the team better. Best of luck to him wherever he ends up.
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Unless someone better is out there and interested, we need to go full bore for Mullins. He would be a better fit at the 2 than anyone else on the roster right now, and that is an area of critical need. I like MAAR, but the cold, hard fact is that he is not the kind of guy we need starting at SG in a Beilein offense. If we’re having to play him 30 minutes a game at the 2 next year, that’s a problem. On a team at the talent level we’d like to be, he’s a rotation player but not a starter.
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You could say that about our entire roster heading into next year.
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