Poll: Project Michigan's Big Ten record at the end of January

Maybe you could explain to us why “rounding” would place a number in an option that no one selected. Rounding usually means turning fractions into whole numbers or to a number divisible by some other number. I believe what you are saying is true, it just doesn’t make sense.

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I didn’t write the code for the poll, but it seems like it just adds up the whole number percentages of the actual votes (right now they add up to 97) and just dumps a 1% in each bucket with the remaining three. Why? I have no idea, doesn’t seem like the best way to handle that.

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The interesting thing is an 11 point swing between the road loss at Purdue and projected Maryland win.

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KenPom is down on Maryland again this year because the Terps play so many close games. Add in home court advantage and it makes sense. Last year they way overachieved in the Big Ten based on their EM stats because they weren’t a very good offensive team. Early returns are that they’ve fixed those problems, but still getting caught up in plenty of close games, especially early.

I’m of the opinion that teams with great PG play will be the teams that out-achieve their EM stats (called ‘luck’ in KenPom metrics) more often.

Home court advantage is usually about 3 to 3.5 points. So that is a 6-7 point swing there. Kenpom has Purdue 5th and Maryland 14th, so that must account for the other 4-5 ponts.

I see closer games against upper tier teams like GTown, UConn, UNC. Yes Rider is a close game I guess. Their other games they have won quite comfortably last 2 games by 21 points each, a win by 41, 23, and 17. Does KenPom penalize you for winning a game by 12 when you’re expected to win by 19?

The whole rankings are based on margin of victory (by possession) and adjusted for strength of schedule. The predictions are just done based off of those rankings. So it has an effect in the sense that it would slightly adjust your pythag rating downward.

Maryland entered Big Ten play ranked around 25 last year I think and finished the season ranked 32nd. Those numbers are pretty low for a team that went 14-4 in the Big Ten (remind me a bit of the Michigan team that shared the league ranked 23rd).

This year they are at 14th which is lower than they are in the polls, but still higher than they really ever were last season. But it’s not like the numbers say they are a bad team or anything like that, just not as high as on Purdue (ranked 4th).

I agree with the 5 you listed as wins but see the rest as loses. Maybe we can steal one to go 6-3 but that is pretty much the ceiling.