Brendan over-valuing some of these MSU players…Where is Watts and Henry going after this year?
Watts isn’t a PG, isn’t and won’t be efficient playing 30+ mins and isn’t an NBA quality player. Also, if he’s shooting under 32% from 3…he’s going to be drafted at the 1?
Henery can’t shoot for a 6’6 wing and doesn’t go right.
Love the podcast. Both of you do a great job.
I think that it is always safe to assume that a guy who tests the waters in Year X will be gone after Year X+1.
I also think that decisions about going pro or not often have more variables than where a player would be drafted.
Unless you’re Nojel Eastern. (Didn’t he start testing the waters after his sophomore season in high school?)
In the podcast, you and Brendan were trumpeting MSU’s lack of transfers, which is certainly admirable, but then when you were trying to fit MSU’s pieces and potential re-classifications into a sufficient number to meet scholarship limits, Brendan opined that maybe 2 or more of this year’s junior class (other than Henry, who would make 3) might well not be on the roster in '21-'22. I don’t remember any Izzo kids transferring after 3 years on the roster, I know that there weren’t any Beilein kids who did so, and it’s quite uncommon throughout college basketball–normally, if you haven’t played as much as you’d like and want to transfer, it comes after 2 years, where there are multiple eligibility years remaining, or you have a degree. So how is MSU going to make those guys disappear? Are they going to go away from the family atmosphere you and Brendan discussed and force kids out? Will some of those kids graduate in 3 years? Will one or more of Bingham, Kither, Brown and/or Lower suddenly go from bottom of the rotation player to early NBA entry?
As I think I said on the pod… it I was going to be a senior on next year’s team I would be loading up on credits in the summer.
Also there’s the possibility of a blanket transfer waiver next offseason.
I’m not sure I think it is admirable that MSU hasn’t had transfers. Just a unique stat.
As I always say here about “over recruiting” … it always works itself out.
Yes and no–if I’m a kid who isn’t going to be a big time contributor in a high level program whether I transfer or not, I’m not sure I break my neck academically so I can get out in 3 years and play 1 year at another program rather than ride along on a possible championship express. Maybe this year is different because, with COVID, the academic side may be less challenging, but cramming credits in 1 year unless you’re close to begin with is likely to be difficult if there is any academic integrity at a school. Doing it for 2 years of eligibility if there has been a redshirt–sure–but there hasn’t been a redshirt for any of those kids. 1 year–that rarely happens, and even an immediate blanket transfer waiver doesn’t really change that equation.
I agree that over-recruiting always works its way out. Often though, it does so on the backs of kids who have done nothing wrong other than be less good than the coach who recruited them thought they’d be. That’s life in the big city I guess, but if, for example, you went to IU when “spring Creaning” was a recognized thing, you knew what you were getting into when you went. At a school which hasn’t had a transfer in 5 years, to suddenly be told that you’re going to have to move on after your junior year whether you want to or not seems to be a contradiction of the whole family atmosphere thing.
I agree with all that.
I suppose I assumed BQ was touting Watts and Henry as surefire NBA draft picks.
I mean Henry is a pretty sure fire pick. He has really good catch and shoot numbers, athletic. Watts obviously has much more to prove.
My personal take is that anyone who thinks that Watts doesn’t have it in him to be an NBA player is gonna be shocked this year if we play a season.
I don’t think he’s ever been a very efficient player, has he? He’s a higher volume type.
They’ll be depending on him this year with no other true option for PG. He’s not a natural PG. He might put up some numbers, but it’ll take a lot to get there, IMO.
NBA- He’s 6’2 and not a PG. Not many 6’2 SG’s with average athleticism in the league. Not saying he’ll never get there but… I just don’t see the fit. Maybe that will change if he proves himself at the 1.
Henry- Maybe a team takes a shot at him in the second…I could potentially see that.
I think Watts has a massive wing span and plus athleticism (even for the NBA). The NBA, who broadly thinks college development programs suck big time, are going to care about that far more than on court production. Watts’ physical profile is one where needs to almost prove he can’t play to not be a prospect. Contrast that to like Eli Brooks, where no amount of production will convince them he can play in the NBA.
Watts actually had a negative wingspan if I recall from a camp going into his senior season. Either that or it’s equal
Both Michigan and MSU are going to be fascinating to watch this year if there is a season. I’m particularly interested in the MSU storylines, which are mentioned on this particular pod:
- Both Dylan and Brenden have already written Langford in as the starting SG…even though he’s missed the last two seasons with an injury.
- The public opinion on Watts is all over the map and he’s perhaps the most critical barometer of MSU’s ceiling. Some think he’s going to play his way into an early-NBA departure. Others think he’s an inefficient combo guard who will be asked to replace Winston as a pure PG.
- There are so many talented but unproven guys on the MSU roster that are impossible to predict since they have either few or mixed on-court highlights (Brown, Bingham, Hall, Loyer, Marble)
- They brought in two 4-star recruits at positions of need that are almost forgotten about because of the recruits coming in the following classes
- Aaron Henry is a very good player…but will he ever be more than a valuable role player and achieve the NBA potential he may have?
- What does their rotation at guard and center look like?
- Everyone seems to love Hauser and think he’s going to be one of the pillars of their offense…but he didn’t even score double figures when he was at Marquette two years ago.
Then there’s the underlying storyline of their roster capacity after the season and whether Izzo pushes guys out the door - something that goes against Izzo’s past approach completely.
As far as Hauser is concerned, I would be surprised if he is not a very good player at MSU. He averaged almost 10 and 5 a game as a true freshman. Big men typically aren’t as ready to contribute right away and he still had a very good freshman year. If Dickinson averages 10 and 5 this upcoming (hopefully) season, we would be expecting massive things from his his sophomore year. He also practiced with Xavier Tillman for a whole year and I think that kind of thing is invaluable.
He’s a good 3 point shooter. Only concern for me is his 2 pt FG%. I haven’t looked at a shot chart for him, so I don’t know what kind of 2 pointers he was taking. If it was mostly inside the paint, that’s not a very good percentage, particularly for a 6’9", 220 pound guy. If he was settling for many midrange jumpers quite a bit, it might just be a matter of shot selection.
If Hauser made 2nd or 3rd team All-B1G, I would not be all that shocked.
Don’t get me wrong - I think Hauser is going to be good also. MSU should be thrilled to have him and as the #2 or #3 guy on that team he could thrive. I’m just saying that he’s talked about frequently as being one of the foundations of their offense (I doubt he’ll be a conventional defender in Izzo’s system) and he has to prove that he’s capable of that.
Yeah, he has to prove it. But he’s in his third year of college ball. If he played last year and followed a normal developmental trajectory, he would have most likely averaged around 12 and 6. In which case I don’t think anyone would be questioning whether he’d be a foundation of the offense. Saying he didn’t average double digits as a fresh isn’t really a point against him IMO.
Isaiah “only” averaged 12 and 4 last year as a junior. And I have no concerns about him being one of our best players and one of the focal points of the offense.