Past comparisons - tourney success

I did some research this morning to add to some of the discussions we had last week about comparing this year’s Michigan team to similar ones elsewhere from prior years. I went through each year from 2016 back to 2010 and identified the most similar team from a KenPom profile and looked up how they finished the regular season record-wise, their tourney seed and if they made a run or not. Here’s what I found:

2017 Michigan:
KenPom Off: 8 Def: 92
Current record: 19-10

2016 Iowa State:
KenPom Off: 7 Def: 91
Record before NCAA tournament: 21-11
Seed: 4
Key players: Monte Morris, Georges Niang
Tourney results: Sweet 16 (W - 13. Iona, W - 12. Little Rock, L - 1. Virginia)

2015 BYU:
KenPom Off: 10 Def: 139
Record before NCAA tournament: 25-9
Seed: 11 - in the First Four
Key players: Tyler Haws, Kyle Collinsworth
Tourney results: Lost in First Four to Ole Miss

2014 Oregon:
KenPom Off: 8 Def: 79
Record before NCAA tournament: 23-9
Seed: 7
Key players: Joe Young
Tourney results: Round of 32 - (W - 10. BYU, L - 2. Wisconsin)

2013 Iowa State:
KenPom Off: 8 Def: 126
Record before NCAA tournament: 22-11
Seed: 10
Key players: Melvin Ejim, Georges Niang, Korie Lucious
Tourney results: Round of 32 (W - 7. Notre Dame, L - 2. Ohio State)

2012 Florida:
KenPom Off: 3 Def: 81
Record before NCAA tournament: 23-10
Seed: 7
Key players: Bradley Beal, Kenny Boynton
Tourney results: Elite 8 (W - 10. Virginia, W - 15. Norfolk State, W - 3. Marquette, L - 4. Louisville)

2011 Arizona:
KenPom Off: 11 Def: 70
Record before NCAA tournament: 27-7
Seed: 5
Key players: Derrick Williams, Solomon Hill
Tourney results: Elite 8 (W - 12. Memphis, W - 4. Texas, W - 1. Duke, L - 3. UConn)

2010 Cal:
KenPom Off: 3 Def: 81
Record before NCAA tournament: 23-10
Seed: 8
Key players: Jerome Randle, Jamal Boykin
Tourney results: Round of 32 (W - 9. Louisville, L - 1. Duke)

Most of these teams had one or less NBA caliber player, with the only exception being 2011 Arizona. For the 3 teams that made it to the Sweet 16 or further, they were seeded 4, 5 and 7. Two of those runs featured some luck with a major upset providing an easier path (2016 Little Rock, 2012 Norfolk State). I think getting up to a 7 seed (or higher) with a run these next two weeks would be huge. 2011 Arizona is probably my favorite comparison here. Their starting backcourt was LaMont Jones and Kyle Fogg, had versatile forwards in Williams and Hill who were future pros. They had a 5 seed however, so it will be much harder for us to make a run this year.


Nice research here. I’m wondering if Michigan could get a little seeding bump based on its record down the stretch. Does the committee still like to look at record in the last ten games?

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thanks for looking all this up


Thanks, I would’ve been interested to see overall kenpom numbers too (if you ever do it again). no first round exits outside BYU but a lot in the second round. gets pretty easy to face some really good teams quickly.

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My understanding is Last10 (or Last12) has been removed from the “official” calculations provided to the committee ----- but in a “human evaluation” any element could be used to make a subjective decision/comparison.


Not necessarily directly related here and don’t want to get off topic, but in a semi-related note you can also combine this with Beilein’s success in first round games.

Looks like those teams have had success, plus Beilein has been great getting W’s in first round games in BTT and NCAA Tournament.

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buckets gettin’ buckets! Nice research.


Good research! Does anyone know the last 6 seed to make the final four? Hint: If you are reading this blog, it is probably your favorite team.


That was a Fabulous season!

For whatever reasons, JB’s teams have been pretty bad in the Big 10 tourney. This would be a nice time to reverse that trend and win at least a couple games.

The Beilein special has been 1 win, 1 loss, get outta town. A couple exceptions in there, but that has always seemed to be the trend.

Saw an article on my phone today from the ESPN app that is picking Michigan to win the BTT right now (if someone can embed or link that’d be great). Way too much uncertainties in seeding to make that claim (imo), but obviously some optimism outside Ann Arbor.

it’s paywalled i believe, but for those with access it is here: