We also overrecruited with the 2016 class. It’s putting yourself at a disadvantage if you aren’t recruiting assuming attrition. It’s how we end up missing out on Langford and had to scramble for Muhammad and Dawkins at the last second.
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We both have are biases in this discussion. I think you are greatly undervaluing Wagner. I may be greatly overvaluing his abilities and marketability. In the end we both may be wrong in our assumptions.
I don’t think oversigning by 1 means much because attrition could happen any number of ways. But obviously Moe tested the waters, indicating an exit this year was quite possible.
We’d have to see how he does at the combine, but I think it’s underestimating Moe’s draft stock to think he’s a bottom of the second round guy. I’ll be pretty surprised if he goes and isn’t picked in the top 40. Remember, he’s young for his class, only 20, younger than DJ was this time last year. At 6’11", he’s a proven 3-point shooter, showed he can take it to the rim/finish around the basket, showed some real deft passing, and was an excellent rebounder this year. And he’s got a lot of intangibles, not to mention he might sell some jerseys in Germany.
Also, the things holding Moe back from being more highly ranked aren’t going to change all that much. Maybe next year’s offense is a juggernaut that allows Moe to really show out, but if he stays it’s because he really wants to be at Michigan another year and earn a degree.
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The most important off season need for the team is guard play. For the team to have optimal success next year several things need to happen. Guard play is going to have to be better skill wise. The team will need Brooks (need to bet stronger) and DeJulius to step up and step in. Zavier (must develop some type of offense) and Poole will need to improve (Poole I can see the jump happening). Wing players need to step up such as Livers and Ibi if he returns. The freshman combo wings are going to be very important. 'JB will need to establish a consistent small ball line up as teams like Villianova will give players with Teske’s size and skill level problems. Castelton may not be ready next year but I like his size athletic ability and skill level. The teams shooters need to improve both in spot up and off the dribble.
Defense kept the team in many games but this has to be the worst shooting guards JB has had since he came to MIchigan. Sorry for the ramble.
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The DraftExpress guys (now at ESPN), have him at 49th on their big board and 45th in their mock draft. They’re by far the best in the business and they evaluated him recently.
The fact is that Mo’s frame, athleticism, length and overall defensive ability will always limit his NBA upside.
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Measurements
Height (with shoes): 6-foot-11.3 (sixth out of 66)
Wingspan: 7-foot-0 (27th out of 66)
Standing Reach: 9-foot-0 (19th out of 66)
Weight: 231 pounds (21st out of 66)
Body Fat: 6.7 percent (30th out of 64)
Hand width and length: 10.75 inches (t-first) and 8.75 inches (38th)
Testing
Lane Agility: 12.0 (46th out of 55)
Shuttle Run: 2.98 (t-11th out of 55)
Three-Quarter Sprint: 3.35 (36th out of 55)
Standing Vertical Leap: 25.5 (t-51th out of 55)
Max Vertical Leap: 32.5 (t-39th out of 55)
I don’t really get this argument at all. Beilein doesn’t want two centers on the roster and if there was at all a possibility of Moe leaving then it made sense to get another. Obviously there was a possibility of Moe leaving given that he tested the waters last year and was on draft boards. That doesn’t mean Beilein “knows something.” He could, but the fact that Colin Castleton committed doesn’t prove that.
You have to go back only two years to the 2016 team to find a 4 center roster (Doyle, Wagner, Donnal, and Wilson while he was still a center.
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So they have him going 45 before his 40 pt, 22 rb Final Four, and before he has a chance to improve on his weak combine performance of last year. I’ll be much more interested in seeing where they project Moe, if he declares, after the combine. And it’s not like his athleticism and length are going to change much in the next year.
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I would be very surprised if Moe doesn’t stay in the NBA Draft after this year.
I would guess that Charles Matthews tries to go to the combine and do some workouts but ends up coming back.
Just my guesses as things stand today.
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I really don’t think another year will improve Wagner’s draft stock that much. His limitations are what they are. That being said, he definitely seems to like the college experience and it doesn’t seem like we should rule out him coming back for non-draft stock related purposes. I’d still put money on him leaving though.
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I don’t think a dominant offensive rebounding performance versus Loyola where he was being guard by a 6’6" guy for most of his minutes is going to change how the NBA views him. I also don’t anticipate his combine performance to improve too much except probably a better showing in the 5v5.
I’d agree that his stock is basically maxed out, but I just think it is low enough that he would prefer to come back over the 50/50 shot he has at getting an NBA minimum deal.
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I feel like you could talk me into any of the guys on the roster leaving for one reason or another. Moe is the obvious choice but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if there’s was one or two unexpected departures regardless of whatever decision Moe makes.
This year has reminded me of 2012 all along. That year resulted in 3 transfers before Trey Burke made his surprising decision to return (he was projected very similarly to Moe. Some had him as a first round lock, others as a late second round pick).
I understand your argument. Limited NBA upside does not equal not being in the NBA. I think every M player in the NBA has limited upside and had limited upside when drafted. Never saw any of them as an All Star.
Wagner is an international icon!!! I’m exaggerating, but the kid has marketability. Some shoe company is going to pay that young man
I think Wagner will make a lot of money playing basketball next year. Being a Euro gives him many advantages over American kids when it comes to playing in Europe (should he not get drafted in 1st round)
A 24/15 (3-7 3pt) game on the biggest stage can make an impression, and it just takes one team. And being able to adjust to big and small is important for Moe’s stock and in today’s NBA. He also went for 16/7 against Nova and showed some passing skills. There’s a long line of players who parlayed tournament success into a draft pick.
Here’s a quote from an SI article today that interviewed a GM and scout
GM’s opinion: “It definitely helps to be a winner going into the draft. Those players, it gives them a confidence. The interviews always go better, the interactions go better, when you’re dealing with a kid who has been through a deep tournament run. It doesn’t mean you run out and draft the guy, but it helps his case…"
As for the combine, there’s the 5 on 5, but also lane agility, 3/4 sprint, and leaping that he could improve on. He may not, but he’s probably been doing workouts all year to help in those areas. He’s also likely to ace the interviews.
I mean, I don’t think he’s going top 10 or anything, but top 40 is quite close to where he was projected before the F4 (mid 40s). And I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone use a late first rounder on him.
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A few things I’d like to see this offseason/will determine a lot next year:
-can X develop a more consistent jumper. I’m not talking about shooting off the dribble, even, just being more consistent on spot-up 3s and at the line. He finished at 29%, but made 7 of his last 46. If he could even be a 33% shooter on spot up 3s, it would be enormous.
-can Brooks and/or DeJulius step up in the backcourt. Wright went out of his way to say Brooks was going to be a very good players for us, and he knows a thing or two about guards. DeJulius showed a lot in HS. Can one be a really plus 3rd backcourt guy or even supplant X at times, especially on days we need shooting?
-same with Matthews, assuming he stays. Finished 32% from 3 but went 4-19 in the tourney. An NCAA tourney Matthews who shoots 36% from 3 is a very good player.
-can Poole make the leap?
-can Teske be a consistent 25 minute guy who makes a difference on D and ups his usage to finish at the rim or with jumpers?
-can one of Livers/Johns/Castleton be a viable alternative at center, small ball or not?
-can Iggy be a scorer at the college level?
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IMO Poole is the most important player next year. Given who most likely starts, they’re going to need his offense. They’re going to badly need a playmaker who can be a threat off the bounce too. He has all the tools to do it.
If Poole takes a Levert or Stauskas leap, I think they have another great shot at a Final Four run.
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This post and one of your tweets seems like you are pretty definitive on Moe. Do you have any inside knowledge of the situation or heard rumblings to suggest this or is it firmly just a hunch. You are usually much better about hedging unless you know something
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If this was Mo’s sophmore year I would think he would definitely leave. Seems like a top 40 draft pick to me with zero chance of going undrafted. However, he might stay, imo, because he is so close to getting a degree and he will have another chance to get a national championship next year if he stays. I mean, Mo has a chance to get his jersey retired if he stays, dominates, and gets a national championship, imo…I also think he has not maxed out his draft stock. He improved in all areas from last year, which is remarkable. I think it is possible he turns himself into a top 25-30 pick if he dominates and expands his game. (Anybody else shockingly impressed with his passing lately?)
So proud of this team and excited to see who makes the leap from the returning players. Maybe Ibi Watson will make a DJ Wilson-like sophomore-junior year improvement.
Have a hard time seeing Wagner back. Really feel like he’s maximized his draft stock at this point by making the improvements they asked of him last year at the draft combine. The remainder of his limitations will always be there, and he will be a year older next year. Of course, if he wants to come back for non-basketball reasons, I wouldn’t complain!
With next year’s weak class, he could potentially improve minimally and still improve his draft position. That’s a gamble though.
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