Observations After 3 Games

Michigan Basketball
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Caveats apply based on small sample size, but here are my thoughts and observations after 1 week:

Donnal - let’s face it, our interior defense isn’t stopping anyone in the B10 once the entry pass gets to the post player, and Mark is no exception to that. He simply cedes position to easy and fails to jump vertically to contest the shot. Mark has done a pretty good job of being in good position when rotating on PnR defense, forcing a few charges and picking up a few steals. Offensively, he not a post threat at all, but seems to do a decent job of keeping the ball high when trying to finish. Wish we could see a bit more pick and pop action with Mark. Still seems very tentative and not all that confident on either end of the court. JB really needs to work with Mark on setting screens, he doesn’t make himself wide or set a screen with a solid base

Chatman - has been rough for Kam in the early going. Was downright awful on defense vs Hillsdale, had a few lapses against Bucknell, notably not getting proper depth during the second half that yielded an easy dunk. Overall, much better though. If Im JB im telling Kam just stick to the basics, keep yourself between the opposition and the basket. Kam is so far behind on D right now that things need to be very simple for him. Does seem to be a decent on ball defender though that uses his length to deflect passes. Offensively, his shots aren’t falling, but that hasn’t deterred him from taking shots. I like that, it signals to me that he has confidence. His passing is a huge attribute because Kam doesn’t need to score to have a positive impact for us. One thing I’d like to see him do is finish much stronger, he’s missing a lot of bunnies going up soft. Kam is getting to the rim relatively easy, just needs to finish. Rebounding hasn’t been as good as I’d like, but not bad either.

Irvin - noticeable improvement in terms of strength, has finished through contact a few times. No way he could’ve done that last year. Better vertical as well, he is finishing over and through defenders at the same time if that makes sense. Defensively, Zak is still suspect as a one on one defender, he just struggles with lateral movement (see Bucknell’s first basket), but he has improved as a team defender in terms of making quicker rotations and not getting lost on screens. Still not an ideal 4, but he does hold position against post players a bit better than last year. Offensively, his skillset really hasn’t improved to be honest, he’s still just a catch and shoot player. He’s lost the ball several times trying to dribble both in the half court and transition. Overall, he’s pretty much the same player as last year with more volume and better defense. He is pretty much freshman THJ in terms of skill, but he will look better because he has 2 players to create looks for him. Better D than freshman THJ though

Levert - looks great to me, shot wasn’t falling tonight (took a lot of off balance shots), but he is getting to the rim at will and making his teammates better off PnR passes. Still struggling with the midrange jumper though. Caris is only an average on ball defender, but he’s great at jumping the passing lanes and creating TOs. Less space cadet moments on D where he gets lost on screens.
He is the de facto PG in the half court. Think he will have a huge year.

Walton - wow…his physical transformation is really something. That kid is lightning fast on the break and is visibly stronger, he’s been absorbing and finishing through contact with no problem. His decision making has greatly improved, hasn’t forced much of anything, he looks to be in total control out there. Has made a few nice passes off PnR as well. He is a one man fast break with his combination of speed, handle, shiftiness, and verticality. He is special in transition. I think he is the best rebounding player in college at that size. That quality can’t be understated given our issues in the frontcourt. Defensively, he is our best one on one defender, has really moved his feet well thus far. I know Levert gets all the hype, but I honestly think Walton is our best 2 way player, and might be our most important player.

Bench:

Doyle - same defensive issues as Donnal, can’t stop post players from scoring once they get the ball on the block. Offensively, he is really struggling to get proper position in order to handle an entry pass. Much more assertive than Donnal when going up around the rim, he’s not afraid to use his body. This isn’t going to be a great year for Ricky, but there is some potential there down the road. Does set a screen better than anyone on the roster

Wilson - offensively he is very raw, doesn’t really do anything well to be honest. Same problem as Kam in terms of finishing soft. His jumpshot isn’t very pretty either. Offensively, we’re not going to get much from DJ this year. However, I have been VERY impressed with Wilson on pick n roll D, DJ hedges and recovers much better than any other big on the roster. His lateral movement has been impressive (I was wrong), but his straight line speed leaves a lot to be desired (weird). His primary attribute this year is help side D and blocking shots.

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I think calling Irvin "freshman THJ" is a bit harsh. I see where you're coming from, but Irvin is clearly bigger, stronger, and a better shooter

Guess you must have missed the part where I said freshman THJ in terms of skill. I don’t think Irvin is a better shooter than freshman THJ either, just gets cleaner looks.

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The vets look good while the feshman look really rough so far. They will have to grow up fast for this team to do much in March.

In other news Horford had 17/7 for Florida in a loss to Miami. He sure would look good in a Michigan uniform thus allowing Doyle or Wilson to redshirt. Grrrr.

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Just dedicated a post to Horford, perhaps there was some merit that he wasn’t getting enough looks

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I think calling Irvin “freshman THJ” is a bit harsh. I see where you’re coming from, but Irvin is clearly bigger, stronger, and a better shooter

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Spike - he brings what he always does. Pleasant surprise has been jumping the passing lanes for TOs.

MAAR - seems lost in the shuffle, simply can’t shoot well enough to get minutes right now. Reminds me of Tim Frazier at PSU. Think there is a LOT of potential down the road for him.

Dawkins - really not a large enough sample to really give an opinion

Max - I told you so!

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Just dedicated a post to Horford, perhaps there was some merit that he wasn't getting enough looks

I still don’t buy that line. Had he stayed at Michigan his playing time and looks would have gone way up. I think his handlers just got in the way.

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Well, you may not buy it, but playing time and looks are 2 different things. There was nothing in the history with Horford to suggest he would get sufficient touches either in the post or on the perimeter. Only time will tell, but as of right now, it seems as if JB could’ve used Horford in a more productive manner.

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Walton has been so aggressive and he’s gotten so quick. I may be off base with this but he looks a little like D Wade the way he absorbs contact at that size going to the rim.

LeVert is as good as advertised. He is so smooth on the offensive end, making much better decisions than last year.

To my much less sophisticated eye I think the double Ds are a little better on offensive end than you are saying. I think Doyle has had some really nice finishes. Obviously not great, but pretty decent at times.

Spike’s passing has gotten even better it seems, and his vision is so good. That over the shoulder pass over two Bucknell players driving baseline was so pretty.

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Doyle is really struggling with core strength, he seems to get easily knocked off his spot in the post, which is why he can’t catch the post entry pass. Also lacks the lower body explosion to get sufficient elevation to finish over a defender. Doyle did have a nice hook, but in no way do I think he is going to be a post threat this year. His points will come off PnR drop offs and offensive rebounds. Doyle seems to have really nice chemistry with Caris, will be something to watch for.

Donnal - simply isn’t a post player in any regard. He runs the floor pretty well, and can stretch the D, but he simply hasn’t been given enough opportunity on the pick and pop to really have an opinion either way. Donnal lacks confidence and assertiveness in my opinion. I actually think he has more tools than Doyle, but lacks the mindset.

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Dylan - I know you’ve done transition points per shot/shooting % in the past. Is it possible for you to provide transition metrics for individual players for points produced per transition possession that encompasses assists and points…sort of a cumulative production metric? Would love to also have a metric that captures the rebounder that starts the transition possession.

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Well, you may not buy it, but playing time and looks are 2 different things. There was nothing in the history with Horford to suggest he would get sufficient touches either in the post or on the perimeter. Only time will tell, but as of right now, it seems as if JB could've used Horford in a more productive manner.

Max Beifeldt just scored 18 points in this offense. Max Beifeldt.

Also, you don’t think Irvin is a better shooter than freshman THJr?!? Say what? Irvin shot over 42% from 3 last year. THJr never hit 40% in any season.

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Max scored 18 points, but Max was also given sufficient looks. You have to shoot in order to score, and in order to shoot, you need looks.

I don’t think Irvin is a better shooter than THJ as a freshman. Much different when you are the third option on the scouting report and you have creators to give you open looks. THJ was the primary/2nd option as a freshman, he didn’t have anywhere near the talent surrounding him that year. His looks where nowhere near as clean. Irvin had one job last year, catch and shoot, THJ would run pick and roll on a regular basis in the 2nd half of his freshman year, his responsibilities to the team were far greater than Irvin last year.

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The team has played 3 games against crap competition I take next to nothing out of it except the 5 position is a work in progress and LeVert, Irvin, and Walton are going to be really tough for any team to match up with. I don’t take alot out of these non conference games against bad teams because Beilein always plays really odd lineup combinations too get everybody some run, unlike some coaches he isn’t actively trying to run up the score on bad teams. Lot of things we saw the 2 point guard look and Max playing the 5 exclusively won’t happen against better competition, because they can’t get away with that stuff. You live with the mistakes Chatman, Donnal, and Wilson make as young players because their upside is significantly higher then some of those other guys. The 2 point guard look is not going to work against good teams or even well coaches teams because Spike isn’t scoring and we become a liability defensively on the other end way to small on the perimeter. Leave the starting lineup as is, in fact I would play Wilson, Chatman, and Donnal even more to allow them to get out all the kinks and work through their growing pains. Spike and Biefeldt are good options to have as instant offense off the bench, the biefeldt development might be huge going forward if they can find ways to give him minutes at the 4 or the 5 because he can play either. I would still like DJ and Donnal to get the most minutes at the 5, both are better defense players/more athletic then Doyle and provide actual shot blocking. I can live with the inconsistencies both bring offensively because we really don’t need them to score at a high level. Doyle can’t get off the ground well enough right now defensively to deter shots, another year in the SC program improving his explosiveness will help him tremendously. He is big and holds his ground decently in the post, but I think he needs the most work defensively out of the 5’s. I would play DJ, Donnal, and Max(if he continue to score and play defense/rebound like he did). Doyle and Rakhman need the most work out the freshman, both are very talented though.

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Well, you may not buy it, but playing time and looks are 2 different things. There was nothing in the history with Horford to suggest he would get sufficient touches either in the post or on the perimeter. Only time will tell, but as of right now, it seems as if JB could've used Horford in a more productive manner.

First time poster, long time lurker (Dylan, Sane, LALaw, etc. know me from other boards).

If he’d “used Horford in a more productive manner,” would we have been higher than #1 in offensive efficiency in each of the last two seasons? Who would he have taken those touches/shots from?

If you want to say that Jon will thrive in a different system, that’s fine, though I’d like to see more than a two game body of work, one of which came in an upset home loss–after all, if we’re going based on small sample size, Max Bielfeldt is an All-American. As far as Beilein using him in a more productive manner from the standpoint of Michigan’s success over the last two seasons, no–I can’t think of a single reason to have played Jon more than Mitch or JMo, or have taken shots/looks from our other guys. And as far as the notion that he wouldn’t have gotten shots/looks this year, well, Jon took 6 3s last night, which is something Beilein has always wanted his bigs to be able to do (see, e.g., Max last night), and our bigs have, in the first two games, taken 26 shots in just over 40 mpg (D.J. played a few minutes at the 4), whereas Jon has taken 14 (almost 60% of which have been 3s) in 30.5 mpgs. He’s actually taking less shots per minute than Michigan’s bigs. Indeed, he’s barely taking more shots per minute than he did last year at Michigan–this year, .23, last year, .22. He’s just making them.

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Horford shot 39% outside of 5 feet last year (42 att), 38% outside of 10 feet (21 att), 17% outside of 15 feet (6 att)…

This year he’s 6-of-11 from outside of 15 feet…

Not sure what to make of it except maybe he just needed a new change of scenery and it’s best for everyone. I still feel like Horford really struggled defensively down the stretch last season and things started to deteriorate from there.

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Never said Jon will thrive, appartently you missed my “perhaps” comment. While he’s may be taking less shots per minute, that metric is tainted, because he’s playing much more at UF. So, to sum this, up, you need shots to score, and you need minutes to get shots. For whatever reason, he just didn’t feel like he was getting his fair shake under JB. Only time will tell if he was under-utlized at UM.

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Horford shot 39% outside of 5 feet last year (42 att), 38% outside of 10 feet (21 att), 17% outside of 15 feet (6 att)...

This year he’s 6-of-11 from outside of 15 feet…

Not sure what to make of it except maybe he just needed a new change of scenery and it’s best for everyone. I still feel like Horford really struggled defensively down the stretch last season and things started to deteriorate from there.

The UK game in particular, there were points in the game where he just flat out refused to jump for rebounds…it was mindboggling

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I think it’s fair to say that Jon never made jumpers at Michigan. He took a fair amount, but was never that close. Certainly not consistently enough to ever have the green light.

Did he need more confidence given to him? Maybe, but Michigan had players that were better and more reliable and that frustrated him.

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After the development of our young bigs, I thought the most important factor in our success this year (maybe more important) was whether Walton would develop into the kind of point guard who could take over a game and dominate offensively. Based on early showing, it seems that he might just be that guy. He’s been fast and aggressive, very good on penetration, though he hasn’t shown a lot in the outside game lately. Combined with LeVert and Irvin, I don’t see anyone in the Big Ten that is clearly better at the 1-3. That will keep us in just about every game, even given our expected weakness in interior defense.

Not quite ready to go hog wild for Beilfeldt yet, but if he continues to show consistent production, it will be interesting to see if Beilein gets him out there in place of Chatman sometimes, as essentially a stretch 4, along with one of our other bigs. Maybe better offensive production and rebounding, but a dropoff in ballhandling and overall athleticism, including perimeter defense.

Was hoping to see more of a contibution from Dawkins in the easy early games, but he seems to have a lot of catching up to do. Nevertheless, I see potential in all of our freshmen.