Northwestern at Michigan Discussion Thread


7 p.m. tonight, FS1.


Nice preview. Still getting used to these Monday games. Northwestern seems to be putting it together a bit, but hopefully we come out fired up after last year.

One big key - no TOs. Northwestern has real trouble getting anything going on offense, and giving them live ball TOs especially just lets them off the hook. They’ve done a pretty good job of forcing TOs this year, and Michigan has had some games where they turn the ball over a bunch early.

Another - no offensive rebounds for Northwestern. See point 1 re Northwestern’s offense.

No big surprise, but do those things and Michigan should be fine.


This game has had me nervous all year kinda. They are more talented than their record. Really hope they don’t wake up against us.


I think all 4 remaining home games are must wins. “If” the goal is to be a top 4 seed in the BTT and a top 6 seed in the NCAA then you have to get the 4 remaining home games. Maybe I am being unrealistic.

One point I haven’t heard many people talk about is Billy Donlon going from Michigan to NW in the off season. I don’t think it hurts NW at all going into this game having Donlon on their sidelines. I’m not saying it will have a huge impact, but may be something that has a minor one.


That and more. Nebraska is a half game ahead of us for 4th in the Big Ten, they have the tiebreaker, they have an easier remaining schedule, and they’re playing better than us right now. We would probably need at least a 6-2 finish to end up ahead of them, and that’s only if they finish 4-3, which doesn’t look likely. More probably we will need to finish 7-1 to get 4th place.


The thing about the tiebreaker with Nebraska is that either way whether NEB ends up 4 and Michigan 5 or vice versa, we are most likely looking at a Friday game where Nebraska needs to beat Michigan again to make the NCAAs.


I would say 4-3 is Nebraska’s most likely outcome. @Ill, @Wisc, @Minn, vs. UMD, vs. PSU are all pretty much tossups.
We have 3 likely wins (vs. NW, vs. Minn, vs. Iowa), two should wins (@NW, @Wisc), and 3 tossups (vs. OSU, @PSU, @UMD)

But hey even if they end up ahead of us it’s not the end of the world as they only faced MSU, OSU, and Purdue once so that. And like Dylan said we’re going to play them in the 4 vs 5 matchup regardless.


Funny thing about Donlon going from UM to NW. This year, NW’s defense is rated worse and UM’s is better.


What’s the majority-accepted reasoning for NW’s struggles this year? They brought back 4/5 starters and 80% of their minutes played. Their defense (insert guru Billy Donlon lol) went from ranked 32nd best on kenpom to 95th. They were 10-8 in a much stronger big ten last season and they’re 4-5 this year. I’m confused.


I’d like a similar answer, too. I don’t quite get it. They’re still an experienced team, which scares me. I’m always scared of every game around this time of year.


Simple answer: They overachieved last year


Still seems like they have some pretty decent players and they’re underachieving this year, no?


Eh, they’re pretty much even in kenpom’s close game luck measurement thing.


I didn’t mean they were unlucky. Meant that some guys on that roster seem like they aren’t playing up to their ability this year?


So for the last four years whenever I looked at Northwestern’s profile I would always get to Sanjay Lumpkin’s name and wonder 1) whether he was related to Tom Bombadil’s pony, and 2) why he was always in the starting lineup but barely accumulated any offensive statistics. The answer to 1 may never be known, but I think the answer to 2 is “He was pretty good on defense.” Since he’s the only guy from last year’s team who is gone, his absence has to be the default explanation for why their defense got worse.


I’m just befuddled by Duncan at this point. He’s playing great D today and has been great in every aspect besides shooting. I feel for him that he’s not having the senior year he imagined.


Still seven-eight games left in the regular season. Beilein believes.


Not much said between Coach Beilein and Donlon. I’d like to know Beilein’s true thoughts. I don’t think he can be to happy about Donlon make a lateral move in conference.


[quote=“JJ3, post:18, topic:3456, full:true”]
Not much said between Coach Beilein and Donlon. I’d like to know Beilein’s true thoughts. I don’t think he can be to happy about Donlon make a lateral move in conference.

Who knows what was said behind closed doors or at shoot around, but that did seem a bit less cordial than I would have thought.


PS kudos to Brooks for putting in a good shift. I thought he deserved more time. He was +10 in 5 minutes. He definitely has an advanced grasp of Beilein’s system considering his experience level. The offense really does look smoother when he’s out there. Should be an interesting competition next year.