It’s that time again!
Franz Wagner has come down a little bit (which was inevitable) - shooting 2/17 from three over his last four games. He has had a few promising flashes in other aspects of the game - putting up two straight 4-assist games, and even had 6 steals in his last showing. I absorbed via podcast that of non-centers averaging 30+ minutes, Franz has attempted the fewest percentages of his shots between 11 feet and the three point arc - in other words, his shot profile is extremely stat-friendly - the only jumpers he’s taking are threes (36% on the season as of now), and he’s effective at floater range (42% of 43 attempts), and shooting 69% at the rim. As expected, the shooting is a question mark, and is likely his swing skill. We’ll see how it goes!
His brother Mo is currently at the back of the rotation (lowest minutes per game of guys playing regularly, with 11 per game). The good news is that he has shot 6/12 on threes since our last update, and that, like his brother, is the thing he’s going to be asked to do that he’s struggled with as a pro. His season three point mark (35.5%) is being held up by a 4/6 night against Detroit (that’s also sustaining the 6/12 mentioned above), so most nights he’s struggled, and it seems that one of every three appearances, he can’t control his fouling (5 in 17 minutes, 3 in 9 since last update). My suspicion is that barring additional injuries, Mo is going to find his way out of the rotation when/if Jonathan Isaac ever plays basketball again. Worth noting that threes account for 73% of his shots right now - when he was fitfully effective in Washington, he was actually a very good offensive player in the paint and off cuts.
Another member of the Magic waiting for their status to change based on Isaac’s return, in my opinion, is Ignas Brazdeikis. As a two-way with the service clock ticking, and a few guys waiting to return from injury, it will be interesting to see what his status is when his NBA clock expires on his deal. Not much to say on performance - he’s played 15 minutes since two weeks ago, but while he was brutally cold to start, he’s at least seen 4 of 8 (2 of 4 on threes) shots go down in that timeframe.
There really is no in-between with Jordan Poole. When last we checked, he was 41% from the floor and 26% from 3, and while his two point scoring/foul drawing was going well, his three point shooting was holding him back. Since then, the season marks have climbed to 44%/32% and he’s up to 17 points a game, but how he’s done that is hardly consistent. He had a torrid 3 game stretch (31 on 21 shots, 26 on 15 shots, 25 on 13 shots, with the latter really being dependent on 9 free throws), and followed that up with 30 points on 34 shots over his past two games. I think this basic pattern is what we’re going to see from him this year - some supernova games followed by some total clunkers (really, it’s how last year went too). As before, his scoring inside the arc is really effective, up from 55% to 57% - where he has a nice floater range (42%+) and an absurd 80% at the rim (last year was 76%, still absolutely nuts for a guard). He is flashing a bit more play-making (climbing assist rates), and is being pretty daring defensively - his steal rate has doubled, but observationally, he’s also increased his rate of “jumping the passing lane and coming up with air”. Jordan’s gonna be a pro, for a long time. I think we’re still figuring out if he’s a third guard or a possible star.
Caris Levert, it should be shocking to nobody, is hurt again. He’s missed the past 2 games with a sore back - the injury that delayed his start to the season and had given some ominous news (later diavowed) when initially announced. Caris has put up numbers (17/4/3 in 26 minutes) but I think his game is getting stretched to a point that’s not particularly constructive for him or the team. He’s not shooting well (actually, quite poorly - 39%/21%) which has been an issue broadly across his career, and his usage is absolutely massive - 34%. Quite simply - I don’t think Caris is a James Harden-on-the-Rockets offensive talent, and I think this his usage levels needs to start reflecting that fact. Domantas Sabonis has seen his shot attempts dwindle in the 5 games Caris played (he’s averaging 10 ppg less with Caris than without him on similar shooting) - and he’s a more effecient scorer. Caris’s assist/to ratio (roughly 4/1) is sparkling, in his favor. The issue here is that Caris has spend his entire career slowly rounding back to form after injury, playing well for a week, then missing months at a time. It’s hard to know what he is without the injuries, and increasingly likely that we’ll never get to find out.
Trey Burke is out of “the protocol” and played 1 minute and did nothing.
I really struggle every two weeks to say something about Tim Hardaway Jr.. He’s continued to shoot roughly what you’d expect (season marks 42%/39%) and his rate stats are pretty similar to what they’ve been since coming to Dallas. He has been more 3-point focused than in years past, and his usage has actually dropped 4 points despite his assist rate climbing. I saw one game of his, and this team does seem to do 2 things - Doncic/Brunson drive or a Kristaps high post. In other words - Tim is standing behind the arc.
Duncan Robinson is mired in the worst slump of his career - 32%/31% from the floor. He has started to lose some time to Herro, who has had a bonkers start to the year. Obviously, the shooting needs to improve, because it’s why he’s on the floor. I have to assume it will.