After the list trimmed significantly last week, two of three drops have returned (wherefore art thou, GR3?)!. That’s good news. The early returns on the twin Mag…Magii?..are slim at this point, but we’ll take a look at them and the always difficult to parse Caris Levert.
I’m going to take Ignas Brazdeikis and Mo Wagner in one piece here, to avoid repeating myself. Both are relatively recent signees in Orlando, and currently the team is only committed to both through season’s end (better than a 10-day). Ignas has only played a single game, while Mo has played two. There are a few things to note about the general current ecosystem in Orlando prior to talking about what they’ve done. First, the organizational priority at the moment is to lose basketball games and maximizing this year’s draft position. I’m a firm believer that players (and probably coaches) don’t tank, but the front office can certainly lean into the process. I make this conclusion because the Magic traded their two best players (Vucevic, Fournier) for an assortment of highly-paid but worthless players (Otto Porter, Gary Harris) and young second-draft types (RJ Hampton, Wendell Carter), and promptly coincidentally had all their recognizable NBA players come down with varying levels of “soreness” that has forced them out of the lineup. To a degree, Mo and Iggy are here because the Magic have to show up to games, and in order to do that, need players to play them - but not guys that will win too many games. It’s still a good audition for these two, and an opportunity to show they belong on an NBA floor (an open question for both as of now).
In his one game, Ignas was given 31 minutes, and scored 14 points in a tank-a-thon loss (ie, they won) against the similarly tanking Pistons. I’m not entirely positive what meaningful data we get from a late-season matchup between two teams wishing they lose, but Ignas put the ball in the hoop at a reasonable rate (8 shot attempts), so there’s that.
Mo has been there a bit longer, and has interestingly been deployed as a power forward next to either Wendell Carter and Mo Bamba. Now, I’m not positive how much of this is a belief that he can play this position, and how much is the aforementioned tank, but it’s interesting. Mo had a sterling performance in a 1 point win over the still-competing Grizzlies (frustrating, I’m sure, the Orlando brass), but the aggregate results in his 4 games are still kind of poor - in roughly 28 minutes per game, he’s averaged 10 points and 4.5 rebounds, and 3 fouls on 35% shooting (33% from 3). Again - if this is how he’s going to score, he’s not an NBA player because he’s not going to get through on his defense, especially as a 4.
Jordan Poole has played roughly half his games since our last update against team attempting to win, and half against teams who are, at least, ambivalent. Last time, he was 4 weeks past his red-hot comeback, and had been mired in a long-term slump. In the last two weeks, he’s shot 36% from the floor, and 37% from 3. Now - it’s not quite as bad as that seems. Over half his shots are from 3, which distorts his over FG% down (his 3 point shooting is totally fine), and he’s managed a trip or two to the line every game, where he shoots rather well - so his true shooting has hovered during this stretch around “below average” rather than “terrible”. Additionally, he continues to flash some ability as a passer, and plays with the ball in his hands on the second unit. His career has stabilized a bit, and will likely start next year in the GS rotation, but we’re still on precarious ground.
DJ Wilson is continuing to play, and has put up two of his better career games in the past 2 weeks, nestled among some blanks. We noted his 25 point, 8 board, 4 assist game against Denver a few days ago, but two games later, he put up a strong 15/12 on 11 shots against Milwaukee. As you can tell, the shooting that yielded these performances was better than what we’ve generally seen from him, and rebounding continues to be a strength. At the risk of repeating myself - he’s getting minutes on a team with no interesting in winning, and his employment next year, like everyone else we’ve discussed so far, is not a given.
In the 7 games since the last update, Caris Levert is scoring nearly 26 points a game on nearly 20 shots (capped by 36 against a fully staffed Nets team)…a respectable efficiency, especially given the volume. He’s also averaging 4.5 boards and nearly 5 assists (1.5 turnovers) in the span. Obviously, this is pretty good. It’s hard to tell much this is driving quality team performance, since he’s their primary engine right now - while they’re 4-3 in the last 7, those 4 wins were over OKC (twice), Orlando, and Detroit - three teams actively trying to lose. Caris has managed to shoot adequately from 3 (36%), but most of his work at this point continues to come by rather great production within the arc, and frequently, at the free-throw stripe. He’s shooting nearly 55% on twos as a Pacer, and over 60% of those aren’t assisted - these are his own creation. Caris is in an odd spot - he’s older than many think (nearly 27, due to missing basically his rookie year, playing 4 years in college, and missing so much time annually), and is probably what he is from a skill development standpoint, while at an age most would classify as his athletic peak. All that would suggest his role is “usage eater on a mediocre team, 3rd guard on a good one”. The wrinkle here is that Caris has spent SO much of his career returning from injury and illness, that he’s very rarely been completely at the top of his game - so while “this” is what he is, it’s sort of hard to pin down what “this” is. I feel relatively comfortable saying he’s probably not the lead guard of a playoff team, but I can’t completely discount the possibility. Each ensuing update for him has been a bit more positive - we’ll see if he can keep building.
A brief absence from Luka Doncic re-opened the door for Trey Burke, who had spent the better part of a month collecting DNP’s, and he made the most of it - he scored 14 points in 26 minutes a game over 3 contests, and shot adequately doing it (really, very well twice, and very poorly once). Since Luka’s return, he’s remained in the rotation, albeit in reduced minutes, and has continued his respectable performance as a bench scorer. He is, as is Rick Carlisle’s wont and infatuation with tiny PG’s, basically a tiny SG right now, and plays off ball.
Tim Hardaway has some bad days (2 of 10, 2 of 13) and some good ones (13 of 23, 7 of 12) since our last update, and the net is…pretty much what we’d expect , with a little downturn in overall shooting (41%, 34.5%) covered by additional trips to the line. Hardaway’s shooting has been a little worse over the past 15 games or so, and he did just miss a game (he’s been their one constant this year, really) with some ankle soreness - so we’ll keep an eye on this.
Duncan Robinson shot 37% from 3 since our last update, and is over 40% for the year. Overall, this year isn’t quite as good as last, which likely is at least partially a result of him being a known quantity. Regardless, as long as he can keep shooting like this on the volume and difficulty of shots he takes, he’s fine.