Michigan-CMU Post-Game Thoughts


A little context for the expected early-season–though mid-season form–UMhoops panic:

Kentucky just beat East Tennessee state (124 on Kenpom, but that’s probably inflated just by playing Kentucky, no?) by only 17, at home.

Duke beat Southern (331 in kenpom, before they played Duke) by only 17, at home.

Obviously not saying Michigan is anywhere near as good as those teams, and Im not saying there isn’t reason for some concerns regarding Michigan, just pointing out that not every good team destroys their cupcakes.


As a heads up, East Tennessee’s ranking wouldn’t be inflated from playing Kentucky. Preseason projections are a significant part of the formula right now, so one game isn’t going to make a huge difference.


On an inversely-related note: Purdue is going to crush Fairfield (203 kenpom) by 40ish. Purdue could be a real contender for the B1G, with their combination of talent and seniority/experience. Haas, Edwards, Thompson, and Matthias have all been running this system for 4 years now, and Carsen Edwards is the kind of ball-dominant scoring guard that they haven’t had since, who, E’Twuan Moore?


Looooove Carson Edwards. Purdue is really good


No, not every good team destroys ALL of their cupcakes, but it does inspire a little more confidence if they have an easy time with at least some of them, or beat at least one quality opponent (as both Duke and Kentucky have done). All three of our cupcake opponents have taken us well into the second half before we managed to finally put some space between us and them.

Yes, they still count as wins just as much as any other, but the point being raised is how that portends for future games against stronger opponents.


A. You can’t compare our program to Duke and Kentucky.

B. What quality opponent has Kentucky beaten?

C. Let’s see what happens this week. Weird to keep projecting about things that haven’t happened. If they can go 2-1 this week I’ll be pleased


Well, it would be even weirder to project about things that HAVE happened, don’t you agree?

Seriously, what is the problem some people here have with predicting the outcome of future games, or the outcome of a season? That’s what happens on sites like this. That’s one of the main things we do. No, of course, nobody KNOWS what’s going to happen, but when has that ever been the point? We predict, we forecast, we speculate about what’s likely and what’s not, and we disagree, because it’s fun, and it’s human nature. If it bothers you to read predictions that aren’t as rosy as what you’d like, sorry. Some people prefer realism over homerism to the point of silliness. Sure, when I was 10 years old, I expected Michigan to win every time, in every sport. But I learned a long time ago that’s not how the world works.


I also learned a long time ago that just because Michigan doesn’t look like a world beater one game, doesn’t mean they will lose to every good team they play the rest of the season. So there is no reason to prematurely panic or complain about something that hasn’t happened. We should have a clearer picture of things after this week