Here’s a question I’ve been trying to answer… Look at Doyle, Chatman, Dawkins … individually what was their ceiling in the program over the next two years?
1 Like
I agree with that. I mean, sure, if Dawkins could really improve his defense, and work on his handle, he could be a contributor on a really good team. And if Chatman could really improve his three point shot, and improve his handle, he too could contribute on a good team.
But it’s probably wiser to just find players who don’t need as much individual improvement, so when they’re put in spots to be successful, they have the tools to do it.
I think the problem is, how can he score consistently at this level? He can’t shoot the three, he can’t really do much off the dribble, and on occasion he would try to use his size and post up a little, but I remember him getting some shots blocked doing that, too. I wish him luck, too - he showed signs, every once in awhile, of being a good player, but he was really inconsistent.
Good point - I think we knew what we were getting the next 2 years from Doyle and Dawkins, which is why we didn’t see much outcry when they announced. With Chatman, we saw a few glimpses of his talent, and were still holding out hope that he was just scratching the surface. But in reality, none of the 3 were going to be more than 15 minute guys if the rest of the roster construction fills out like we hope.
1 Like
No, it doesn’t. If you find another 2017 kid who is an immediate contributor, that’s probably a better use for the scholarship for sure.
I don’t think Kam was guaranteed anything at all this coming year. In fact, that was likely made very clear to him, which precipitated his decision.
Doyle not so much. I saw Kam as a solid role player. Now Aubrey is where I differ from everyone. Imo he could be a very dangerous scorer like he showed glimpses of his freshman year. His transfer hurt me the most because although his d was bad he could have been a very good scorer for us especially his senior year. I actually think he is going to do very well for his father and surprise.
One minute we are calling the 2014 class a D grade bust and the next minute we are all nervous that these same players are leaving the program and opening up spots for potentially better players.
I am surprised and sorry to see Cam go. I had high hopes for his last two years.
You forgot about Poole.
I feel pretty confident we’ll be starting a true freshman at the four in 2017, unless somehow Wagner can play it, which isn’t entirely out the question.
I’d say it looks like this, assuming we add Cain, which is not a sure thing by any means of course:
PG: Simpson, 2017 recruit
SG: MAAR, Poole
SF: Robinson, Cain, Watson
PF: 2017 recruit, Wilson
C: Wagner, Davis/Teske
I’m assuming Donnal may not return, but that’s a 50/50 proposition as he could.
I think Doyle has just about reached his ceiling and was likely to be passed (for good) by Moe and Donnal next year – his loss will be negligible, imo. I think Dawkins was already a marksman from three off the bench, whom would have a role on any team, but may not be much more. You could see him possibly improving his awareness in cutting off the ball, rebounding, and even a slight defensive improvement to where he was a real plus off the bench the next two seasons, but no more than that. Kam is the most challenging for me. I think as an upperclassman, at worst, he could be a 10ish mpg role player. That would likely be his role next year, with the potential for something more. I think he isn’t a good enough shooter or dribbler to be a starter, but he is a very good passer and would thrive more with the ball in his hands. Unfortunately, that was likely never going to happen at Michigan, and definitely not next season. I think he showed more flashes at the end of last year, and I even was hoping for him to play more than Aubrey down the stretch. You could argue that he would start his senior year at the 4 after Zak leaves, but it is hard to say. I think the Dawkins and Chatman transfers will really hurt depth for next year unless we hit on the transfer market. I don’t think Beilein “wanted” either guy to leave the program. At this point, we are relying completely on a low-ranked freshman and sparsely used DJ Wilson off the bench.
Re-read. I said Kam would be a solid role player. If anything this proves me right as three people have left leaving us Maar and Wilson who I said has to improve greatly to be serviceable. I believe my d- is looking pretty accurate.
I guess that depends there were a lot fans pumping the tires of Dawkins after last year. Was he destined to be a limited player, did people overrate his performance last year? Doyle had some decent games last year and this year seemed to be a waste due to illness/sleep apnea. I wanted Chatman to do well but he always looked awkward out there.
In regards to Dawkins/Doyle at the end of the day maybe this is what you get when you recruit under the radar kids. For Chatman some top recruits just bust or can’t excel at high D1 basketball.
It seems like it would not be a negative day for much of the fan base as they have been on Chatman’s back for two years. Did something else bad happen?
Well, the negative is not having any viable alternatives to replace Chatman or Spike at this point. While neither was going to contribute a ton, they were at least experienced depth. There is now a ton of stress on the remaining players to stay healthy and play well. That likely includes a true freshman ranked in the 200’s in Watson, and WIlson who has not done much of anything at Michigan to give us hope.
JB still has time to add a player or two, but it is a big ?? that he will be able to land anyone capable of improving the roster much this season.
RE: Talking about Alec Peters. Here’s this update:
I was having that problem last week, but now I see the whole chart, and I have Safari.
I would think Donnal would be more than a 50/50 proposition to stay now – we could have a 4 person '17 class and keep Donnal even with no more movement of any kind. But who knows, maybe we will add another '16 soon. Guess it could also depend on the development of younger bigs.
Fine, but why are you so nervous about these guys leaving then?
It depends on:
- If Mark develops/holds his starting spot/proves to be an above average bench 5
- Teske (more likely, IMO) or Davis prove to be more promising than a 5th year Mark
- How the 2016 and 2017 classes finish
It’s hard to imagine having 4 centers on the roster for 2 consecutive years, but Mark might end up being good enough to make Teske and Davis wait to back up Mo.
Any comment from JB yet? Is this the last transfer?
True, and also could depend on whether Wagner, Wilson, or Donnal (or the young guys) show any ability to play the 4.