If Caris comes back and everyone stays healthy (big if), then I am relatively comfortable with our situation at 1-4. I remain very concerned with the 5, though.
I think that seed is about right, barring serious injuries again. I know I was higher on this team (a few months back I predicted we were going to win the big ten this coming year)than a lot of you. I still stand by the fact that I think we are going to be very dangerous. I still think this team will be better suited to run and gun (many of you pointed out fairly that is not our style) but I can’t help but be very optimistic with that depth and what I think will be many dangerous shooters/offensive weapons.
As for Wilson I think he has a shot to be good too. Early in the year he was one of the freshman getting the most burn, as he should with our weaknesses up front. I don’t think they benched him for development reasons. I think Beilen saw things were going south and said why rush him back and waste a year of eligibility on a team who’s ceiling is sneaking in the tourney.
Also they will find time for Dawkins and MAAR, you can bet on that. They will be out there. I am thinking he will play small again and Dawkins will start with Irvin at the four. Spike first player off the bench with Kam and MAAR.
Red shirted* not benched.
As others have said, the team’s mascot could be the question mark. The only real “known” is Irvin. He should put up anywhere from 12-17 ppg, and let’s hope his rebounding numbers are at least 4.0.
Everyone else could have widely varying experiences. Walton very well could be able to really work his foot and be at 100%; we don’t know if LeVert is even on the roster; Chatman could be averaging 8-10 ppg by Valentine’s Day or could be averaging 8-10 MINUTES per game; Dawkins could be lighting it up from three, or he might not be getting a lot of minutes and Robinson may be lighting it up. Maybe Spike is playing 25 minutes per game and doing a lot of shooting and distributing. Every prediction runs into another variable. I have no clue how many games we’ll win–I’d put the spread at roughly 16 to something like 23-24. It’s hard to get a feel for what it will even be like to watch this team by January.
16 wins seems more than a wee bit pessimistic, considering we did that well without Walton and LeVert for half the season, Spike playing most of the season with a bad hip, no Wilson, Robinson or Wagner at all, and Doyle, Dawkins and MAAR as true freshmen. Even if LeVert leaves, all of those other situations will likely be improved, and the only other thing we lose is Beilfeldt. Even if Donnal and Chatman show zero improvement over last year, unless we get screwed by injuries again, 18-19 wins shouldn’t be too much to expect.
Well, to clarify, I was implying getting screwed over by injuries in my basement prediction, since it’s somewhat likely that if LeVert returns he or Walton could
re-aggravate their injuries, plus Spike playing after surgery. But you make some excellent points and have convinced me. Even with injuries, we’d probably pull out about 18 or 19, since many of our losses were close, and we could expect better. But I doubt we’ll be in that worst-case scenario anyway.
I think a 3 seed is our absolute ceiling assuming we return Levert and no other attrition/additions.........and I think that's pressing it a bit. Realistically, I think we're a 5-9 seed type of team. A few above averaage players, one good player, and a bunch of solid role players. Just not enough top flight talent to really contend for a championship in my opinion. Should be a bounce back season relatively speaking though.I think our team will have as much (if not more) talent than the 2014 National Champions.
I’m probably on board with the talent assessment here, but we’re a LONG ways away from being as mentally tough/physical as UCONN in 2014.
Physically, I agree. That is our Achilles heal. Mentally, I don’t know any team in the country that faced more adversity than our guys did last year. I also think that LeVert and Walton having to watch their team lose so many close games last year, from the sidelines, will help them mentally in 2015/2016.
SR Albecht, SR LeVert, JR Walton, JR Irvin… when is the last time a Michigan team had that much upperclassmen leadership?
I think a 3 seed is our absolute ceiling assuming we return Levert and no other attrition/additions.........and I think that's pressing it a bit. Realistically, I think we're a 5-9 seed type of team. A few above averaage players, one good player, and a bunch of solid role players. Just not enough top flight talent to really contend for a championship in my opinion. Should be a bounce back season relatively speaking though.I think our team will have as much (if not more) talent than the 2014 National Champions.
I’m probably on board with the talent assessment here, but we’re a LONG ways away from being as mentally tough/physical as UCONN in 2014.
Physically, I agree. That is our Achilles heal. Mentally, I don’t know any team in the country that faced more adversity than our guys did last year. I also think that LeVert and Walton having to watch their team lose so many close games last year, from the sidelines, will help them mentally in 2015/2016.
SR Albecht, SR LeVert, JR Walton, JR Irvin… when is the last time a Michigan team had that much upperclassmen leadership?
I’ve never though much of the experience = leadership contention. I always thought guys like Novak and Trey were great leaders even as underclassmen. Those guys were just naturally vocal and demonstrative. Don’t necessarily see those same qualities in the guys you mention above, but perhaps they will step up in that regard.
Guess I should’ve qualified the mental toughness statement - what I meant by that was we don’t have the mental toughness in relation to UCONN 2014 to play hard every single play (fighting through screens, boxing out, getting back in transition D, ETC.)…in my opinion that is as much mental as it is physical.