Introducing a new NCAA Tournament project

I didn’t know where to put these questions, @umhoops, so figured safest bet would be here:

  1. I noticed in the CBB Guide preview that it says UCLA is fantastic at contesting jump shots. We often attribute three-point shooting variance to luck (I think you said this on the latest pod too), but is there something to be said for how UCLA defended Bama’s 3s - especially knowing Bama would jack ‘em up - that made Bama struggle? Or is it easier to point to the free-throw struggles and assume they had a bad shooting night?

  2. Making it to the Elite 8 (and the Pac-12’s success) inflates UCLA’s efficiency metrics, however deservedly so. Based on the draw UCLA has had and its defensive shooting luck, however, I don’t buy for a second that program as KenPom’s 16th best. I was hoping to get a pre-tourney snapshot of the Michigan-UCLA matchup as I assume that the real UCLA belongs somewhere in the middle. But it looks like your Guide updates in real time. Do you (or does the Guide) have anything like that?

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Sort of one of the million dollar questions. I know NBA analytics-verse talks about this at least. I like to look at number of catch and shooter jumpers a team allows per game (almost more than 3PA/FGA at this point) to try to gauge.

UCLA comes up kind of right in the middle of a lot of metrics shooting wise for me.

I realize now that updating the previews as they go is sort of tricky for that given how much ratings and things changed with the Pac 12’s success. I also think this might be magnified by the lack of as many non-conference games this year.