Hey everybody–after yesterday’s win I found myself itching to start thinking about how we may match up against the current IU and MSU squads. I know that MSU has Rutgers in EL today, then has a layoff they must love before seeing us Saturday. How do these games look to you?
Had to create a new ID my password wasn’t working. I feel we have a better shot against Michigan at which may sound weird. Indiana matches up perfectly with us but then trumps us with Bryant over donnall. If we had Caris at a hundred percent plus the team was gelled and chemistry was good with Caris back then we could take both these teams. Indiana I feel is underrated and a sleeper final four team. Yogi is just so dangerous.i love Derek but I don’t think he can hang with yogi. Yogi is just more steady.
If we can win won of two ill be very happy. I’m scared we could get swept without a healthy Caris in the flow. It seems we have beaten every team we should and lost to every higher rated higher then us minus Maryland. No bad losses and only two good wins.its time to see what we can do. We must play better then some of these games where we were sloppy. I know we can do it. We need Duncan to get hot again. Also rahkman needs to be aggressive like yesterday and get to the rack. He really makes us tough when he’s aggressive. I’d also play Dawkins over Duncan if Duncan’s cold . Dawkins is very steady and I think we should go to him more if Duncan’s cold. I do like how Duncan can pass though and he’s shown he’s pretty good to the rack. Robinson could turn into a less athletic stauskas next year. I think by the time he leaves he’ll have an all around game.
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I think both teams pose issues for Michigan to the point that they haven’t been able to solve it. Ferrell might be the best player in the B1G at this point, he has always given Michigan a hard time and they have a very efficient offense.
MSU is still a tough out for Michigan. It will be interesting what the Michigan bigs do because they will have their hands full with Costello, look at his lines in conference this year.
17 and 7
17 and 15
9 and 14
8 and 9
15 and 9
18 and 13
8 and 10
15 and 12
4 and 7-only 12 mins
We haven’t even touched on containing Valentine or having to close out on Forbes, which Michigan did a horrible job of doing on Garner.
I guess it’s not surprising with Levert out the performances have really been slipping lately Minnesota/Rutgers/Penn St, best performance was Nebraska but IU/MSU are a different animal.
Best case scenario is they go 2-0, most realistic is 1-1. There’s a better chance of them going 0-2 than 2-0 though.
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I would also add Dakich can’t play in these two games at all, he’s not a B1G quality player and we have seen this repeatedly in games where he looks in over his head and just makes so many mistakes. 3-4 mins of Dakich could really hurt them in a game against a higher level of competition.
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Beilein typically has such great game plans for M in these high-stakes games; I am eager to see what he puts forward. Do agree that Valentine and Costello are a serious threat; somehow I think that we will beat IU and Ferrell (very glad if Blackmon does not see action). And I am very glad we are at home. If Donnal is not intimidated, that will be huge–I think we’re starting to get glimpses of him as more of a banging forward, but. . . how soon?
If I am Beilein I encourage them to go out and have fun; these games are not as definitive as some are making out–we will be the rest of the season re-integrating Caris, becoming the team we can be. That process will only be in its early stages this week.
Really need to beat one of these teams. JB’s teams always struggle against Indiana but still:
- Wisconsin beat Indiana and Michigan is better than Wisconsin.
- With all due respect to Max B, we didn’t let him transfer to Indiana so he could beat us in Ann Arbor.
- I assume Indiana doesn’t have Blackmon.
Bryant will be tough for us but overall I’m not convinced Indiana’s front court is comparable to Maryland’s and UM still found a way to beat them without LeVert.
These are key games because they are probably the most winnable outside of NW and Minn (neither of which do anything for the resume). Lose these two and I will be expecting them to find a way to shut down Hammons and Uthoff to stave off a total collapse down the stretch.
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I’m surprised Costello is doing so good. To me he’s always been a bum. Donnall to me has more upside than Costello. I figured schilling would be the better big. We have been rebounding pretty well imo. Holding our own I feel like. At least enough to get by.and win games. I feel like we have more skill than Michigan st.
On a side note I’m watching Villanova right now. Their ranked sixth in the country. But when I see them does anyone really think their better than us? I think we match up very well with these guys and that we could take them. I mean we blew that game last year. We should have won that game. And we’re only better this year and to me their only worse.
My real point is there are no elite teams this year. A bunch of good teams but there is so much parity and such s lack of next level terms that a team like us is not that far off a top ten team. Not much of a difference between us and say this nova. That’s why I’m so excited for this team. It’s good and deep with nice balance. We could be that seven seed or something who goes final four if they get help and play well. If we win one of these games and play tough in both ill know where we’re at.
Please play Dawkins. He’s due to take over a game like last year at some point. The potential is there to go off for 25 or so and take over a game.
Really wish Caris was back and the team chemistry is there onc again.
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He gets his hands on some balls to though.
Blackmon is out for the season, but Indiana has been clearly better without him. Defensive issues have been mostly cured without JB Jr. on the court and offense is just fine.
I would add that in addition to Dakich proving that he’s not a B1G quality player, neither is DJ Wilson at this point in time. Wilson has the upside but frankly he provides very little in terms of production.
UM should have been a deep team this year but Albrecht’s injury and the complete lack of development from Wilson and Chatman are really killing the bench. Wilson and Chatman can’t even be inserted into games at this point because every time they do, they almost immediately turn the ball over or jack up ill advised shots. I just hope our starters don’t get worn down later this month.
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The Caris/Spike injuries really ruined the depth. In a four guard lineup, losing two senior guards is a killer. Spike/Caris give everyone else the opportunity to slide up or down the lineup essentially and instead U-M has just had to ride its starters at the 1-4.
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They need to fit in before “fitting out,” so to speak. Just play in the flow of the offense and don’t take any quick shots, even if you are open. That’s how you buy more time on the court. No bad shots or glaring mistakes. Unfortunately, both have been a problem for DJ and Kam.
At home we will be favored against IU by both Vegas and Kenpom (where they are just 6 spots ahead of us). The key against Indiana is preventing fast break opportunities. I’d also like to see us drive the ball and perhaps get Bryant into foul trouble.
Similarly, a huge key against MSU will be making Forbes and Harris do something besides hit open 3s, especially in transition. They have a lot of players who aren’t particularly versatile. Valentine is what what makes them go, and the key is to make him a one-on-one player without giving up open 3s (to him or others).
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IMO
Bryant>Donnal
Williams<DRob
HartmanMAAR/ JohnsonDWalt
Indiana Bench<Michigan Bench
State
Costello>Donnal
Davis>DRob
Valentine>Irvin
Forbes>MAAR/ Forbes<LeVert if back
Harris UM Bench
I like the matchup with Indiana and hate it with State.
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The thing you didn’t mention is MSU is terrific in transition with Valentine who can rise and fire from 20 feet at any moment. If Michigan has turnover issues that will not bode well against MSU or any team this week for that matter.
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I guess I might as well sell my tickets. But then again, Beilein>Crean–all day, every day.
The interesting element of the MSU game is that MSU has gotten to a point where it almost always plays two bigs. Can whoever plays the four for MSU defend the 4-5 ball screen? That’s the million dollar question.
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Strange, I thought I specifically said it was a key to try to stop Forbes and Harris from getting transition 3s and that Valentine was the engine. My whole point was to make then do something on offense other than what they’re best at, which is transition 3s. As for Valentine, he’s an excellent player, but he’s most effective taking 3s and passing to others. My strategy against him would be to make him try to score one-on-one – make him put the ball on the floor and score.
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Is Goins a “big”? It doesn’t seem to me that MSU plays 2 of Costello, Davis, & Schilling together for more than 15 minutes a game. It will be interesting to watch how often they do it and how well it works.