I’ve gotta say, this series of articles, and others like it, are fantastic! It makes us smarter as fans. Thanks, Dylan.
I’m not sure the data supporting not attacking the glass is really relevant. You would want to compare the value of a transition possession to the value of an offensive rebound possession, not simply a half court possession. While I don’t know thats available, it’s seems logical that the possibility of an easy putback, makes the value of an offensive rebound much higher than a half court possession.
I was just comparing the expected points per defensive possession. How much the other team would be expected to score in transition versus in the half court. Sorry if that was unclear.
What you are talking about is the incremental value of crashing the glass and getting a putback. That becomes a bit more complicated because you have to weigh the chance you have to get an offensive rebound (a key point considering Michigan’s personnel).’
I hear what you are saying, but it would be a bit more complicated to derive.