Game 17: Northwestern at Michigan Preview


#1

#2

The expected points per shot data is cool – where is that from? Haven’t seen that for the college game.


#3

My database :wink: Pretty simple in this context (basically just lumping shots into zones) similar to what I did back at Krossover/Shot Analytics but a bit more simple (that had a few extra data points like catch and shoot/off the dribble).

At a simple level, this is just rim, four zones in mid-range, four zones in 3-point range to come up with a basic EV.


#4

Got it. Are you using D1/Big Ten averages for shooting % by zone then?


#5

Yep, D1 averages. Same stuff that is used to make the Vic Law shot chart, for example.


#6

I definitely agree that Michigan won’t send a double team at Pardon, particularly when Teske guards him. As you astutely pointed out, only one of Pardon’s baskets in the first matchup originated from a post-up. In fact, Teske has only allowed 24 points on 44 post-up plays (0.545 points per play) this season. Michigan will take a rate near that all day.

I also expect Northwestern to start the game playing with Law/a “free safety” off Zavier, daring him to shoot. Michigan will certainly be more prepared, but given how well it worked last time, I imagine they roll it out to start. In that case, anticipate more ball screens for Zavier, Simpson coming off screen(s) before receiving the ball so he has a head start, or even using him as an off-ball screener to free up shooters.


#7

I was thinking more of the opposite, that they wouldn’t repeat that strategy unless nothing else works.

I think Simpson is going to be really pumped to play NW and is probably hoping that they will try that against him again.


#8

Yeah, watching those highlights made me feel better about Teske’s chances guarding Pardon.

As for watching those clips of X, it looks to me like he had a couple opportunities to attack closeouts against Law. I have a feeling, though, that we’ll see X take a couple wide open 3s, which is fine too.


#9

I agree I think it will be more of a change up when needed. They really went to it last game to preserve Law being on the floor in foul trouble.


#10

Despite Bryant McIntosh’s graduation, Northwestern still has the worst shot selection in the Big Ten.

Ouch.


#11

100% agree. Simpson seemed like he took that personal and I think you’re dead on, he’ll make them pay if they try that defense again.


#12

That made me LOL. Savage! (Do the kids still say that?)


#13

You guys make it sound like just because Simpson is motivated to “make them pay”, his 3 pointers are going to magically start going in. Like he doesn’t care enough all the other times he’s missing? :wink:


#14

That’s how I feel when the announcers go on and on about how much he works on his hook shot. Does he just not work on free throws and threes then?


#15

If you don’t think competitors take certain players, teams or games more personal than others when they’re directly challenged, then I don’t know what to tell you.

He’s not a good three point shooter, no, so he’s not going to magically make threes. I guarantee he’s going to have a little more eyebrows down and motivation to hit some threes if they play that defense on him again.


#16

Motivation won’t have any effect on his shooting skills.


#17

But it will probably have an impact on his performance if we are being honest.


#18

I think being ready for the possibility of them dropping off of X is in itself an advantage. It was a surprise in the first game, but now expect X and M to be prepared.


#19

X will be really focused against NW. You can count on that.


#20

:thinking: :thinking: :thinking: :thinking: