Game 17: Northwestern at Michigan Preview

The expected points per shot data is cool – where is that from? Haven’t seen that for the college game.

My database :wink: Pretty simple in this context (basically just lumping shots into zones) similar to what I did back at Krossover/Shot Analytics but a bit more simple (that had a few extra data points like catch and shoot/off the dribble).

At a simple level, this is just rim, four zones in mid-range, four zones in 3-point range to come up with a basic EV.

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Got it. Are you using D1/Big Ten averages for shooting % by zone then?

Yep, D1 averages. Same stuff that is used to make the Vic Law shot chart, for example.

I definitely agree that Michigan won’t send a double team at Pardon, particularly when Teske guards him. As you astutely pointed out, only one of Pardon’s baskets in the first matchup originated from a post-up. In fact, Teske has only allowed 24 points on 44 post-up plays (0.545 points per play) this season. Michigan will take a rate near that all day.

I also expect Northwestern to start the game playing with Law/a “free safety” off Zavier, daring him to shoot. Michigan will certainly be more prepared, but given how well it worked last time, I imagine they roll it out to start. In that case, anticipate more ball screens for Zavier, Simpson coming off screen(s) before receiving the ball so he has a head start, or even using him as an off-ball screener to free up shooters.

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I was thinking more of the opposite, that they wouldn’t repeat that strategy unless nothing else works.

I think Simpson is going to be really pumped to play NW and is probably hoping that they will try that against him again.


Yeah, watching those highlights made me feel better about Teske’s chances guarding Pardon.

As for watching those clips of X, it looks to me like he had a couple opportunities to attack closeouts against Law. I have a feeling, though, that we’ll see X take a couple wide open 3s, which is fine too.

I agree I think it will be more of a change up when needed. They really went to it last game to preserve Law being on the floor in foul trouble.

Despite Bryant McIntosh’s graduation, Northwestern still has the worst shot selection in the Big Ten.



100% agree. Simpson seemed like he took that personal and I think you’re dead on, he’ll make them pay if they try that defense again.

That made me LOL. Savage! (Do the kids still say that?)

You guys make it sound like just because Simpson is motivated to “make them pay”, his 3 pointers are going to magically start going in. Like he doesn’t care enough all the other times he’s missing? :wink:

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That’s how I feel when the announcers go on and on about how much he works on his hook shot. Does he just not work on free throws and threes then?

If you don’t think competitors take certain players, teams or games more personal than others when they’re directly challenged, then I don’t know what to tell you.

He’s not a good three point shooter, no, so he’s not going to magically make threes. I guarantee he’s going to have a little more eyebrows down and motivation to hit some threes if they play that defense on him again.

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Motivation won’t have any effect on his shooting skills.


But it will probably have an impact on his performance if we are being honest.


I think being ready for the possibility of them dropping off of X is in itself an advantage. It was a surprise in the first game, but now expect X and M to be prepared.


X will be really focused against NW. You can count on that.


:thinking: :thinking: :thinking: :thinking: