Right, but the metrics like Michigan more and we are the better team. Barring something crazy, if we play our game and NW plays theirs, we win that most of the time. The refs definitely equalized the difference there a bit I think.
Also we had our 2 main front court players foul out. NW had 1 guy foul out? Definitely benefited them more I’d say.
On a scale of 1-100, how much did you think they were making a game winning 3 there?
There’s no way it’s just because of that. I’m sure there are things that have happened to get to this point and the shoe thing was the straw that broke the camel’s back
It’s worse than wide right/ music city miracle, mainly because it was soooooo preventable.
McDermott is a great culture builder/ good guy but he freezes up in big moments and loses far too many games they have no business losing.
Going prevent with no one within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage on that wr screen /wall pass to Hill was next level stupid. You don’t hand a team a free 20 yards when they need to go 45 to get in range with three to’s.
As soon as I saw they were in trips I knew what they were about to do. I mean every fat slob in America knew what they were running, just not the two people who needed to know. Every team does the same play in that situation when a d comes out that soft near the end of a half.
Absolutely disgraceful.
That all happened so fast that I don’t think I had time to process everything until the buzzer sounded. I think most of that 4.8 seconds I was mad about the lack of a foul call on the rebound
Let’s not forget, Jaron made the outlet pass to Houstan for the 3. Do we think Johns has the presence of mind to make that decision in that instant?
I can’t help rooting for Johns but I’m at the point where I’m convinced he will never turn the corner.
No, I definitely agree. I’d like someone who didn’t have to watch the game on their computer to weigh in on whether all of those were fouls or not. It sure seemed excessive to me, but maybe they really were all fouls? I don’t know. I can’t remember hearing that many whistles, though. Just non stop.
Watching Pickett and Penn st.
Haven’t seen him or P-state much this year. Would we be better off with Jones or Pickett this year based off what you guys have seen?
As a die-hard lifelong fan in this game and this season…maybe we should take a thread poll. Embarrassed to say I felt certain.
Why do the media timeouts not count? Why don’t your timeouts help the other team as much as they help yours?
It’s regression to the mean. You call a timeout when the team is playing below its potential; they appear to improve; you credit the timeout.
Here’s some research on it that appears to find a slight positive correlation from a called timeout: https://www.causeweb.org/usproc/sites/default/files/usresp/2019-1/An%20Examination%20of%20Timeout%20Value%2C%20Strategy%2C%20and%20Momentum%20in%20NCAA%20Division%201%20Mens%20Basketball.pdf
That said, the authors mostly appear to be falling into the same trap – the phrase “regression to the mean” does not appear, and they’re basing their results mainly on a change in the point value before and after a timeout, which is exactly what you would expect to see if it were due solely to regression to the mean. Now, to be fair, they did try, with a rudimentary model based upon Vegas point spreads, to account for that, but the resulting R^2 values are quite small, showing a weak correlation.
In fact, my best guess at interpreting this data is that the authors confuse correlation and causation. Coaches call timeouts when their team is at the end of a bad run – it’s conventional wisdom, after all – and so they appear to work.
Anyway, if you’d like to accept the results of this study at face value, despite the methodology, they show that a called timeout is worth somewhere between 1 and 2 points. So, again, nothing I’m going to get worked up about. Note that they do not see a similar effect from media timeouts, and credit to them for checking; frankly, I expected to see more regression to the mean after media timeouts also.
You may be right about younger teams vs. older teams… and, yes, I wish Faulds had passed it (who knew he was such a great passer? 
) if he had an open passing lane. But the Northwestern player was on him immediately; that could easily have turned into a particularly painful turnover.
Hmm, nice pull. Though I’ll add that Northwestern’s Kenpom (64) isn’t that far off from UCLA’s that season (56).
I’d also like to know where we come out on “on what level did winning that game completely defy reason.”
I think I’m at a very high number on that one. I can’t believe they won that game.
I’ll check it out. The contention really surprises me. I can answer one of the questions, though - presumably the other team didn’t need a timeout, and your team did. I mean, one team didn’t want the game to stop and the other team did, no?
I generally am thinking all the time about stuff like praying for a foul or a loose ball to get to an auto timeout fwiw.
At least 100.
Reading through the thread after getting back and in the sea of apocalyptic meltdowns I see my man ucntseemoi staying positive as usual. Keep on keeping on. Love your attitude.
I mean was it a crazy contention, considering how pretty much every game that has gotten away from us has completely gotten away from us?
I am honestly shocked that they found equilibrium and somehow turned that around. Faulds, Houstan, and Jones had a lot to do with that, beyond that, I can’t believe it happened.
Maybe that is a turning of the corner. I don’t know. Massive runs against us have been a real problem.
We all were begging for better 3 point shooting. We had it tonight and still had to eke out a victory. It defies logic. Good news is Hunter tends to come out in beast mode after a “bad” game lately.
About time. We’ve lost quite a bit of the close games under Howard.
Johns not so sure, but the two people they had on the blocks were TWill and Faulds. I get needing to get the board, but those are not the guys you want on the line on the other end.