Hate to break it to you guys, but 5 losses wasn’t out of the question with Franz.
Brandon Johns biggest issue seemed to be confidence. This sucks obviously but a blessing in disguise for his start to the year. (If healthy) He’s going to have to play through mistakes and won’t have Franz coming in as soon as he makes any. This could help unlock his confidence a bit.
I think there’s a bit of a balance there. You can’t afford to have 6 losses before January either.
So Franz being out limits the versatility of the lineups that could be used. Livers is locked in at the 3 now. Which makes Johns and Castleton the options at the 4. I suppose Livers could slide down to 4 in a lineup that has Nunez or Bajema at the 3, but I wasn’t really buying either guy as a contributor this year. gulp
1: X, DDJ
2: Brooks, DDJ?
3: Livers, Nunez?
4: Johns? Castleton?
5: Teske, Castleton
Just based on the timeframe given…
Best case seems like he’s back the week before the Houston Baptist game, gets some run in that game and then can play in the Bahamas. In that case, you aren’t all that worried about this injury. Especially if he makes a clean recovery.
Worst case scenario is that the injury starts to linger into early December for those Big Ten games.
I just get a bit worried when you have any injury that doesn’t require surgery to heal. Seems like that can be tough to diagnose and tough to predict recovery time.
If he missed all that time and Michigan lost games in Nov/Dec and then Michigan won games in the Big Ten with Franz, it would be on the committee to include Franz’ injury in the evaluation. I feel like we’ve seen that before.
My biggest fear (which I think will come true) is what happens if the 5 best players without Franz are clearly Simpson, Livers, Teske…drop off…Castleton, Johns and then a major drop off…
I want to talk myself into a “big guard” lineup with Livers at the 2 and Johns at the 3 but that’s just so nonsensical.
I believe you only get that luxury if you’re Duke.
I think so much of the issue here has to do with Johns’ timetable. Z, Brooks, Livers, Johns, and Teske is a nice starting lineup… but without Johns?? We’re toast at the 3-4 position due to crap depth. Wonder how long Johns will actually be out for.
Yeah 6 nonconference losses plus 8-10 conference losses plus probably one in the BTT = 15-17 losses. Not sure the committee would put THAT much weight into it to put a team in the field with that many losses.
Hopefully they don’t actually lose 6 times in the non conference.
I think this news locks in 30+ minutes per game to start the year for Eli.
PG: Simpson (36) - DDJ (4)
SG: Brooks (33) - DDJ (8)
SF: Livers (26) - Nunez / Bajema (14)
PF: Johns (25) - Livers (9) - Castleton (6)
C : Teske (28) - Castleton (12)
This is my best guess at a rotation right now. Assuming Johns is able to play and the sprain is resolved quickly… If not…
I mean, at some point you to win some actual games obviously.
Now lets project if Johns misses any time.
PG: Simpson 34, DDJ 6
SG: Brooks 32, DDJ 8
SF: Livers 25, Nunez 15
PF: Castleton 25, Livers 10, Faulds 5
C: Teske 30, Davis 10
Ugh, so we will need a new football and basketball coach by next year.
Anyone else we can fire?
Well yeah, but now it may put the onus on them to go like 14-6 in conference which is really tough. Winning some of those big non-conference games allows more leeway. No Franz or a limited Franz makes it that much more difficult to win those tough NC games.
If we lose 6 non-conference games, that means we lost 1 of the guarantee games (5 of them) or lost all 3 in Atlantis, which would likely include a loss to Southern Mississippi (ranked 229 in pre-season kenpom), and won neither of our home games against good but not top 25 teams (Oregon is 30, Creighton is 36 in kenpom). That could occur, but it is extremely unlikely. Franz’ injury could make it more likely we’ll lose 5 than 3, but 6 seems an extreme overreaction.
Oh dear god
I kinda want to know if Nunez can actually play.
I don’t think I ever said anything about losing 6 non-conference games. Did I?