Average next year or for his career? Either way that’s a tough sell. I don’t think he’s gonna take the nba by storm but iggy will be a tough guard for 95 percent of college players, particularly if he’s around 2-3 years.
Fans have a tendency to think that just because something is improbable, that you’re automatically “lucky” when it happens, but in reality, very few things in sports are decided by pure luck. It’s usually a matter of talent, preparation, and execution, as it was in this case.
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And I wasn’t even trying to play semantics between “improbable” and “lucky”…I just genuinely think calling it “insanely” lucky was off base. To put a number on it, I’d bet our chances there were something like 20%, instead of 5%.
Kenpom has it at 3.4%
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Which doesn’t take into account player and prep. I would agree others aren’t as good or prepared at it.
I would say Houston had a better than 80% chance of winning the game, up 2, heading to the line, with 3.9 left on the clock.
You don’t need Ken Pomeroy’s input. Watch Rob Gray’s little bro dancing around courtside. You just don’t dance around like that little kid–if your odds of winning are only 80%.
I agree from that starting point, because you are also factoring in the missed free throws, and getting the ball to Poole in that spot. I am talking about Poole’s shot specifically, because that was the way it was originally framed. Anyway, we’re rabbit holing on a small point…we don’t have to keep doing that.
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We are 6x better than the expectation? Lmao
Kenpom has it as 8.4% after the missed free throws
OK…now get me the number from when Poole caught the ball in that spot…then factor in player and prep…and I feel like I’m in the ballpark.
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I hope our team is as anxious as we are 
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Yeah, Kenpom’s win probability of teams in that situation (i.e., down 2 with 3.6 seconds on the clock) is not the same as estimating how many times Poole hits that shot.
I mean, it was deep, but probably not significantly more than an NBA 3, and you have a very good 3 point shooter in a catch-and-shoot with his feet set. If the question is what are the odds Jordan Poole makes that shot, without factoring in the difficulty in setting it up, etc., I don’t think 20% is a high estimate.
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Never forget “The Block”.
Good point!