Fact is, you have no clue what I think the ceiling is. I think that we are at least a S16 team. Apparently, you don't think we are a S16 team. That's okay, maybe you are right. Time will tell.
Exactly, nobody knows what the ceiling is (including you and I), but based on talent level, I don’t think there are many people (UM diehards included) that believe we have a F4 capable team. We have the depth, just not the top end talent.
Fact is, you have no clue what I think the ceiling is. I think that we are at least a S16 team. Apparently, you don't think we are a S16 team. That's okay, maybe you are right. Time will tell.Exactly, nobody knows what the ceiling is (including you and I), but based on talent level, I don’t think there are many people (UM diehards included) that believe we have a F4 capable team. We have the depth, just not the top end talent.
I agree that odds are we are not going to make the final 4. But history has showed that everything is possible. It only takes a few unexpected X factors, great team cohesion, lots of momentum and confidence, and ending up in the right bracket with the right matchups.
As the most recent example, was MSU really a final 4 team? Not by a long shot IMO. They didn’t have the talent, they just got lucky to be put in this specific quadrant.
So all that to say, we don’t look like a final 4 team right now, but given the right ingredients unknown at this very moment, who knows, and anybody can be optimistic.
Capable? Of course we’re F4 capable. We’ll be better than MSU was this past year. A lot will depend on draw, obviously.
Let’s cut to the chase…we need to be lucky to get past the S16 in terms of region, higher seed losing, etc…can that happen, of course. Is banking on luck a smart bet, no. I’m basing my assessment on talent and depth, and based on those things, I think we’re a good, and certainly not great, team.
Let's cut to the chase............we need to be lucky to get past the S16 in terms of region, higher seed losing, etc................can that happen, of course. Is banking on luck a smart bet, no. I'm basing my assessment on talent and depth, and based on those things, I think we're a good, and certainly not great, team.
In your assessment though, you are assuming that Wilson, Robinson, Wagner, and Kam would be non factors, correct? I’m assuming this based on your comments about them, but I might be wrong.
If any of them puts on big numbers and makes a difference, don’t you think that our current assessment could evolve?
I’m speaking in generalities, chances are they won’t be huge factors. But who knows. And this is not based on luck, it’s because we have limited knowledge at this point.
Still recovering from the over-investment in “what could have been” with Jaylen, but pleased with the pieces coming back. I don’t know how a lot of this will fit together including Duncan/Wilson/new Kam, but the prospect of the Zak Irvin of the last 5-10 games being a creator off the bounce is really intriguing, especially with better shooting around him in Caris/Walton/Duncan. It may take a little while to figure out how the pieces fit, but I can definitely reflect on what I saw in spurts during that Nova game (last time this team was fully healthy) and see this being a very comfortable/confident group from the start, against what will be a very challenging schedule.
Separately, very curious to see who we draw in the ACC. Lots of chatter (Andy Katz anyway) that IU/Duke and MD/NC are already paired in some way. Given we played Cuse last year, and would in theory match up with a team that was on the road last year (eliminating LVille), could Virginia be in the cards? Would seemingly be them NCSt, Pitt, unless they give someone back to back home games.
Fully agree that unless you’re elite, SW16 vs F4 is probably more driven by matchups. Can’t imagine us as elite at this stage, but can certainly hope.
I think there are SO many uncertainties with this team that the floor-to-ceiling range is quite wide. I could see us being a 3 seed or an 11 seed based solely on the outcome of a few games…
I feel pretty darn comfortable with our top 3 (Caris/Walton/Irvin), and I assume Doyle will eat up a majority of the minutes at the 5 (foul trouble not withstanding).
After that, it is such a crapshoot when it comes to a distribution of minutes because there really just won’t be that many minutes available. And that might be the X-factor…do we even have a rotation? Or will it just be a “ride the hot hand” type of team when it comes to the bench? Or maybe platoon (offensive lineup/defensive lineup)? Unlike prior years, the difference between the impact our 4th guy can have and our 10th guy might have may not be too different. This might be JB’s biggest conundrum.
Bottom line, when it comes to the tourney, there usually isn’t much of a difference between a 4 seed and a 5 seed (or a 3 and 6 in some years)…so making the Sweet16 is not as easy as it sounds for those squads. That’s why I typically don’t judge a teams success based on tourney results, although I certainly acknowledge that is what they are judged on
I don’t think we’ve had this much MYSTERY going into a season.
Not only did we have a lot of youth get good experience to finish last season - bringing the usual questions of who will make that sophomore leap - but we also have the unusual intrigue of a 6’8" D3 Transfer and a 6’9" German. Who can say that?
I don't think we've had this much MYSTERY going into a season.Not only did we have a lot of youth get good experience to finish last season - bringing the usual questions of who will make that sophomore leap - but we also have the unusual intrigue of a 6’8" D3 Transfer and a 6’9" German. Who can say that?
Not only that, but even our “proven” commodities have some mystery/intrigue…will Caris/Walton/Spike be healthy? Which Zak Irvin will we see with Caris back in the fold? How many times will Dan Dakich mention how much he misses Biefeldt’s calves, or how he coached Mark Donnal in AAU?
I don't think we've had this much MYSTERY going into a season.Not only did we have a lot of youth get good experience to finish last season - bringing the usual questions of who will make that sophomore leap - but we also have the unusual intrigue of a 6’8" D3 Transfer and a 6’9" German. Who can say that?
Not only that, but even our “proven” commodities have some mystery/intrigue…will Caris/Walton/Spike be healthy? Which Zak Irvin will we see with Caris back in the fold? How many times will Dan Dakich mention how much he misses Biefeldt’s calves, or how he coached Mark Donnal in AAU?
Dont really care about those first questions, however those last two questions I am dying to know the answer to
I realize that everyone plays a limited number in their rotation but when you look at this team against the teams that they will line up against, don’t you think in almost every situation that we go better from 1 - 10 than just about all of them? Think about that for a minute. Maryland is widely considered to be the projected top team in B1G next year. Their starting lineup might top ours in some spots and perhaps overall, but when they go to the bench I think we bring in more talent at every spot (assuming Stone is starting for them). Not just incrementally better either. Just my opinion.
I realize that everyone plays a limited number in their rotation but when you look at this team against the teams that they will line up against, don't you think in almost every situation that we go better from 1 - 10 than just about all of them? Think about that for a minute. Maryland is widely considered to be the projected top team in B1G next year. Their starting lineup might top ours in some spots and perhaps overall, but when they go to the bench I think we bring in more talent at every spot (assuming Stone is starting for them). Not just incrementally better either. Just my opinion.
I’m with Jeff Van Gundy…the bench just doesn’t mean all that much, UNLESS you get in foul trouble. Even moreso in college, since the game is only 40 minutes are we’re talking 18-23 year olds. That being said, I do think our depth will benefit us to the extent that we have a plethora of options (most of which are effective) depending on a matchup that allows for some flexibility rather than be forced to put a guy on the court by default.
I see what you are saying but how many times last year did we lose ground in a game because of the 2 foul halftime rule? Not that Dawkins is exactly the player that Caris is, but for every situation that would occur to force someone to the bench, we don’t drop off like we use to and other teams will. Plus, with the depth that we have I hope that JB decides that this is the team to run. A roster with the shooters we have that can swap players out frequently enough to keep everyone fresh… let’s go!
I see what you are saying but how many times last year did we lose ground in a game because of the 2 foul halftime rule? Not that Dawkins is exactly the player that Caris is, but for every situation that would occur to force someone to the bench, we don't drop off like we use to and other teams will. Plus, with the depth that we have I hope that JB decides that this is the team to run. A roster with the shooters we have that can swap players out frequently enough to keep everyone fresh...... let's go!
We didn’t lose because of foul trouble, we lost because of JB. He essentially fouls players out by default.
I realize that everyone plays a limited number in their rotation but when you look at this team against the teams that they will line up against, don't you think in almost every situation that we go better from 1 - 10 than just about all of them? Think about that for a minute. Maryland is widely considered to be the projected top team in B1G next year. Their starting lineup might top ours in some spots and perhaps overall, but when they go to the bench I think we bring in more talent at every spot (assuming Stone is starting for them). Not just incrementally better either. Just my opinion.I’m with Jeff Van Gundy…the bench just doesn’t mean all that much, UNLESS you get in foul trouble. Even moreso in college, since the game is only 40 minutes are we’re talking 18-23 year olds. That being said, I do think our depth will benefit us to the extent that we have a plethora of options (most of which are effective) depending on a matchup that allows for some flexibility rather than be forced to put a guy on the court by default.
Agreed, the only time a bench is more valuable than other times is those early season tourneys if you play 3 in 3 and rotations might not be set in stone yet. Even during conference tournaments teams have their rotations pretty much set. Michigan has the potential for a 9 or 10 man rotation but in reality I think it ends up being 8 with a 9th player playing based on foul trouble.
I go back and forth on the depth discussion…
If you have eight guys that you trust, I think that’s plenty to just roll with them. That’s the sort of situation that Beilein has generally looked for in the past and that he’s probably most comfortable with.
Michigan’s situation is a bit different. There definitely aren’t eight guys you can trust (maybe 4 or 5), but there are so many candidates (all with different questions to answer) to fill those additional spots. You’d rather have too many options when you aren’t sure about them than not enough.
By next March, that group could still be trimmed down to 8 or 9, but early on I think you have to give everyone a chance because I’m not sure what separates them.
I’ve never viewed a deep bench as a necessity, at least in terms of actual games. I think depth is critical for roster flexibility and most importantly, for practice.
Having quality depth for practices provides coaches more tools to simulate other teams in practices as well as ensure they the top guys are sufficiently challenged in the practice setting. This past season, the staff couldn’t practice like they wanted to because they lacked bodies and when there were enough bodies, they were undersized and under-talented. I mean, due to injury, UM was forced to play guys that were still wet behind the ears and to make things worse, they had a very difficult time preparing those guys in practice because of the injuries, illnesses, etc. How much is Aubrey and MAAR going to learn in practice going up against a couple of managers?
One of the reasons I feel good about next year is depth. And I’m not talking about in game depth, I’m talking about practice depth. I think that is a big positive for this team going into the season.
I think what the deep bench will really provide is a way to break offensive droughts. When the guys that are on the floor can’t score, pop in a guy like Robinson who can hopefully be what Irvin was his freshman year or Dawkins for that role, put MAAR in and you get someone who can get to the basket if no shots are falling, sub in Spike and you get some good outside shooting with great passing/decision making.
I don’t think we will see the scoring droughts that we saw last year.
I go back and forth on the depth discussion...If you have eight guys that you trust, I think that’s plenty to just roll with them. That’s the sort of situation that Beilein has generally looked for in the past and that he’s probably most comfortable with.
Michigan’s situation is a bit different. There definitely aren’t eight guys you can trust (maybe 4 or 5), but there are so many candidates (all with different questions to answer) to fill those additional spots. You’d rather have too many options when you aren’t sure about them than not enough.
By next March, that group could still be trimmed down to 8 or 9, but early on I think you have to give everyone a chance because I’m not sure what separates them.
I think your theory can work if you have a lot of opportunities to try out rotations of 9-10 guys. I don’t really believe they have that many chances because teams play challenging out of conference schedules and the goal is to still rack up wins. If you look at this year they have a good field in Atlantis, SMU, Xavier, a team in ACC/B1G challenge, Cinci etc… Those group of games are important. how many other games do you have to test out larger rotations 5 or 6? Those games will be against lower level competition that doesn’t necessarily give you an indication if they can handle better competition.
We didn’t lose because of foul trouble, we lost because of JB. He essentially fouls players out by default.
I see on this forum that a number of people think this way but I’m of the school where I think that stance adds considerably to the overall lack of fouls that we commit. So when it does bite us in the rear, I understand where JB is coming from on not being flexible. That was my coach in H.S. as well and it definitely got in your head once you got that first foul.
Having said that, if you are specifically referring to the National Championship game, I would likely have to agree re: Trey.