That’s such a hard question.
Walton - Levert - Irvin - Dawkins - Doyle
Spike - Donnal - Robinson
*Chatman has to show me something to get into the top 8
…which sounds odd since I picked Robinson…don’t ask
*Rahk seems too good to keep off the floor too, I wouldn’t mind him at the 1 instead of Spike at time.
*Wilson, Wagner who knows what they can bring but I doubt it’s better than Robinson IMO or Chatman
I can buy that we’ll primarily have a 7 man rotation for the 1-4…
Walton-Levert-Spike
Irvin-Dawkins-two of Chatman/Wagner/Robinson
…but Doyle will need both Donnal and Wilson behind him. I think you have to carve out the 5.
Yea I agree with Matt d maar is a must and possibly the best revelation of an otherwise poor season. Not only his d but ability to run and create toward the rim.
Agree about Cam…I just didn’t see anything promising from him last year. He went scoreless in three of his last four games, so I’m not sure what the people saying it looked like the game was slowing down for him were seeing. He would have to make an improbably large leap to be better than Dawkins next year and grab a starting spot. I would be very surprised if he were better than our second guy off the bench.
MAAR is only a must if Spike is not 100%. If Spike is anything other then 100%, MAAR is my choice. I don’t think Spike will be 100%… Just my opinion.
Walton/MAAR
LeVert
Dawkins/Irvin
Chatman/Robinson
Doyle
A constant rotation of guards and wings. MAAR is able to backup PG if need be, although preferably as little as possible. I think Chatman takes a huge step forward this year. I think Dawkins is a potential NBA guy. A bunch of interchangeable peices. Doyle obviously must be reliable and durable.
Late to the party but here's what I hope/expect the minutes to be:Walton 28-30 Spike/MAAR 10-12
Caris 25-28 Spike/MAAR 12-15
Irvin 28-30 Dawkins/Caris 10-12
Cam 14-18 Dawkins/Robinson/Irvin/Wilson 22-26
Doyle 22-28 Donnal/Wilson 12-18I realize Wilson isn’t a 5, but then again Neither was Smotz but JB still was forced to use him there due to lack of depth at the position. I believe there are games this year where we are going to run into a similar situation.
I also think Cam’s ceiling is much higher than Dawkins and Robinson’s and an off season in the weight room working on his lower body is going to do wonders for him.
I wanted to give Doyle more minutes, but that all depends on his conditioning. If he can get himself in shape enough to handle 30 minutes, I think he gets those minutes.
I was tempted to give Caris more minutes, but I think that would be irresponsible with all things considered. If we want to make a run in the NCAA tournament, Caris needs to be healthy. Can’t afford to run him into the ground. Same goes for Walton. I want him to be a 35+ minute a night player, but it’s not worth the risk.
I just don’t see that high ceiling with Cam at all, barring a major transformation. He can’t shoot, he’s not strong or quick and he looked lost on offense and defense for much of the season.
I'm swayed by Matt D's comments re: MAAR. The guys who've already proven themselves to be B1G-caliber are:Walton
Caris
Spike
Irvin
Dawkins
MAAR
DoyleTo project that one guy specifically takes the leap to steal minutes from that group is tough given the current evidence. Donnal will get some default minutes and everyone else is going to have to prove their worth.
Not that this is the question, but to me that’s a top 25-35 team with some upside in case one of Robinson/Chatman/Wilson breaks out in a big way.
…Oh and hey. First time poster, long time reader.
Don’t be swayed by him! That’s a slippery slope! haha
One thing when debating this, I’m glad we’re not figuring out where the walkons get minutes.
I’m swayed by Matt D’s comments re: MAAR. The guys who’ve already proven themselves to be B1G-caliber are:
Walton
Caris
Spike
Irvin
Dawkins
MAAR
Doyle
To project that one guy specifically takes the leap to steal minutes from that group is tough given the current evidence. Donnal will get some default minutes and everyone else is going to have to prove their worth.
Not that this is the question, but to me that’s a top 25-35 team with some upside in case one of Robinson/Chatman/Wilson breaks out in a big way.
…Oh and hey. First time poster, long time reader.
Having Irvin or Dawkins guarding opposing 4s isn’t a particularly attractive prospect, but you have to work with what you have. Lacking the ability to swap guys out from one end of the floor to the other, you have to play the best guys overall. Anybody on the roster who is potentially better at defending an opposing PF (Wilson, Donnal?) is probably going to be a significant step down from Dawkins or Irvin at the offensive end. Having Donnal spend 30 minutes a game trying to score against opposing 4s is not a happy thought, either. Perhaps the ideal blend of offense and defense will emerge, but I’m not sure who that would be at this point. If I had to guess, Beilein will favor offense if he has to come down on one side or the other.
If I recall correctly, even with Stauskas, Hardaway, Glenn, and LeVert at his disposal, Beilein still occasionally played Burke and Spike together in a small-ball lineup. With less talent than that year (and a more defensively sound combo guard in MAAR), I definitely see some small ball happening. And for the first time in recent memory, the small lineup shouldn’t be a major liability on D (at least not in the backcourt). Plus it gets MAAR in the game, without necessarily taking LeVert out. As noted above, I don’t see Walton and Spike sharing the court much anymore.
The thing with Mark Donnal is that he has the ability to score. It may not come from the post all the time, but he does put up some points I think most likely Donnal will take 5 minutes and Wilson 5 as a split backup for Doyle unless someone earns the minutes. I think if anyone does earn it it would be Donnal.I really can not see a 6 man rotation: My PREDICTION is
Pg Walton (30 min) Albrecht (20 min)
SG LeVert (30 min) MAAR (15 min)
SF Irvin (30 min) Robinson (7 min)
PF Dawkins (20 min) Chatman (8 min)
C Doyle (30 min) Donnal (5 min) Wilson (5 min)Red shirt for Wagner
Personally I would be disappointed if a top 20-40 recruit in Wagner would get redshirted. If he’s in fact that talented Michigan isn’t in a position to be redshirting talent like that.
Reality is that none of us, scouts included, really no how good/bad Wagner is…just too many variable in terms of competition level, style of play, physicality, etc. I think that Wagner will be a decent player down the road, but also think he’s a project…but I’m not too sound in my opinion because of said variables. This truly is a wait and see type of deal with Wagner.
I agree I was just responding because there seems to be a portion of individuals here that seem to think Wagner is a top 40 guy. I agree there are a lot of variables in regards to him. I would have preferred another ball handler but that’s not our choice.
I think there is certainly merit to the logjam among proven commodities theory...........but its not like we don't play smallball all the time. So I can envision a lineup where Caris slides to the 3, MAAR at the 1 or 2 combined with Spike and/or Walton, especially when we need speed on the floor.
I like the idea, I’m just not sure of the chances of it being utilized.
Seems like the direction isn’t toward small ball considering we’re adding 6’8 Robinson, 6’9 Wilson, and 6’9 Wagner to the mix this year.
I like Rahk’s mentality with the ball in his hands…get to the hoop, pull up jumpers, etc.
He can become a nice creator - maybe one of the better ones on the team. If he can work on consistency with his jumper, could be hard to keep off the floor.
(Likewise with Dawkins, if he can figure out how to use his athleticism on defense/rebounding)
The thing with Mark Donnal is that he has the ability to score. It may not come from the post all the time, but he does put up some points I think most likely Donnal will take 5 minutes and Wilson 5 as a split backup for Doyle unless someone earns the minutes. I think if anyone does earn it it would be Donnal.I really can not see a 6 man rotation: My PREDICTION is
Pg Walton (30 min) Albrecht (20 min)
SG LeVert (30 min) MAAR (15 min)
SF Irvin (30 min) Robinson (7 min)
PF Dawkins (20 min) Chatman (8 min)
C Doyle (30 min) Donnal (5 min) Wilson (5 min)Red shirt for Wagner
Personally I would be disappointed if a top 20-40 recruit in Wagner would get redshirted. If he’s in fact that talented Michigan isn’t in a position to be redshirting talent like that.
Reality is that none of us, scouts included, really know how good/bad Wagner is…just too many variables in terms of competition level, style of play, physicality, etc. I think that Wagner will be a decent player down the road, but also think he’s a project…but I’m not too sound in my opinion because of said variables. This truly is a wait and see type of deal with Wagner.
Caris, Walton, Irvin, Dawkins, Doyle, Donnal, MAAR, Spike
Walton or Caris or Spike could slide to the wing when MAAR is in because they can all shoot.
I think if Robinson, Chatman, Wagner or Wilson play themselves into the regular rotation, that is probably a very good thing for us. Because I’m pretty comfortable with that 8.
Not going to be an 8 man rotation. So I ban myself from playing along.
I could even see a lineup of
C Doyle/Donnal/Wilson
PF Irvin/Chatman
SF LeVert/Robinson
SG MAAR/Dawkins
PG Walton/Albrecht
And if the 8 man rotation is in play have MAAR start and 3 off the bench Donnal/Wilson, Dawkins, and Spike. That would work better IMO.
Kam, Zak, Derrick, Caris, DJ, Robinson, Dawkins, Doyle.
I could even see a lineup of C Doyle/Donnal/Wilson PF Irvin/Chatman SF LeVert/Robinson SG MAAR/Dawkins PG Walton/AlbrechtAnd if the 8 man rotation is in play have MAAR start and 3 off the bench Donnal/Wilson, Dawkins, and Spike. That would work better IMO.
I actually like that lineup a fair bit, I would rather not have Irvin at the 4 but roster composition points to this happening this year. If you start Dawkins between Caris, Derrick and Zak I don’t think Dawkins would be getting many shots. He might be best coming off the bench.
Is it just me, or do others cringe at the idea of either Zak or Dawkins defending the 4 spot? I definitely think both of those guys bring value on the other end, but can't help but to wonder if it is a net negative to play either of those guys at the 4. Be interesting to see if Chatman/Wilson/Wagner can step up and man that spot.
If it’s an either or scenario I would have Zak guarding the 4. The other 3 you name they really night to bulk up in order to guard 4’s. From those 3 ironically I don’t think anybody knows what the expect offensively. If those 3 can’t bring anything offensively I can see Beilein benching them and going with Zak or Dawkins at the 4. Beilein wants to be able to score at every position.
The thing with Mark Donnal is that he has the ability to score. It may not come from the post all the time, but he does put up some points I think most likely Donnal will take 5 minutes and Wilson 5 as a split backup for Doyle unless someone earns the minutes. I think if anyone does earn it it would be Donnal.I really can not see a 6 man rotation: My PREDICTION is
Pg Walton (30 min) Albrecht (20 min)
SG LeVert (30 min) MAAR (15 min)
SF Irvin (30 min) Robinson (7 min)
PF Dawkins (20 min) Chatman (8 min)
C Doyle (30 min) Donnal (5 min) Wilson (5 min)Red shirt for Wagner
Personally I would be disappointed if a top 20-40 recruit in Wagner would get redshirted. If he’s in fact that talented Michigan isn’t in a position to be redshirting talent like that.