I also think there is something worth noting. The departure of Max Bielfeldt. While JB said thanks but it is time to part ways look at what he is doing at Indiana. From a coaching stand point is he naive to think we had a good big or thought we actually would land Jaylen Brown. Either way thats something about his roster management worth noting.
Great point. We can’t continue to miss on top 50 guys, it’s killing this program. I mean for gods sake, we are relying on 2 300+ rated kids(MAAR, Dawkins) and a division 3 player and we play in the freaking big ten. How in the world are they suppose to keep up with the talent the big ten brings in? It’s damn near impossible.
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There are for more questions about personnel than there are answers at this point.
Well he did tell the staff a few days before he decided that he was coming, so yes he it.
Can you clarify I am not sure what you said. Michigan ran him out. Now he is at Indiana having a great year and helped them win the Big Ten doing great things. That is what I meant.
Recruiting ( especially BB ) can make or break you with one bad year. Stretch it to two, and you have disaster waiting to happen.
There is NO DOUBT in my mind that JB puts in just as much time as the next guy when it comes to hitting the gyms. Believe me he is out and about with consistent regularity, whether it be in season or on the summer circuit.
Our flirtation with top talent that has shown more than a passing interest in our program the last three years has been extremely high. Many kids love our history, tradition, name, and brand. Certainly enough to be initially interested in us when contacted and pursued.
The real issue is that for whatever reason they VERY SELDOM develop a love fest for potentially playing for our coach. Why? You can insert whatever potential disclaimer you personally adhere to going forward, but top ranked kids seemingly don’t want to sign on with JB. Why?
Every coach loves talent, and ours is certainly no different. But reality seems to intervene much to consistently to think that maybe these kids just don’t relate to him on his level. They certainly aren’t beating our door down to enroll.
I have to believe his personality, demeanor, lack of hipness, or out of touch with today’s athlete, is a legitimate variable to the constant rejection were subjected to. Sure he’s a nice guy with ethics and morals, but do the kids WANT to play for him?
It certainly isn’t our resources or facilities. My gosh our inherent institutional advantages should put us in play for 2-3 top talents every year on our initial recruiting contacts. Look how Harbaugh has revitalized our brand in only one year.
I look back on some of the top talent that we have “supposedly” really been in on, and wonder how in the world did EVERY ONE of them say “thanks but no thanks.” Is it our coach? Can it really be that coincidental?
Kennard, Booker, Bolden, Blackmon, Ali, Winston, Thornton, Battle, Leaf, Langford, Coleman-Lands, Brunson, Dozier, Brown, Davis, Huerter, Towns, Bailey, Looney… and 10 more I’ve probably forgotten.
We ARE after top talents, they just don’t want to play here. Which forces us to scramble and offer plan B guys consistently often.
I personally like our coach and don’t think there’s a chance in hell he’s fired before his contract is up, but gee whiz if your top recruits consistently spurn you, isn’t it time to look in the mirror and analyze why?
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You nailed it.
I agree completely! The shame of it is if his top recruits after the Mcgary class would of worked out better they may not be in this predicament. I am talking about Irvin, Walton and Chatman not living up to their rankings. If they were playing like Burke, Staukas and Robinson, things would certainly look different .
One more thing - a few years back when I was asserting JB is an above average/good coach as opposed to a great/elite coach folks would always throw the ESPN coaching rank up to me in an effort to essentially call me a troll. My response at the time was the same as it is now, JB was simply the flavor of the month at that time…he was coming fresh off a NC run of course he would be regarded that way. Being blunt, I don’t think there’s any way in hell JB is a top 10 coach.
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Getting paid like one
Neither do I, he may be top 25, but in no way is he top 10 in my eyes. Take away one year and we are looking at a good coach at BEST. it’s sad because he is a real nice guy, but I would say he is an average/good coach at best. Which we see in his overall record at Michigan. I’m confident in saying he will be here through 2020 but our program may be in serious trouble when he leaves.
Good posts, MattD. JB could be VERY dangerous if he’d just recruit the talent!!
I’m not a fan of his style of play, but I like him as a person.
I credit him for saving Michigan Basketball but at the same time, frustrates me that he won’t help himself.
While one can argue how much better we would be (maybe not a ton?), I think most people would concede that with Spike and Caris we’re in the tourney this year. And with Caris and Mitch last year we’re certainly a better team then.
Those are the breaks, and great coaches can maybe succeed despite them. I do think that there is an apparent bottleneck at the five that looks like a blunder, and will be very surprised if Davis doesn’t RS. I also think that there is a chance we will be okay next year, and make the tourney, and that that may not feel terribly satisfying, anyway. (I have a hard time seeing us contend for a B1G title.) The whole affair needs to be on a clear upswing next year, or the hounds will all be baying for blood.
I wish Beilein had had better luck, because some of the accumulated conditions may be hard to overcome. The notion that he is lazy or whatever is stupid, but it sure would have been great if he had landed one or two of his top targets; athleticism is indeed an issue. If I am a cold-blooded Manuel I bide my time for an absolute sure-fire superstar replacement, even if that takes three years. Because that’s what will be required to overcome Izzo’s advantage. Gotta be careful what you wish for because the cure could easily prove worse than the disease, and plunge basketball into another ten-year black hole.
love all of this and such great points would be such a waste if someone from MICHIGAN didnt see this (aka the AD MANUEL) so can someone make that happen haha, i didnt realize how bad coach JB was by those number
Great Post MattD.
I really enjoyed the reading/data.
I am in the “I love JB camp”. I am also in the camp that appreciates opinions that are against the grain of what I think. I appreciate MattD’s contribution here. We should be critical of JB. I disagree that JB is a bad recruiter (taken on the whole) and I disagree with the idea that there is a correlation between ranking and quality. Lots of people could argue back and forth about this all day long. Instead of spending a bunch time arguing about the correlation between quality and ranking I invite everyone to just use the rankings and build various “fantasy teams” and compare those teams to the “Ideal” team in terms of ranking. In building my teams I chose a point guard and center for each team and then just considered 2-4 as interchangeable wings.
Using Matt D’s numbers. Here are some teams I came up:
Ideal team based on rankings
Walton 30
Irvin 22
GR3 18 (Average ranking 27)
Chatman 38
Mcgary 27
Overrated team based upon rankings
Brundidge 75
Irvin 22
Smotrycz 84 (average player ranking 62)
Chatman 38
Donall 89
Fantasy team based upon quality
Burke 84
Stauskas 76
Levert 333 (Average ranking 108)
GR3 18
Mcgary 27
A very good team for comparison
Burke 84
Stauskas 76
Levert 330 (average player ranking 496)
Novak <1000
Morgan 1065
A decent but highly underrated team in terms of rankings
Spike 741
MAAR 531
Levert 330 (average player ranking 734)
Novak <1000
Morgan 1065
I would rank these teams in this order:
First place: Team with average player ranking of 108.
Second place: Team with average player ranking of 496.
Third place(Tie) : Team with average player of 27 tied with team with average player ranking of 734.
Fourth place: Team with average player ranking of 62.
Is there a single person out there that thinks the team with average ranking of 62 ( Brundidge, Irvin, Smot, Chatman, and Donnal) would beat my tied for third place team with an average ranking of 734 ( Spike, MAAR, Levert, Novak, Morgan)???
I totally agree that rankings are not the end all be all. That being said, its no coincidence that our 2 most successful teams under JB had the highest concentration of top 100 players, and top 100 starters. To that end it says one thing…you need talent to win, and that talent has a correlation with rankings to a certain extent.
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Sorry, when I just re-read my post I think I am misusing the word “correlation”. I should have been using the word “causality”, I think.
Agreed there, hard to utilize the word causality.
MattD, I have grown to appreciate your evaluations of players. I know that you are not equating rankings to quality…Not really trying to attack your post at all. I did find it fun to build those teams, though, and I think it is a useful exercise. I appreciated your above post in general and I am glad it is part of the conversation. I think we are all trying to figure out what is wrong with the team.