Duncan Robinson is on a historic pace

In 2010/2011, Jon Diebler set the Big Ten record for single season 3pt Pct. at 50.2% (minimum of 2.5 3pt FG per game).

In 2009/2010 Jon Diebler set the Big Ten record for 3pt FGs in a single season at 116. His numbers that season:
37 mpg
3.1 3ptFGM per game
7.5 3ptFGA per game

Duncan Robinson’s numbers this season:
24.1 mpg
3.6 3ptFGM per game
5.9 3ptFGA per game


What were Nik Stauskas’ three-point shooting stats in non-conference play as a freshman?

Update: Looked it up. Looks like he was 39 of 69 in pre-Big Ten play. So 56% and three makes per game.

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I can see Duncan hanging around the 50% throughout the year. If he can improve a little on the defensive end, there’s no reason he couldn’t play 30 minutes a game and shoot one or two more a game. Watching games, I am truly shocked when he misses.

Interestingly enough, Diebler shot better (53.3%) in conference play the year he set the percentage record. KenPom has a handful of articles on how 3pt% is not really affected by the defense much at all, though 3pt FGM is. I use to always think that better competition meant a likely drop in 3pt %, but that isn’t really the case. Players will make roughly the same % of threes they do take, they are just likely to take less threes against a teams that defend the perimeter well.

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Couldn’t agree with this more. It’s crazy that, at this point, it’d be just as shocking for Robinson to finish under 50% than over 50%? Since 1995/1996 (as far as Sports-Reference goes back), only one play in the Big Ten has finished higher than 48% with atleast 2.5 3pt FG per game.

A perfect example would be is when Duncan hit 6 3s in one half and didn’t shoot one in the second half because he was face guarded the whole time. He did shoot one in the second half but it was more of a chuck I believe, end of game maybe? Not sure who the opponent was.

You remember right. That was Northern Kentucky.

Here is one of the like… 4 or 5 articles he dedicated to researching the impact a defense has on 3pt%:

This paragraph gives another example:

"To illustrate why a team might have little control over its opponents’
three-point shooting, consider a ball screen situation. If a defender
goes under a ball screen, the ballhander, assuming he’s a good shooter,
will be inclined to shoot. If the defender goes over the screen, the
ballhandler’s response will not be to shoot a more difficult shot, it
will be to not shoot at all. In this way, defensive strategies tend to
impact the number of threes taken and not the percentage of threes made.
By the end of the season, opponents have taken a mix of open and
contested shots based on their own decisions, and from the defense’s
point of view the distribution of these decisions isn’t going to differ
much from team to team. Thus, the resulting rankings of defensive 3P%
are largely random, influenced some by opponents shooting ability. "

At the very least I would like to see him surpass Louis Bullock’s Michigan record for made threes (101) in one season. Anything less would be a disappointment.

Assuming Big Ten teams take the Northern Kentucky approach to defending Duncan, we really need Irvin to find his stroke. Caris won’t be able to single handedly carry this team when Duncan is a nonfactor. (see Xavier).

Duncan’s stroke is beautiful. It’ll be interesting to see what JB does to free him up now that teams have substantial film on him and will be prepared.

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Caris won’t, but it is a heck of a lot easier to carry a team when you are playing 4v4. Beilein talked about this some the other day (I think on his radio show).

Irvin is critical (as I talked about here http://www.umhoops.com/2015/12/21/a-closer-look-at-zak-irvins-development-and-shooting-slump/), but Walton can also knock down shots at a high-level. The other thing is that Michigan’s ability to get easy twos off of the ball screen grows when someone is denying Duncan 20 feet from the basket.


For sure. I think that Irvin’s shot and Walton’s health are the biggest keys to how high Michigan finishes in conference play.

The question that will have to be answered is, how will teams try to match up. Do they put their PF on Duncan to guard him and lose some rim protection or put the 4 on Irvin and let hm get to the rim? Our defense will struggle no matter what the other team does but do they play small against us or just put a bigger man on Duncan at the 3point line and have an advantage on offense and the boards? It’ll be interesting to see what teams try. Purdue and msrylsnd with their size seem like impossible games for Michigan to win without being on fire from 3 all game.

Exactly. In the second half of the Northern Kentucky game when NKU put a player out on Duncan and refused to let that player cheat off of Duncan the lane opened up and Caris and the TEAM benefited. So, while Duncan didn’t hit a shot (in the second half), he made a huge difference. I would love to have our “bigs” start playing a more dominant role, but, seriously, when Zac starts hitting threes again, as he will, watch out. This team could be almost indefensible! Oh, and as to the Duncan beoming a “nonfactor” comment, certainly in the NKU game he WAS a factor. If NKU had continued to “cheat” off Duncan threes would have “rained” in the second half as well.

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I’d like to see Duncan get some more 3’s off a ball screen.

Actually, I’d like to see more ball screens for him. I think his height/passing ability would make him a nice playmaker.


I think you will, but I don’t necessarily think it will be this season

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What I love is that our players (namely LeVert) actively looks to get Duncan an open shot. It’s nice that there is no selfishness involved and our team understands how effective a Duncan 3pt shot is. Like Dylan said earlier: Any possession that leads to an open 3pt shot for Duncan is a successful one.