Duren does intrigue me because I think he’s the youngest player in the draft.
I think I’m on the Shaedon Sharpe bandwagon. I think I get it now.
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Can I change my votes? Not at the top of the draft, but once you get past the first two tiers, I want to change my votes, probably several times a day.
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FWIW Mathurin & Griffin put up nearly identical freshman year performances and Kevin Pelton likes Griffin’s statistical translation better. Not super obvious why but Mathurin got a bit worse with more usage in year 2? Might also be that Griffin had a better HS recruiting profile.
KP stats + ranking model for those picked or on the board:
(1) Chet (1st in stats, 1st in big board rank)
(2) Jabari (8th & 2nd)
(3) Keegan Murray (4th & 5th)
(4) AJ Griffin (3rd & 8th)
(5) Walker Kessler (2nd & 19th)
(6) Jalen Duren (11th & 6th)
(7) Dyson Daniels (7th & 10th)
(8) Tari Eason (5th & 14th)
(9) Bennedict Mathurin (10th & 12th)
(10) Jeremy Sochan (9th & 16th)
(11) Paolo Banchero (51st & 3rd)
(12) Jaden Ivey (39th & 4th)
(18) TyTy Washington (50th & 11th)
(22) Johnny Davis (71st & 9th)
(28) Ochai Agbaji (70th & 13th)
The post is dated March 16, so the big board has probably moved around a bit and Shaedon Sharpe has declared since.
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AJ Griffin never impressed me when I watched but his shooting numbers (spot up, movement) are apparently all really good.
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Interesting that Banchero and Ivey are lower on this model. I think they are the most likely “busts” in the top 5 so I could see it.
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Has the potential to be an Ayton type. He’s a perfect fit to go with Cade as a lob threat/rim protector but his motor scares the heck out of me.
Re Duren, I’m worried he might be a bit of tweener. I don’t really know how mobile he actually is, as I only watched his recruiting highlights and 10 minutes of Memphis (pity), but I’m not sure he’s quite mobile enough to qualify as a mobile big like Siakam or Capela or big enough to guard a center like Ayton.
I kind of like Kessler above Duren.
I would be pretty skeptical of taking any 5’s in the, i dk, top 5? If I didn’t think had a massive, massive ceiling. It’s just so easy to find a guy who can do what you need at the 5 and so much harder at the wing.
I just am not excited about Mathurin. I’d rather have griffin.
What don’t you like about Mathurin? He’s a 6’7 guard who is athletic and can shoot. I actually really like his game and have him 5th or 6th on my board.
I didn’t see much out of Griffin this year when I watched Duke besides him shooting the ball. Really good shooter, but IMO there’s not much else to his game at this point.
I’d consider him after the top 7, but my top 7 are pretty firm. And for the Pistons 7 is as low as they can go unless they are able to acquire another pick via trade.
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What I see from Duren is frustration in recruiting highlights and playing at Memphis. AAU is a guard oriented chucker league and Memphis is coached by Penny Hardaway (say nothing more). In my view his athleticism is at the Ayton level but needs good coaching. If the Pistons get very unlucky and fall back to 7 or 8 I would say take a close look.
absolutely open to that … total agreement on my ignorance (and if there’s any doubts, pls consult my wife.)
I think Kessler could be better value later than Duren earlier, but in the worst-case scenario in which the Pistons pick 7th, you have to consider Duren. Greek God body for the 5 spot. I’ll take that on a rookie deal over four years of Ayton at the max.
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FINAL UMHOOPS PISTONS DRAFT BOARD
1 - Jabari Smith
2 - Chet Holmgren
3a - Paolo Banchero
3b - Jaden Ivey
5a - Shaedon Sharpe
5b - Keegan Murray
7 - Bennedict Mathurin
Mathurin is running away with the last poll which means there’s a real drop off after the Top 7 (which is good because that’s the lowest the Pistons can fall and there’s only a 7% chance of that.)
I expected Jabari to be at the top. A little surprised that the polarizing Chet is second on the list. I could see Sharpe moving up as more is learned about his game. His shooting stroke looks good and if he can provide two things the Pistons lack (shooting and athleticism) maybe the wisdom of the crowd will shift towards him over Ivey.
On to the Draft Lottery… Fingers crossed…
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I think it’s the comps to KCP and Q that put me off. Both of those guys have enough moments where they seem like they could be the 2nd best guy on a good team, so the team they’re on sticks with them. Actually they need to be like the 4th guy. Just a style that seems like it puts a lid on where a team can go.
Unless Detroit drafts him, then he’s clearly a stud because we love weaver!
Chet looks so tall next to Jabari and Paolo.
For what it’s worth, I’d bet Mathurin is not a top 7 pick. Not saying he should t be, saying he won’t.
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I liked it better when the lottery was just a little thing that happened at halftime of a playoff game. Now it’s basically NBA Draft: the Prequel.
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5th. Could be worse
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