Obviously the sample is small enough on Cade so who knows but I don’t see him as an SGA level player. If I had to pick Ivey or Jalen Williams, I’d probably take Ivey but it’s closer than you’d think (I think Ivey is a higher ceiling player than Cade, who I think, actualized, is Khris Middleton?). Duren has rebounded well, but his complete lack of rim protection has me unsure if he’s ever a starter.
Obviously have more faith in OKC’s leadership. As @hack notes, OKC got a head start in terms of actually having marketable players to trade for stuff, but that Paul George trade that netted SGA, Jalen Williams, Tre Mann, and more picks to come….wow
Yeah, just depends on how Cade looks in year 3 and who they draft in this upcoming draft.
If Cade looks like a future top 10 player, and the 2023 draft pick hits, then Detroit has a very good core between Cade, Ivy, Duren and 2023.
But Weaver has definitely not done an awesome job. Multiple horrible decisions and it’s clear he blew the first draft of the rebuild despite spending a ton of resources on it since neither Hayes, Stewart nor Bey are starting-caliber players in the long term.
I get why he did it because the ball was going towards the corner but Hampton doubles Giddey after OKC wins the tip. Omoruyi essentially has to “play 2” then between Joe on the perimeter and Dort (his man). Dort is obviously the bigger threat because he is open right at the rim so that’s a good rotation (and box out) from Livers.
It’s Joseph’s job to then sink down and box out Jalen Williams, but he doesn’t see it. At this point, time is really low so Omoruyi should probably crash down harder too. If I was placing blame, though, I’d probably start with Joseph for not sinking down but also mention Hampton, although I understand why he chased the loose ball how he did.
(this is also a great example of how quickly things happen in basketball and often times you need a re-watch to see how it all unfolded).
I think you can feel good about a healthy Cade. His numbers are really weighted down by games where he was coming back from an injury.
And I think you can feel good about Ivey and either Duren or Wiseman (probably Duren who’s a dominant rebounder and surprisingly good passer.)
You can also feel good about their next pick and all the cap space they’ll have. If they don’t take the kind of leap next year that OKC and Orlando made this year, then you’re in trouble.
Not a huge fan of Stewart. On O, can’t really play much C because he can’t catch a ball on the PnR, and is a really horrible PF because he has no wing skills and so far is only a 32% shooter. On D, he’s a good defender but definitely has major weaknesses at either spot he plays to the point where he’s not really dominant there.
I feel like if he became a knockdown shooter, that’s a path to being an effective 5th starter, but I don’t see that happening and him ever becoming more than a net-negative on offense.
And yeah if your #1 overall pick busts, your rebuild is basically done.
I mean, all it takes is one to completely change the arc of the rebuild. If the Pistons get the top pick, I’ll immediately like their future even more than OKC and Orlando. A lot of hopes and prayers on a lottery ball though.
I don’t think either of those bigs are a starter, barring significant defensive improvement (someone on this team needs to block a shot a game). I think Cade’s strength is not in his top-end talent but that he has a really well-rounded game that can fit next to all sort of (better) players. You need him to play on ball some because your best offensive players need to be set up? He can do that. Your best offensive player needs the ball? Well he’s a good catch & shooter and secondary playmaker. Need him at the 3 even? Sure! There is a ton of value there, but I wouldn’t want to count on him to be the best player on a 50 win team. I think the hope is that Ivey (and/or whoever they pick this year) pops and then Cade is a top notch “Robin”.
and yeah, @adamsmit86 my “trepidation” is more that Detroit is still searching for “the guy” to the degree I don’t think OKC or Orlando are (I’d also take those teams #2 and #3 guys over Detroits). If they get “the guy” in this draft that changes things.
Duren will be fine as a rim protector. The team has no wing defense. Like none. With at least a modicum of resistance there (and more awareness on his part) I think he shows out better.
I don’t follow them well enough to offer much insight. It does feel like they are building a “good” but not “great” core so far but there is still so much uncertainty. Duren is super young and both Cade and Ivey spent their first season forced to be the primary play-maker on a bad team trying to lose. What happens when they actually are all working together and trying to win? I think Stew is a good rotation piece and the young guys are going to be fine. There does clearly need to be an injection of more talent, however. Maybe it will come from this pick or maybe they need to trade for one. Orlando is probably a better comp for where they should be next year than OKC.
The thing w Cade’s injury is even if he was average or so this year you’re still looking at a ton of missing wins vs the 28 Vegas expected. It’s just really not obvious who is going to be a for sure above average starter on this team rn.
Rebuild needs to keep going until you get organic take off from your lottery picks.
Who do you view as the #1 guy in Orlando? Like you, I’m very high on SGA so I see OKC, but I think on a good team Franz and Banchero are more secondary stars. I still think Orlando may need a guy to take that next step. They do have a larger quantity of quality young talent than the Pistons though.
Cade, Ivey, Wemby, Duren would be a really nice foundation. I will definitely be nervous on lottery night. There is such a big dropoff from #1 to #2. And then another dropoff from #2 to #3 and beyond. Hopefully being the worst team in the NBA this year pays off.
Yeah, it’s possible. Not a given, but he has some tools to work with. I never understood why people were overthinking the draft last year and basically making Banchero the #3 player on the draft board. I absolutely would have wanted the Pistons to take him #1 if they won the lottery.
Yeah, remains to be seen, but I think Paolo shows a ton of promise. And yeah, it just seemed very clear even at the time that Banchero’s peak was so much higher than Jabari Smith. Smith’s value proposition was something like JJJ with less defense right? A high volume shooter who can defend fives. Even if we pretend he actualized that…is that as valuable as Banchero, whose peak is “hub of your entire offense”?
also re: NBA team building I think the “just get a bunch of average-ish young-ish guys” approach is an underrated way to build a team. depth really really matters in the regular season and it’s an easy to way to establish a floor for your team. one of those dudes is going to take off at some point and the rest are assets you can deal to flesh out the team.
Banchero’s tailed off quite a bit and is a non-defender. Excels at watching teammates dive for loose balls. Cade>Banchero. I think OKC is looking a lot better than Orlando.
Again, I caution taking me seriously with NBA takes here, but to me this was an example of the NBA approach to drafting talent. People saw Banchero as Carlos Boozer - a highly effective long-term player with a high floor but modest ceiling. He’ll be in the league for years and his team will like having him in their rotation. At the same time, his ceiling wasn’t “all-NBA” because of his athleticism and defense. So NBA teams get all excited about guys like Jabari Smith who oozes that potential to be “all-NBA” but may also just be a great athlete who will never quite figure out how to be a star.
I think the Pistons have drafted about as well as they could have for the last couple years. But before that I personally think they did badly (never did like Kennard over Mitchell, Hayes over Haliburton and others, etc). But the few who did well, succeeded only after they left the Pistons, which also speaks to coaching, talent evaluation, roster construction, player development etc. If the team doesn’t significantly improve next year, then they may be closer to a Houston scenario than OKC, and need to start looking at these other areas of the org.