Def agree, that’s a very important trait. Timing, awareness, instincts, quickness can all make up for reach being pretty meh.
Yeah I don’t know if it’s instincts or tools, but Williams is an awesome defender who covers a lot of ground and can check wings and slow guards for 2 or 3 dribbles. He’s like 98th 99th percentile for that specific job. Which is not a knock on Isaiah, who can be much worse than that and still be rotation-level player.
This is how I view the Pistons roster-wise:
Cade: Starter
Ivey: Starter/Rotation depending on how well he plays in a game
Bey: Starter
Beef-Stew: Rotation
Olynyk: Rotation
Hayes: Rotation
Burks: Rotation
Bagley: Bench
Livers: Rotation
Noel: Rotation
Duren: Rotation with potential to be a starter
Knox: Bench
McGruder: Bench
Joseph: Bench
Diallo: Roation/Bench
Big key for Pistons is continued development of Cade, Bey, Beef Stew and Livers. They also need Ivey and Duren to develop into starter so that leaves a starting wing, preferably SF in 3 and D mold. The roster is better talent wise but not quite there obviously. They’re a draft away from really making a heavy push to the playoff contention.
Stewart is also a Top 10 offensive rebounder. So I hope they don’t go overboard with just having him shoot threes at the expense of his ability to add possessions.
Was talking to my close friend a diehard Pistons fan and he broke it down to he still thinks they won’t be good maybe even bad but if everything is healthy you can tell early their intention. If they come out starting
PG Cunningham
SG Burks
SF Bey
PF Stewart
C Bagley or Olynyk
then they are working towards really trying to win. If it’s
PG Cunnigham
SG Ivey
SF Bey
PF Stewart
C Bagley-Olynyk
then it’s another top 5 pick. He believes Cunnigham playing 75 games should get them another 4-5 wins alone. I can’t disagree with that.
I would be really frustrated if Ivey plays less than 28 min a game this year. That would be a real what are we doing here moment.
I would just say that Alec Burks is not so singularly talented to be the gap between a playoff run and the lottery on his own.
To clarify my thing on Bagley, and I think it’s been caricatured - much of it does not have to do with Bagley (though I think he’s a bad player being paid well).
It is also about having 5 centers
And mainly it’s about moving Stewart away from what he does best, and limiting opportunity for Duren - the two centers who I think have a future.
I like you better when your takes are
Having said that, all this is pretty reasonable. Especially the 5 C point. It’s a baffling set of decisions that get you there re Noel and Bagley.
When does the tour start? We desperately need something to talk about …
Ivey can still play 20+ a night and not start.
If Ivey can play 20+ a night and not start, your original post is hard to understand. The difference between trying to win and a top-5 pick is ~5 minutes difference between Ivey and Alec Burks?
For me, a try-to-win-now lineup would be more: Cunningham, Burks, Bey, Olynyk, Stewart. There are a couple vets and the lineup provides good floor spacing. Rebounding is an issue, but there is no true lineup for Detroit that can win now without flaws. Replacing Burks with Ivey and swapping Olynyk for Bagley, Duren, or even Livers, would indicate to me they just want the core to get experience playing together for future seasons.
The lineup that ends games probably says more about whether they are trying to win.
FWIW, I think they’ll be a mid to late lottery team, get one more lottery pick and then use cap space to extend Bey and Stewart and add a couple Myles Turner/Caris Levert level free agents.
I am not worried about 5 centers. Stewart can play 4 and 5. I don’t expect Noel and Olynyk to stay the whole season. They’ll play minutes early trying to boost their value a bit and then moved to a team looking for rim protection or a stretch big. Then Duren plays a ton late in the season. We know he’s raw so I doubt he’s ready for 20mpg early.
With as much small ball that goes on in the league Stewart will play plenty at the five.
FWIW Draft Kings NBA regular season futures from the bottom up:
Spurs - 23.5
Rockets - 23.5
Pacers - 24.5
Magic - 25.5
Thunder - 26.5
Pistons - 28.5
If that’s entirely Cade and the young core going HAM, then you’re happy. If you’re ending up farther from the Scoot/Victor sweepstakes bc you played too many vets who were never going to be a part of your next great team, that’s a problem.
My focus would be getting as much time together for Cade, Ivey, Bey, Duren, Stewart, and Livers as possible and playing vets when they help make lineups make more sense. E.g. Olynyk helps your spacing so Cade can operate, Burks takes some pressure off Ivey when Cade is out, that kind of stuff. I don’t understand starting or closing with them unless you think it’s a development problem.
The only one of the young core that isn’t going to get significant playing time is Duren. And he’s raw and only 18 so there’s no rush to give him minutes unless he’s ready for them. And if he is, they will as Casey has had no problem paying the young players in crunch minutes
My preferred rotation:
PG: Cade
SG: Ivey
SF: Bey
PF: Hami (a Bruce Brown style PF)
C: Stewart
Liberally rotating in: Killian, Burks, Livers, Olynyk, Duren
To get outside of my Bagley stuff
If I were the twin GM/Coach and were able to dictate lineups and personnel, I’d run the team without an intent to get in the playoffs and do something like this:
Starters:
Cade
Ivey
Bey
Livers
Stewart
The other 5 I’d play would be Hayes, Diallo, Burks, Olynyk, Duren
Our starting lineup is small but at least has 3.5 guys who can make a three (Ivey being 0.5 at this juncture)
If we want to go big, we can play Kelly or Stew at the 4 next to Stew or Duren
Burks and Kelly there to provide some spacing for the bench because the Hayes/Diallo combo won’t do it
I would start Stewart and Noel at the 4 and 5 and play them regular starter minutes in those positions. Noel is a good analogue to Duren and that lets you really try out Stewart in the position you’re imagining him filling. It also has the benefit of keeping Noel engaged and allowing him to market himself. I wouldn’t view that only as a chasing wins decision.
I would guess Burks is a better player right now that Ivey and normally that implies he has to start, but I think the players understand that it’s hard to deny the potential of a high lottery pick, even if he isn’t necessarily the better player. So if Pistons end up starting Burks, I would call that chasing wins (and be disgruntled).
I dk, I think he’s more ready than a lot of guys who are a year or two older than him. He showed in college and summer league that those levels don’t challenge him.
Yeah if you wanted to say Bagley instead of Duren to start the year I wouldn’t argue, but I don’t think Duren is as far off as is made out.